On March 4th, 65438 this week, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the market price changes of major means of production in the first half of March 2022. The price of live pigs (foreign three yuan) 12.3 yuan/kg decreased by 1.6% compared with the previous period.
National hog market price data since 20 14 Source: Wind, National Bureau of Statistics.
From the beginning of 20 14 to the beginning of March, 2022, the national market price of live pigs (foreign ternary) reached the lowest point of 20 18, 9.9 yuan/kg in early May and 12.3 yuan/kg in early March this year, which was far from the lowest point of 9.9 yuan/kg in recent eight years.
However, compared with the first bottom of the hog price in this cycle (202 1 year 65438+1early October), the price is 10.5 yuan/kg, which is only 1.8 yuan.
Huarong Rongda Futures believes that in terms of supply, from the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the number of piglets has not decreased significantly in recent months, and the supply of pigs in the first half of the year is sufficient; In terms of consumption, March-May is still the traditional off-season, and it is difficult to bear huge supply.
Huaan Futures believes that feed prices have risen sharply and farmers' profits have further declined, and they are willing to pay the price.
However, due to the release of production capacity, the supply of pigs continues to increase, and the price of pigs is difficult to get support.
Purchasing and storage has limited boost to pig prices. After the announcement of the second batch of purchasing and storage news, the price of pigs fell instead of rising.
Pig prices may rebound in the near future, but the trend is still in the downward cycle.