The sharp rise in oil prices should be said to be only a market panic, and the structural supply crisis is far from coming. Although the situation in Libya has been confusing. But judging from the whole oil supply structure in the world, Libya's share is not large. The main problem is that the oil price itself is on the inflation track. The bigger reason is speculation. "
Judging from the energy supply at this time, it is more global. In the past, there were several oil crises near the Persian Gulf. Today, Latin America, West Africa and Eastern Europe have all become new energy sources. In 2009, Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest producer of crude oil. The share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in global crude oil production has also dropped from 565,438+0% in the 1970s to 40% today.
At the same time, Fu Chengyu, chairman of CNOOC, also expressed the view that in the short or long term, the flood of liquidity, the weakness of the US dollar and the expected depreciation of the US dollar will lead to the continuous rise of oil prices, and the era of low oil prices will never return. China should be prepared to deal with long-term high oil prices.
To put it simply, the oil price at this time is not the relationship between rising and falling. When the situation is good, it rises slowly, and when the situation is bad, it rises quickly.
At this time, the main problem comes from market demand, especially the demand of global economic recovery. The daily demand for oil increased by 2.7 million barrels year-on-year, and all major countries were at full capacity. The only countries that can provide surplus production are the countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
According to us energy information administration's data, Saudi Arabia can still have nearly 4 million barrels of excess capacity every day, and the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait add up to nearly 6.5438+0 million barrels. This is similar to OPEC's own claim that it can increase production by 6 million barrels per day.
International oil prices skyrocketed.
International oil prices rebounded sharply on Thursday, with Brent crude oil futures and US crude oil futures both soaring by more than 10%, recovering the huge lost ground during the global market turmoil earlier this week, which benefited from market speculation that Venezuela called for an emergency meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the global stock market rebound and the slowdown in supply, which gave birth to a short covering-style rebound.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Venezuela contacted members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and urged an emergency meeting with Russia to work out a plan to curb the sharp drop in oil prices.
Brent crude oil futures price closed up 4.42 USD on Thursday, up 10.25% to 47.56 USD/barrel; NYMEX crude oil futures prices in the United States closed up $3.96, or 10.26%, at $42.56/barrel on Thursday. The surge in China's stock market eased the market's worries about the country's economy, and promoted the general rise of commodities after this week's selling. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 5.3%. On Wednesday, the US stock market broke the trend of falling for six consecutive days, creating the biggest one-day gain in nearly four years. Analysts said that the rise of securities assets supported the general rise of so-called risky assets such as oil and copper.