I have been reflecting on many things over the years and suddenly found that all the successes and failures are largely determined by the general trend rather than my own personal ability.
Many years ago, I wrote an article about China stock market, in which I mentioned the reason why I left the stock market. Suddenly I feel that my ability, diligence and luck are not as good as others. Why should I make money with others in a fully competitive market?
My only chance to make a profit is actually only one, that is, when pigs can make money, I have a chance to make money. That is, when the wind blows in, such as 2006, such as 2009, at that time, the streets and alleys will hear who earned how much and how much, so that I have a chance to make money.
If I am in an unusual money-making market, I find that making money is generally hard money, that is, it takes more time and research than others to make money. This is hard money. Sadly, the fiercer the market competition, the sadder you will find that even if you work hard, you can't make money.
Later, I went out to see many problems and found that not only the stock market, but also any industry seems to be similar.
In 2002, many of our classmates left China to study in the United States, all of which were prestigious schools, leaving us at home. Ten years later, we did nothing in China, got married and had children, and then had nothing to do, so we bought a house, one set, two sets, three or four sets. Then we found that those students who had studied abroad for n years might be even worse, and they might not be able to afford a house when they returned home.
Are we capable? No, it's because we caught up with the good times. In the pattern of China's great development, our ability is actually unnecessary. We are also very sad to find that when we go back to our hometown, even those students who have not been admitted to the university are not as good as them.
After graduating from junior high school and high school, I began to wander the rivers and lakes, getting in touch with the society earlier and doing foreign trade business earlier. But because you may have graduated from college, you have more choices, but not as good as their accumulation, especially in the real estate industry, which earned the most money in this decade. Generally speaking, it is courage rather than ability.
Dongyang is the hometown of architecture, and many people have been running projects all over the country since they were very young. They all made a lot of money in the past ten years. On the other hand, we boast that we graduated from a prestigious school, but in fact we are not as good as them. Of course, the trend is changing now. In the pattern of the Internet, this trend is different under the real estate recession, and the profit logic has also changed.
I met a young man who came out to start a business the other day. At that time, he probably recruited several undergraduates all over the country. He beat countless people and finally squeezed in. Those who were defeated by him suddenly walked into Ali's door.
At that time, Ali accommodated a group of rabble, many of whom were graduates from vocational and technical schools, and few famous schools. More than ten years have passed, and the genius who entered the undergraduate course is now starting a business. Those who have no choice but to go to Ali are worth over 100 million yuan. Do you want to invest money in the cattle who are cornered by the cow? It seems not.
A few days ago, I chatted with Huang Xiao Jie Brothers (the founder of Jiuding Investment). When he was studying at Wudaokou, he talked about skipping classes and selling air conditioners, hoping to make a fortune. As a result, he sold it for more than a year, went back to school in the dark sun, and then said a word, trying not to make money.
It's almost what I thought. This is simply a truth. In this world, it is never difficult to make money.
Are you harder than those Foxconn workers and farmers? But do they make more money than you? So in this world, if an industry wants to make money by comparing its ability, you will find that it seems that it can only make hard money. What is more difficult is that even many people can't earn hard money, such as a bunch of hard Taobao e-commerce.
There are many entrepreneurs now. I've always told you that it's important to choose the right direction when starting a business, because making big money and making small money is actually very hard and difficult. It is not necessarily easier for you to open a small shop on the roadside to make money than to be a state-owned enterprise. It's not easy, but it's equally hard, and the result is completely different.
At this time, the general pattern and trend are very important. Try to do something with trend opportunities. As long as you do it a little better, there will always be opportunities. However, in some industries, no matter what you do, the final result will not be good.
When we invest in a time to earn hard money, we will find that we can only earn the average social rate of return, so we finally find that the conclusion is actually to downplay the importance of ability as much as possible.
Pay more attention to investment opportunities in the trend. In the pattern of megatrends, it is difficult to quantify and accurately predict a certain degree of investment capacity. However, the vision of the megatrend still has some logic to follow.
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