It is understood that the recent decline in feed prices is mainly due to the decline in soybean meal prices.
At present, the price of soybean meal in Shandong and other places is as early as 4200-4400 yuan/ton, which is nearly 1000 yuan/ton lower than the high point in March.
Supposedly, farmers should be happy about the feed price reduction, but after understanding, most farmers are indifferent to the feed price reduction. Why? Look at the specific situation:
Soybean meal plummeted 1000 yuan, and the feed ushered in a long-lost price reduction.
Since last June 165438+ 10, the domestic soybean meal price has been rising all the way.
In the middle and late March, the spot price rose by nearly 2000 yuan/ton.
The increase of soybean meal price is mainly affected by the reduction of soybean production in South America.
According to the data estimated by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in March, Brazil is expected to reduce production by 6,543,800 tons this year.
Argentina reduced production by 6 million tons.
However, at this stage, South American soybeans are coming to Hong Kong.
Statistics show that about 6.5 million tons of soybeans were originally expected to arrive in Hong Kong in March, but some of them failed to arrive in Hong Kong in time due to the epidemic.
From April to May, the number of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong was about 8 million tons. When the stored soybeans are put on the market, the tight supply of soybeans will be alleviated, and the price of soybean meal will appear "diving" mode.
It is nearly 1000 yuan/ton lower than the March high.
After the price reduction of soybean meal, some feed enterprises announced to reduce the feed price. The intermediate full-price feed is lowered by 50- 100 yuan per ton, and the concentrate is lowered by 200 yuan per ton.
Feed prices have decreased, but the loss situation of farmers is difficult to change.
This week coincides with the end of the month and the beginning of the month, and the monthly slaughter plan of large-scale farms is acceptable. The reduction of pig slaughter, coupled with the escalation of traffic control under the COVID-19 epidemic, has affected pig transportation.
The supply of pigs is tight, and it is more difficult for slaughter enterprises to collect pigs at low prices, so they are forced to raise prices to collect pigs.
However, terminal consumption has not improved significantly for the time being. During the Qingming holiday, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of people returning home to worship their ancestors decreased.
On the whole, there are no obvious favorable factors on the demand side, and the increase in pig prices in the week is only supported by tight supply.
After the Qingming holiday, the market scale will increase gradually.
The epidemic situation in COVID-19 continues to affect pork consumption, and there is insufficient motivation for pig prices to rise. Market Bao predicts that pig prices may fall after adjustment in the coming week.
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