The international gold market is a complex market, and the price of gold is affected by many factors, such as inflation, dollar trend, economic data, emergencies and so on.
The price of gold is calculated by weight. There are several weighing methods in precious metals and gemstones market. The most commonly used system is the troy system, and one troy ounce is about 31.10g; An ounce is about 28.35 grams.
This price is the dollar price per ounce of gold.
The rise in the price of gold will affect the currency prices of some countries.
According to these factors, investors can make a relatively basic judgment and grasp of the trend of gold prices.
There are mainly three kinds of gold prices in the world: market price, production price and quasi-official price. Other kinds of gold prices are derived from this.
Market prices include spot and futures prices. These two prices are both related and different. These two prices are restricted and interfered by many factors, such as supply and demand, which change greatly and the price determination mechanism is very complicated.
What is important is that spot prices and futures prices are affected by similar factors, so the direction and magnitude of changes are basically the same.
However, due to the convergence of market trends, the basis of gold (that is, the difference between the spot price of gold and the futures price) will continue to decrease as the futures delivery date approaches. At the delivery date, the futures price and spot price of the transaction are roughly equal. Theoretically, the futures price should stably reflect the spot price plus the holding cost of a specific delivery period.
Influencing factors:
1. dollar trend
The exchange rate of US dollar is also one of the important factors that affect the fluctuation of gold price. The impact of the dollar on the gold market mainly has two aspects:
First, the dollar is the price mark currency in the international gold market, so it is negatively related to the price of gold. Assuming that the value of gold itself has not changed, the dollar has fallen and the price of gold has risen;
On the other hand, gold is an alternative investment tool for dollar assets. In fact, in the past few years, the price of gold has been rising continuously, and one of the main factors is that the dollar has fallen sharply for three consecutive years.
2. Political situation
Historically, gold has been the best hedge. The so-called cannon ringing gold is a perfect interpretation of the safe-haven value of gold. Any war or political turmoil will often push up the price of gold, and emergencies will often make the price of gold soar sharply in a short period of time.
3. Inflation
As the only non-credit currency in the world, gold is different from paper money, deposits and other currencies, and has extremely high value. Unlike other currencies, which are only representatives of value, its own value can be ignored.
In extreme cases, money will be equivalent to paper, but gold will never lose its value as a precious metal. Therefore, it can be said that gold can be regarded as a representative of eternal value.
4. Supply factors
The fluctuation of gold price is based on the relationship between supply and demand. If the output of gold increases significantly, the price of gold will be affected and fall back. In addition, the application of new gold mining technology, the discovery of new mines and the sale of gold by the central bank will all put pressure on the price of gold. If you enter a big gold consuming country such as India, there will be miners at the peak of gold consumption or during a long strike, and the overall supply is less than demand, and the price of gold will benefit from the increase.
5. Demand factors
(1) Changes in the actual demand for gold (jewelry industry, industry, etc. ).
(2) the need to preserve value.
(3) Speculative demand.