It is rare to announce the open market operation one day in advance. The central bank announced in advance, mainly to stabilize investors' expectations. However, considering that nearly one trillion yuan of open market operations expired on February 3, the net liquidity is only about 200 billion yuan.
Ming Ming, deputy director of CITIC Securities Research Institute, told the Securities Times reporter that although there is only a net liquidity of about 200 billion yuan, compared with the previous monetary policy operation after the Spring Festival holiday, this scale is quite large. "After the Spring Festival holiday in the past, the market liquidity supply was relatively abundant, and the central bank rarely launched a large-scale open market. The net investment of about 200 billion yuan is not small. "
Color, chief economist of Founder Securities, told the Securities Times reporter that in the face of the epidemic, the current macro-policy hedging means should still focus on fiscal policy, and directly help small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households affected by the epidemic through financial measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction and financial subsidies. As for monetary policy, the current task is mainly to cooperate with fiscal policy and provide sufficient short-term liquidity for the market. Therefore, it is expected that there will be monetary policy tools such as Standing Loan Facility (SLF), rediscount and refinancing to accurately deliver short-term liquidity in the coming week.
"In order to cope with the epidemic, monetary policy operation has two main objectives in the short term." According to the color, firstly, in order to cope with the short-term liquidity shock, the reverse repurchase operation of 1.2 trillion yuan is a one-time sequel to the upcoming open market operation to stabilize market expectations. Second, by observing the trend of the capital market, especially for the possible overshoot of the stock market in the future, some precise control policies have been introduced. These precise control measures are mainly limited to capital market operations, rather than traditional monetary policies.
As for whether the central bank will stabilize financial market expectations by lowering RRR and cutting interest rates? Color thinks that the probability is low in the next week or two. As many enterprises have not resumed work, credit demand is sluggish, and inflationary pressure is further affected by the epidemic, the expected probability of stabilizing the financial market by reducing RRR and cutting interest rates is low, and it is expected to be realized after one or two weeks of implementation of measures such as reducing RRR and promoting interest rate cuts in the medium term.
Obviously, the next goal of the central bank is to continue to reduce the financing cost of the real economy. Whether the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market can be lowered in February is the key. This may require a series of policy combinations to promote the reduction of LPR, including unblocking the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through reform, adjusting regulatory assessment indicators and reducing policy interest rates.