Why is everything skyrocketing?
I. International Environment Through news reports, we can clearly know that the epidemic situation in foreign countries is still not optimistic, and many enterprises cannot operate normally. However, in China, due to the proper control of the epidemic, we are returning to work in an orderly manner. Therefore, the demand of many foreign trade fields in our country is growing at a high speed, so the demand for raw materials is increasing, which leads to the phenomenon that the supply of raw materials is in short supply, which will inevitably lead to the rise of raw material prices.
Second, environmental factors With the development of the country, the degree of attention to environmental protection is also strengthening, and the country has also stepped up its efforts to rectify those industries and enterprises with high energy consumption and low output, which is another factor that leads to the rise of steel prices.
Third, the monetary environment In order to cope with the consumption lag caused by the epidemic, major developed countries have opened floodgates to release water. On the one hand, some countries and regions have reduced interest rates to zero or even negative interest rates. On the other hand, the Bank of China also sent money to the economy through the expansion of its balance sheet, and the abundant monetary environment laid the foundation for the rise of raw materials.
Four. Network development At present, the development of global network makes the information spread very fast, and the transparency of any commodity price has increased unprecedentedly. However, international trade is easily restricted by shipping, climate, politics, natural disasters and many other factors. , leading to the continuous superposition of artificial market operation opportunities, contributing to the rise in commodity prices.
Friends who speculate in commodity futures recently should have made a lot of money. The prices of domestic raw materials such as iron ore, coal, oil, soybeans, corn, copper, etc. are rising continuously. The main reasons are as follows.
First, inflation began to appear.
The biggest black swan in 2020 is the COVID-19 epidemic, which will not only prevent people from going out to work normally, but also have the greatest direct impact on the economies of various countries. In 2020, our country's GDP will increase by 2.3%, which is already a very good result. The United States, Japan, developed countries in Europe, etc. The impact was even greater, and GDP showed negative growth.
In order to stimulate the economy, almost all countries in the world have implemented quantitative easing policies. Although the word quantitative easing seems abstruse, it actually means that the government provides more funds to the market by borrowing, cutting interest rates and reducing RRR. The United States invested billions of dollars in currency last year, and we actually invested a lot. After these hot money enters the accounts of enterprises and individuals, it stimulates their consumption and investment and makes the economy work.
Quantitative easing can indeed stimulate economic development, but the negative effects are also great and have begun to appear.
As we all know, more money will naturally depreciate, and the prices of various assets will rise. Financial assets took the lead in raising prices, and both US stocks and A shares rose a lot last year.
After the price of financial assets rises, it is the turn of commodities such as raw materials. There is too much money in the market and there is no reservoir. But commodities can absorb these extra currencies without corresponding productivity. As a result, prices naturally rose sharply.
Second, some domestic raw materials are in short supply.
For example, iron ore is a typical example. China's steel output ranks first in the world, after all, large-scale infrastructure is the pillar industry of the country. Iron ore is needed for steelmaking, but domestic iron ore can't meet the demand and has to be imported.
Generally speaking, we will import iron ore from Australia. Last year, their prices rose. A friend said that iron ore can be imported from other countries. Yes, Africa and Brazil also have iron ore. However, the quality of iron ore in these areas is not good, and Australian iron ore is needed to produce good steel. Therefore, Brazil and Africa cannot completely replace Australia, and only Australia has qualified iron ore internationally.
It is for this reason that some raw materials are in strong domestic demand and there are not many choices in the world, so foreign companies can only raise prices.
Third, the impact of rising raw materials on the people.
Inflation is conductive, and raw materials are used to make basic industrial products. The rising prices of raw materials and basic industrial products are finally transmitted to the daily consumer goods that everyone buys.
There was a wave of agricultural and sideline products before, and pork, vegetables and eggs rose sharply years ago. Everyone still remembers it. In addition to the practice of raising prices before the Spring Festival, inflation is a very important factor.
Gradually, daily consumer goods will also increase in price. I read some news that the cost of household appliances is getting higher and higher, and the biggest factor leading to the rising cost is the price increase of basic industrial products. If home appliance manufacturers want to make money, the rising cost can only be passed on to consumers.
The rise of raw materials is a conspiracy of western developed countries and a means for them to pass on the domestic crisis.
In order to pass on the domestic crisis, western countries have done two things: 1, printing money crazily, diluting their own debts, exporting inflation, and diluting the rights and purchasing power of others; 2. Squeeze other countries, increase their production costs and reduce their operating profits.
In the world industrial division system, western developed countries are consumers and China is a producer. Producers import all kinds of raw materials, process them into all kinds of commodities and sell them to consumers, earning meager processing fees to support their families.
The epidemic has come, and economic and financial crises have occurred in western countries (consumer countries). They can't solve the crisis internally, so they have to try their best to transfer it out and pass it on to the producing countries.
It is not difficult to understand this situation. Just like the poor management of enterprises, bosses will try their best to lower the wages and benefits of employees or even lay off employees directly.
In order to alleviate the epidemic crisis, in 2020, the United States printed 3.2 trillion US dollars, Japan printed 5 trillion US dollars, and the total amount of money printed by the eight major economies in the world was close to 100 trillion RMB.
As central banks release a large amount of money, global liquidity is rampant, and it is inevitable that a rising tide lifts all boats. Almost everything will increase in price, and raw materials are no exception.
Under the crazy printing of money, the national debt of the United States has depreciated sharply, and the debts of western developed countries will also depreciate. China's US Treasury bonds and US dollar reserves, rights and purchasing power will all depreciate, which is the power for western countries to export inflation.
China is a big exporter of finished products and an importer of raw materials. Rising raw materials are not good for China and will cost China a lot of money. Let's give a few examples:
Copper rose from 50,000 RMB per ton to 70,000 RMB per ton. Last year, China imported 6.6 million tons of copper, which cost 654.38+030 billion RMB.
Iron ore rose from 600 yuan to 1.200 yuan per ton. Last year, China imported 1 100 million tons of iron ore, which cost 600 billion more.
Soybean rose from 3,200 yuan per ton to 200 yuan. Last year, China imported 654.38 billion tons of soybeans, which cost 20 billion yuan more.
Crude oil rose from $40 to $65 a barrel. Last year, China imported 4 billion barrels of crude oil, which cost 654.38 billion US dollars, equivalent to 650 billion yuan.
Only counting the above four items, the skyrocketing raw materials will cost China 1.4 trillion RMB.
It can be seen that the rise of raw materials will increase the cost of producing countries. If the price of export commodities cannot be raised at the same time, the profits of producing countries will inevitably drop sharply, and even huge losses will occur.