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This standard specifies the requirements of participants in spot electronic trading of bulk commodities and the business process of electronic trading. This standard is applicable to the electronic trading of bulk commodities in the spot field, especially in the spot wholesale market, and is not applicable to futures trading. According to the latest report of commodity supply and demand index (BCI) of commodity data provider in February/October, 55 kinds of commodities tracked by BCI 100 have increased, among which energy is the top gainer, with the highest increase of 2. 14%. This reflects the far-reaching impact of international oil prices on China, but the price of coal, which consumes more than 70% of energy, continues to fall, indicating that the virtual heat in the commodity market is still there, and it will take time for the downstream to recover.

Among the 100 commodities tracked by the business community, 55 commodities rose in February, and the average increase of 100 commodities was 0.35%. Energy and nonferrous metals became two bright spots in February, with the highest average increase of energy (2. 14%) and the lowest average increase of nonferrous metals (-1.87%). The prices of oil, agricultural products and precious metals are pushing up each other in the global chain reaction, which makes people worry that high-priced commodities will trigger long-term inflation.

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Although the situation of insufficient investment in metal and oil exploration has been significantly improved over the years, the oil and mineral resources that are convenient for exploitation are gradually decreasing.

Rising food prices and people's living standards in developing countries lead to rising labor costs, which in turn increases the production costs of raw materials. In addition, investors have invested in commodities such as gold, which has led to a continuous rise in prices. Investing in gold is a popular way to avoid the risks of inflation and dollar weakness.

Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said that last month, oil prices rose to nearly $ 100 per barrel, gold prices exceeded $800 per ounce, and wheat prices rose to about $100 per bushel. After that, although it declined slightly, people were extremely worried that rising commodity prices would aggravate inflation.

Among the main commodities, except for some industrial metals such as nickel and aluminum, the prices of other metals have all increased. In the fourth quarter of 2007, due to the decline of the housing market, copper prices fell by 17%, but some people think that this is only temporary. In 2007, copper prices rose by 6%.

Although the economic growth in the United States has slowed down, as some economists have said, the industrialization and uncontrollable high production costs in other countries and regions in the world have "permanently raised" the price bottom line of many commodities.

Norris estimates that the cost of mining, smelting and producing gold per ounce has risen to $400 to $500, accounting for almost half of the gold price ($834.90 per ounce). MichaelZenker of Barclays pointed out that the cost of some natural gas exploitation projects in North America has risen to $6 to $7 per million British thermal units, which is almost the same as the selling price in the US market, which has seriously dampened the enthusiasm of enterprises to exploit natural gas.

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the high prices of energy and raw materials led to the stagnation of the world economy, which in turn led to a sharp drop in the prices of many commodities. No one wants such a tragedy to happen again.

Major oil suppliers such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are acting cautiously, trying to prevent oil prices from rising to a level that will trigger economic turmoil and drastic changes in consumption patterns.

Energy analysts at LehmanBrothersHoldings pointed out in their outlook report in 2008 that oil prices are far from this level. They pointed out that the average price of 1980 Saudi light crude oil was $36.83 per barrel, which was $92.40 after inflation adjustment. The highest oil price in that year was 102.50 USD after inflation adjustment.

The average price of Saudi light crude oil is less than 70 dollars per barrel, and the oil price once rose to the highest of 90. 12 dollars. Lehman Brothers reported that although the inflation-adjusted highest oil price in 2007 was only 1980 lower than the historical high level 12, the annual average price was more than $25 lower than the average level of 1980, and there was still a certain gap.

The report also pointed out that a weaker dollar means a slight increase in oil prices denominated in other currencies, while global oil consumption is decreasing. The $65,438+0,000 in 1980 needs to consume 0.9 barrels of crude oil, less than two thirds. From June 5438 to February 2007, although the spot price of oil declined, the price of crude oil futures contract delivered in the New York Mercantile Exchange within five years remained at the highest level in history. The price of crude oil futures contract delivered within five years reflects the expectation of price and the inconvenience of storing crude oil for forward delivery.

In 2007, the price of the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures rose by 57%, reflecting the increasing pessimism of investors about the future oil supply, the tense political situation in oil-producing countries and the investors' turning to crude oil futures because of the uncertainty of the US economy.

PhilipVerleger, an independent energy economist, said that there was another factor that caused the price of crude oil in the New York Mercantile Exchange to rise to nearly $ 100 per barrel. He said that the US Department of Energy decided to significantly reduce the supply of light and low-sulfur crude oil to expand the scale of US strategic oil reserves, which also stimulated the price of crude oil to rise to $99.29 per barrel on June165438+1October 2 1 day. In addition, the turmoil triggered by the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto last week is another factor pushing crude oil prices close to the end of the year 100 mark.

Verleger believes that if the Ministry of Energy implements the plan to increase the reserves of light and low-sulfur crude oil, the price of crude oil will soon break through the $0/00 mark per barrel.

Many traders and economists predict that after the sharp increase in agricultural prices in 2007, the increase in agricultural prices in 2008 will bring more shocks to people. They predict that the global population's demand for fuel crops and food is increasing, which will intensify the competition for farmland. In 2007, the low global crop reserves and the reduction in production caused by climate factors stimulated the increase in crop prices. The price of wheat rose to $8.85 per bushel on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, an increase of 77%, while the price of soybean rose by 75%. The closing price of rice hit another record high.

Due to the rapid expansion of corn ethanol production scale, the price of corn increased by 865,438+0% in 2006 and nearly 65,438+07% in 2007. DanRaab, managing director of AIGFinancialProductsCorp, a subsidiary of AmericanInternationalGroup, is in charge of Dow Jones -AIG commodity index and other commodity index products. He said that in 200 1 year, the corn planting area used to produce ethanol in the United States accounted for 5% of the total corn planting area, which has reached 25% and is expected to continue to increase.

For commodities, an asset that does not fluctuate with the return on investment in the stock market and bond market, investors' interest in participating shows no signs of fading. Rab said that even though the prices of some commodities rose by 50% to 100%, the application of agricultural products in non-traditional fields increased significantly. He pointed out that the commodity price index comprehensively considered the price of a basket of commodities, and the market investment in agricultural futures was about 46 billion US dollars, higher than 3 1 billion US dollars in 2006. On the one hand, the increase in investment is caused by the rise in commodity prices, and there are also 6 billion dollars of new investment.

A survey of customers conducted by Barclays Capital at the commodity investment conference held at the end of the year shows that 45% investors think that agricultural products will have the highest return rate among all commodities, while only 65,438+08% and 65,438+09% investors think that energy and precious metals will become commodities with higher return on investment. Due to the imminent economic recession in the United States, the forecast of industrial metals is mixed. The wave of mergers and acquisitions of major mining and metal enterprises shows that with the continuous growth of enterprises, the industry will be further integrated.

BHPBillitonLtd announced plans to acquire RioTintoPlc. It said that this will help improve the supply efficiency of iron ore, copper, coal and other metals for the company. However, after cash acquisition, major companies may reduce their investment in mining projects, which will lead to further price increases. The rebound of international commodity prices is weak. The international price index of crude oil, nonferrous metals, steel and agricultural products (00006 1) rebounded strongly. Among them, some non-ferrous metals rebounded by more than 20% as scheduled, and the prices of agricultural products rebounded by 3.8-7%. However, the international coal and international shipping indexes continued to fall, and the Baltic dry bulk index fell by more than 22%.

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Some international commodity prices rebounded, on the one hand, it was the need of technical rebound; On the other hand, it is also related to the coordination and consistency of international aid policies. At the same time, investors' pessimism about the global economy can be released or alleviated to some extent with the sharp storm-like decline of international commodity prices in the previous period. With the gradual clarification of investors' pessimistic expectations, the future fluctuation trend of international commodity prices is expected to remain relatively stable to a certain extent, which will help investors re-evaluate the value of commodities and make commodity prices better reflect the fundamentals of supply and demand and the intrinsic value of commodities themselves. However, the short-term rebound of commodity prices has not changed the pattern of international commodity prices in a weak market, because the global economic fundamentals are still facing increasing recession risks, especially in the euro zone.

Grasp the "winter" when the industry is facing the "turning point" of stable demand and prosperity. From the industry point of view, with the increase of the risk of economic recession and the possibility of further increase in the breadth and depth of recession, with the general sharp decline of international commodities, the profits of the industry will be redistributed between upstream and downstream industries. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industries, some upstream industries, especially the mining and washing industries of bulk commodities, will face the dual operating pressures of downward demand and price, and the pricing power of the middle and lower reaches will be gradually enhanced, which will lead to the transfer of industry profits to the middle and lower reaches. From the perspective of supply and demand, whether the downstream demand of the industry is stable will become the most critical factor to determine whether the industry can survive this "severe winter". Judging from the nature of economic demand itself, only by choosing the industry of consumer goods can we ensure the stability and sustainability of demand under the economic background of economic recession.

In addition, from the perspective of the internal structure of the industry, with the reduction of demand and the decline of prices, the contradiction between supply and demand is gradually prominent, especially in the case of serious overcapacity, the reshuffle in the industry will be inevitable. Some companies with weak capital strength will close down or face the possibility of being merged by large companies. From this point of view, companies with strong capital strength are expected to grow into larger companies in the future, and the intrinsic value of the company is expected to be greatly improved in the foreseeable future, thus driving the improvement of investment value. Reflected in asset allocation, we need to pay attention to industries with relatively stable demand, especially consumer goods industries, such as petrochemical, electric power, food, commerce and medicine. From the perspective of value investment, we can pay attention to the fact that the energy market of companies with strong financial strength in overcapacity industries rose more and fell less in February, but the situation of weak demand, high inventory and the contradiction between supply and demand still caused its chill. Mainly manifested in the rise of oil and gas and the decline of coal. This is due to the strong rebound of international crude oil prices, and the rising cost pressure of refined oil and fuel oil is somewhat out of touch with the overall weak environment of domestic commodities. However, the coal sector is still weak. The price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal monitored by the business community has dropped 16 weeks, and the trend of coal can better reflect the weakness of the energy industry and even the whole commodity.