Reasons for the continuous decline of international oil prices
On the evening of August 3rd, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) held the 3rd1ministerial meeting with non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and decided to maintain the production increase plan, that is, slightly increase production in September this year, and increase the daily crude oil output by 654.38+10,000 barrels.
Although this increase is one of the smallest since the introduction of quotas in 1982 by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. However, the fact of continuous increase in production, coupled with the weak demand in the international market and the concern that the continuous interest rate hikes by European and American central banks, represented by the Federal Reserve, triggered the global economic recession, led to the decline in international oil prices. On that day, WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures both fell by 4% in one day. On August 4, the two oils fell by 2.34% and 2.75% respectively, and the international oil price fell sharply for two consecutive days.
Interestingly, in July, Biden personally visited Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman in order to seek more oil supplies. Therefore, the small increase in output is a blow to Biden. The day before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, WTI crude oil closed at 92. 10 USD/barrel, while Brent crude oil closed at 96.84 USD/barrel. Combined with the current price, the market has basically digested the oil supply impact brought by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Can oil prices return to the "7 yuan era"?
Domestic refined oil prices rose. Do you remember the oil price at the beginning of the year? After the last adjustment on 3 February, 654381last year, the domestic price of No.92 gasoline was around 7 yuan, and the price of No.95 gasoline was around 7.5 yuan, which meant that the overall oil price was in the "7 yuan era".
At present, the average price of No.92 gasoline is around 8.5 yuan, which is 1.6 yuan higher than that at the beginning of the year. No.95 gasoline is about 9. 1 yuan, up 1.69 yuan from the beginning of the year. In addition, diesel oil increased by 1.67 yuan. Fill a box with 50L, and spend more 80 yuan, 84.5 yuan, 83.5 yuan.
The adjustment on August 9, if it continues to fall, will not be too big. However, there are still nine opportunities for adjustment this year. Is it possible to return to the "7 yuan era" at the end of the year? The answer is unlikely. According to the forecast of Goldman Sachs Group, the international oil price will be very high in 2022 and 2023. BP also said that oil prices will remain high in the third quarter, and ExxonMobil even said that international oil will be tight in the next 3-5 years.
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Judging from the long-term market development, if there is not much fundamental change in the epidemic situation, then oil prices are likely to shift to the downward range. Of course, all this actually depends on the influence of virus mutation. From now on, no one knows what impact it will have on the world, because the mutant strain has just begun to spread.
We can only observe further. If the influence of this mutant strain is relatively limited, it is very likely that the oil price will continue to rise, but if the influence begins to increase, it is very likely that the oil price will fall.