What does this mean? There are three advantages from the overall situation of the country:
First of all, the drop in international oil prices is good for China's economy. China, as the second largest economy in the world, is highly dependent on crude oil, and its daily oil consumption is staggering, whether for industrial production, transportation operation or household consumption. According to the estimate of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, every time the oil price drops by 10%, the GDP growth rate of China will increase by about 0. 15 percentage points. Therefore, the decline in international oil prices is conducive to China's economic recovery.
Moreover, due to the global economic downturn, the international oil price plummeted, which can drive the global commodity prices down and hedge the current high domestic prices. If the international oil price falls, it will inevitably lower the import and conversion costs of crude oil in China, which will lead to the decline of refined oil prices, which will be transmitted to all sectors of consumption and greatly reduce the overall economic operation costs.
Finally, the decline in international oil prices has promoted the growth of domestic consumption. For the simplest example, the price of our No.92 gasoline used to reach 8 yuan/liter, but now the price is only over five yuan, which is 20-30% lower than that. Of course, the decline in imported oil prices will reduce the production costs of many industries and the prices of related commodities, which will help stimulate national consumption.
Of course, although the fall of international oil price can reduce the operating cost of domestic economy and consumption cost, there are still some unfavorable factors for China's energy structure reform in the short term: on the one hand, the fall of international oil price will increase the number of car trips, which will not only increase road congestion, but also the poor quality of domestic refined oil will seriously affect the environment.
On the other hand, it will have a certain negative impact on energy conservation and emission reduction and the rapid application of new energy. The most intuitive example is the industrial chain of new energy vehicles. It is precisely because of the vigorous implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction that the number of new energy vehicles has steadily increased, which has promoted the rapid development of the entire industrial chain, and the decline in oil prices is bound to increase people's interest and demand for fuel vehicles. The prospect of new energy vehicles is not optimistic.
Therefore, to sum up, the plunge in oil prices is mixed. Generally speaking, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. When the economy returns to normal, oil prices will rise slowly?