The bond market suffered a sharp decline, the yield of government bonds rose sharply, and the futures of government bonds continued to fall and closed down sharply after the opening. As of 3 pm, the transaction price of 10-year treasury bonds 1700 18. IB fell by 7.90BP to 3.9800%, the biggest drop since 1 1, and "breaking 4" is close at hand; Meanwhile, TF 1803, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures, fell by 0.34% to 95.945, while T 1803, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures, fell by 0.67% to 92.085, the lowest price since 10-year treasury bond futures went public.
What impact does the bond market adjustment have on the stock market?
We have noticed that the yield of ten-year treasury bonds has risen rapidly at present, but the short-term yield has not risen much, which makes the term spread widen, that is, the bond yield tends to be steep.
This is the performance of the recovery of growth and the rebound of inflation expectations. This is obviously different from the increase in bond market yield caused by pure liquidity tension.
In the case of tight overall liquidity, the general performance is that both long-term and short-term yields rise, and short-term yields rise rapidly, resulting in a narrowing of interest margins. In recent history, the latter almost always led to stock market adjustment.
At present, this kind of bond market adjustment, we think, is behind the performance of fund redistribution in the context of rising inflation expectations. Although it can't directly benefit the stock market in the short term, at least it can't be said to be negative. At present, the value of A-share blue chips continues to rise, and short-term fluctuations tend to increase. However, the overall valuation is still in a reasonable range and has not gone to extremes, and the interim results will still improve.
How to judge the follow-up trend of bond market?
It is a wise choice to shorten the duration when interest rates are easy to rise and difficult to fall and trend opportunities are not yet available. Whether it is allocation or trading, the final resultant force leads to a flat interest rate curve. The upside-down interest rates of 5 years and 10 years are mostly caused by the liquidity factors of long-term and short-term government bonds, and the liquidity premium is more important than the term premium under the trading mentality. Regardless of the final trend of interest rates, with the decrease of volatility, the liquidity premium will gradually decrease, and the interest rate level depressed by the liquidity premium at the long end may be adjusted. It seems that it is not an ideal choice to excessively hold crowded transactions of varieties with higher liquidity premium.
This round of adjustment is not over, and the market risks come from two aspects: on the one hand, with the smooth passage of tax payment pressure, the need for the central bank to maintain the stability of the capital market is greatly reduced, and the pressure of continuous tightening of the capital market cannot be ignored. On the other hand, economic stability is difficult to falsify in the short term, and economic downturn expectations are difficult to cash; With the international oil price hitting record highs and the Spring Festival approaching, inflation expectations continue to rise. The tightening of financial supervision is gradually approaching, and the market's expectation of tightening supervision is also rising. There is still room for further upward growth of long-term interest rates.
In the case that the bullish signal has not yet appeared and the negative factors have not changed, it is suggested to continue to be cautious and prepare for the future rate of return to continue to rise and maintain it above 4% for a long time.
We believe that the main reason for the sharp adjustment of the bond market today is the positive expectations of the market for the upcoming economic and financial data, as well as the early fulfillment of expectations such as deleveraging regulatory policies, inflation rebound, and overseas interest rate hikes. Before the uncertainty becomes certainty, the market volatility is gradually amplified, and the yield is easy to fluctuate up and down.