This is an aluminum casting die casting machine jointly developed by TSLA. America) and Italian industrial machinery giant Italia * * *. With this machine, welding 1000 times takes 2 hours, and die casting takes only 2 minutes. At the same time, it also saved 20% of the cost for Tesla's Model Y.
In June 2020, the same scene has been staged in Shanghai Lingang Factory. At this point, the four super factories of Tesla in fremont, Lingang, Austin and Berlin have all installed Ydera's die-casting equipment.
Replacing the super die casting machine is just the tip of the iceberg on Tesla's route of "reducing costs, increasing efficiency and increasing production capacity". In fact, Tesla, which claims to popularize electric vehicles through price reduction, and then form a closed loop of software and hardware self-research, needs to cross the stage that all large industrial systems have experienced-expected management and control costs, although Zhi Zhu is in control.
Therefore, Musk, who has a grand plan for Tesla's production capacity, most hopes to hold the long-term initiative, and never wants any link to hinder its production capacity expansion and bicycle cost control.
This is the process, and so is the material.
Looking back, it can be found that in the past year, Musk has made many platforms for high-nickel batteries. On Tesla Battery Day in 2020, Musk's remarks that "nickel will be used to the maximum extent and cobalt will be reduced to zero" greatly increased the value of nickel overnight and became the new gold in the eyes of analysts. Nickel concept stocks in the A-share market also strengthened with the voice.
Far away from the other side of the ocean, Musk can make the nickel index rise in one sentence, adding a new wave to the hype of Tesla concept. Then, we obviously need to answer three questions:
1, why does cobalt become a stumbling block to the popularization of Tesla?
2. Why is nickel, a transition metal element with atomic number 28, so important to Tesla's popularization route that Musk is so fascinated?
3. And most importantly, how many companies can shine the sunshine of new energy vehicles on the nickel industrial chain?
0 1 cobalt dilemma
The world knows the great god of science and technology, Musk, but I don't know that this South African guy is actually the biggest expert in the integration of scientific and technological achievements in American history. It is the collection of a series of achievements scattered in the American scientific research field, such as acousto-optic electrothermal liquid, which has created a series of products from Tesla to rockets.
Musk can walk fast and steadily on this route, and it is inseparable from the advisory group composed of experts in various fields. Professor Jeff Dagen, recognized as the originator of ternary materials, is Musk's core think tank in the field of power batteries.
From June 2065438 to June 2009, Jeff Dahn published an article, the core content of which is that cobalt-free and high nickel is a good route among the cathode materials of ternary lithium batteries.
The professor's article caused a sensation in the industry, whether it was throwing stones to ask for directions or building plank roads. In Tesla's system, the technical route to reduce the cobalt content is also quietly going on-it is said that the cobalt content of the new generation battery of Panasonic-Tesla consortium will drop below 1%.
Among the cathode materials of lithium batteries, cobalt has the functions of stabilizing layered structure, improving material cycle and rate performance, and is an indispensable precious metal in ternary batteries.
New energy vehicles are welcomed by Cobalt, pushing its price from $65,438+00 to $65,438+040 per pound. However, cobalt has in turn pitted new energy vehicle manufacturers. Especially for Tesla, which is eager to take the mass production route, the dependence on cobalt may be the biggest bottleneck factor in its expansion route.
Cobalt can jam Musk's neck, mainly from three aspects-"imbalance between supply and demand", "price fluctuation" and "bloody ore".
Cobalt ranks 27th in the periodic table of elements and is a rare metal. Cobalt is a serious shortage of minerals, whether it has only the crust content that is possible for theoretical mining or the proven reserves with real practical significance. According to the statistics of 20 19, the proven cobalt resources in the world are 25 million tons and the reserves are 6.88 million tons.
Yan, an analyst at Northeast Securities, roughly estimated that if the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world is 50 million in the future, the demand for cobalt will reach the order of 500,000 tons according to the cobalt content of 10 kg bicycles, while the current annual output of metallic cobalt in the world is less than10.5 million tons.
Less supply and more demand will naturally make the price expensive and affect Tesla's total cost strategy. The trouble is that even if the price is very high, the output of cobalt can't remain stable all the time, and there will be huge fluctuations in production capacity and price at any time.
Worldwide, countries with relatively rich cobalt ores are Australia, Russia and Canada, but all three countries attach great importance to cobalt resources and have formulated policies to restrict domestic cobalt ore exports. The only hole left in the world is Congo gold in Africa.
From the distribution of reserves, Congo (DRC) is the country with the largest cobalt resources in the world, accounting for 52%, and undertakes the vast majority of cobalt exports in the world. But this country has a fatal problem-political instability and turmoil.
Especially after cobalt became the local strategic metals, ethnic conflicts and various armed forces competed for mineral resources, which further aggravated the turmoil in this area and affected the stable supply of cobalt ore. The price and deterministic capacity of cobalt are always erratic.
Two tribes in Congo fight because of a chicken, which will make Musk on the other side of the ocean unable to sleep. This wonderful butterfly effect not only puzzles Musk, but also limits Tesla's long-term capacity planning.
The pattern of "cobalt in the world, produced in Congo" also has a difficult problem beyond commerce-"bloody ore".
Although Congo is rich in cobalt resources, its overall technical level is low and it can only be mined by hand. Cobalt itself is radioactive, and child labor is rampant in Congo, which has a very bad influence on public opinion. As a global company, Tesla obviously does not want to face moral torture because of this kind of thing.
Knowing these three factors, we can understand why Tesla is stuck in the neck by cobalt, and we can also understand why Tesla wants to "go cobalt".
Musk's cobalt-free demand is mainly based on his appeal for the popularity of electric vehicles. Musk, who is fed up with battery capacity, never wants a resource product to get stuck in the neck of the popularity of electric vehicles. Professor Jeff Dahn pushed hard to limit the reduction of cobalt production, the core of which is to change passive into active, reduce the sensitivity to the change of cobalt price, and change passive into active, which is beneficial to expected management and cost control.
02 cobalt-free high nickel route
Can the battery leave cobalt?
The answer to this question is that sometimes this place is ok, and sometimes it is not.
From the point of mass production, there are two main technical routes for power batteries, one is lithium iron phosphate battery, and the other is ternary lithium battery. The former has good safety and low cost. The latter has high energy density and strong endurance.
In the China market, Tesla also chose to cooperate with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., which has a huge market share and technical advantages in the lithium iron phosphate battery industry in China, and has been widely used in the domestic new generation Model 3.
However, the low energy density and short mileage of lithium ferrous phosphate are obstacles to the development of the route and cannot meet Musk's requirements for energy density and cruising range.
In this case, the cobalt-free high nickel route shows its special significance.
For lithium batteries, the role of "nickel" in the battery is to improve the energy density, which can be simply understood as: the higher the energy density, the higher the battery with the same volume, which will improve the endurance of electric vehicles.
In the past, the mainstream battery model was NCM523 (that is, the ratio of nickel, cobalt and manganese in the cathode material was 5:2:3). Later, the ratio of nickel was gradually increased and the amount of cobalt was reduced to 6:2:2 or 8: 1: 1.
The energy density of NCM8 1 1 power battery products can be increased by 25% compared with that of NCM523 products, and the advantage of energy density can be increased by more than 30% through further optimization of the performance of subsequent high-nickel anode products.
At the same time, due to the low cobalt content in high nickel ternary materials, the cost advantage of raw materials will become more and more prominent. According to the calculation model of Northeast Securities, the cobalt content of NCM8 1 1 cathode decreased from 12.2 1% to 6.06%, and the unit consumption of power battery decreased from 0.2kg to 0.65438+ per kWh.
However, this is not just a difference in technical path. As the master of a large industrial system, Musk needs to consider more problems and more commercial considerations.
Compared with cobalt with erratic output, high price and many moral problems, nickel has obvious advantages in reserves, output and price, and is obviously more like a reliable good comrade. However, Musk, who has suffered losses on cobalt metal, obviously does not want to leave the mud pond with his front foot and step into the crab nest with his back foot. No sooner had I untied the cobalt from my neck than I was caught by nickel.
So on this route, Musk and his think tank Professor Jeff Dagen sang with each other and played a decent cooperation.
202 1 1 6, Mathias D, CEO of axel springer, the largest digital publishing house in Europe? Pfner and Musk had an in-depth interview. In the interview, in response to the development of Tesla batteries, Musk mentioned that "in fact, nickel is our biggest bottleneck".
This is not the first time that Musk and a think tank have expressed their desire for nickel, but the truest idea may be hidden in his statement at the Q2 earnings conference in 2020. At that meeting, Musk left a message for the bosses of mining companies:
"If you mine nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will give you a long-term big contract."
03 nickel disk regeneration
Since June 2020 165438+ 10, the pro-cyclical market has been in full swing. Then, as an important variety of non-ferrous metals, can the nickel industry, which is also a cyclical industry, enjoy the sunshine of Tesla concept?
Xie Honghe, a non-ferrous analyst in Zhongtai Securities who joined the company in 2009, said at the end of 2020: Clear demand means that the entity will eventually enter the upward channel. If the direction of the industry boom is determined, the rest is that the stock price exceeds expectations. For example, nickel, lithium and cobalt, these upstream lithium battery materials, driven by new energy and deterministic demand, have far more opportunities than we see now.
If we only look at the upstream raw materials, non-ferrous metal enterprises with equity reserves and ready-made output will undoubtedly become the most direct beneficiaries. At this point, Huayou Cobalt, which has completed the hydrometallurgical production of nickel-cobalt intermediates from 60,000 tons of laterite nickel ore and the pyrometallurgical production of Indonesia's high matte nickel from 45,000 tons of laterite nickel ore, is undoubtedly the best upstream target.
However, this kind of induction is undoubtedly too simple and rude. For investors, it is obvious that no other enterprise in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain has the opportunity to enter the Tesla industrial chain.
According to the model of Haitong Securities, by 2025, the amount of nickel used for batteries in the new energy automobile industry will reach 323,000 tons, an average annual increase of 52% compared with 2020. By 2030, nickel consumption will reach 845,000 tons, an average annual increase of 36% compared with 2020.
Under the high growth rate, although Japan and South Korea occupy the monopoly position of high-nickel batteries in the international market, China accounts for more than half of the global ternary materials production capacity, and domestic ternary materials enterprises still have great room for improvement in the high-nickel market.
Among them, companies with high nickel lithium batteries and stable large customers, as well as companies with overseas supply capabilities, have the opportunity to improve their valuations.
From the upstream cathode materials, there are not many domestic enterprises that can really deliver high-nickel ternary materials in batches, and the enterprises with higher shipments are mainly Bai Rong, Ba Maw, Betray and Aotu.
Among them, Bai Rong's high nickel production accounts for about 70%, which is in the leading position of high nickel ternary industry, while Ba Maw, Betray and Aotu are in the second echelon of the industry.
In the next few years, with the growth of global demand for new energy vehicles, the mismatch between supply and demand in the cobalt industry will be difficult to change for a while, but with the careful promotion of Musk, the rise of nickel is likely to bring more opportunities.
Historically, colored varieties are upstream raw materials that cannot be avoided in all links. In every round of market, even in every year, some varieties of non-ferrous metals will run out of the market and are not always forgotten by the market. The so-called "cyclical stocks have cycles", and the future breakthrough of nickel also conforms to this big law.
And this, I am afraid, is not even thought of by Musk. (Author: Pan Bowen)