And these hot money, is constantly increasing, which led to the skyrocketing real estate, and then the government cracked down on the housing market, and then hot money entered the stock market, making the stock market skyrocket. Then the China government tried to crack down on the stock market, and then forced the hot money to flow to the material futures market and began to speculate at high prices. It is inevitable that pork and eggs will reach historical high prices, and the overall price increase will continue.
It's useless to crack down and block. The only way is to reform the exchange rate in one step and let the international hot money in China take the money and leave. Otherwise, when more and more hot money keeps pouring in, we in China can't afford the loss in the end! For ordinary people, one of the most intuitive impressions of China's overheated economy is the rising prices of daily consumer goods, and the prices of meat, cooking oil and instant noodles are all rising by more than 10%. This is a direct test of people's livelihood. In order to resist the pressure of rising prices, from hourly workers, cleaning workers, hydraulic workers, nursing workers to migrant workers, they have proposed salary increases in various ways. Even to put it mildly, China's economy is in a cycle of rising prices.
[Transferred from Iron Blood Community/
China's economic miracle of "high growth and low inflation" has seen some chaos. It is difficult to cover up the price increase since the first half of this year with CPI data. It is reported that consumer confidence has fallen sharply. 80% of Shanghai residents think the price level is on the high side. In the second quarter, the Shanghai consumer confidence index dropped from a high level to 109.3, down 3.4 points from the previous quarter.
In the process of CPI rising, the low-income class is the hardest hit.
One of the reasons is that more than 1/3 of China CPI index is food consumption price, which accounts for a large proportion in the low-income class and belongs to rigid demand. Therefore, based on the sharp rise in the prices of daily necessities, the living conditions of the low-income class will inevitably deteriorate. To this end, Premier the State Council presided over the the State Council executive meeting on 25th to study and deploy the work to promote the development of pig production and stabilize the market supply. One of the six measures is to "take appropriate measures such as raising the minimum living standard and issuing temporary subsidies to ensure that the living standards of low-income residents will not decrease".
The second reason is that the income level of urban workers in China is unbalanced. From the data point of view, the property income and wages of urban residents have been on the rise, and the increase has exceeded the price increase. Although the CPI reached the highest level of 4.4% in more than 30 months in June, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average wage of employees in urban units nationwide in the first half of the year was 10990 yuan, an increase of 18.5% over the same period in 2006. This is also reflected in the property income of various provinces, such as Guangzhou's GDP growth in the first half of the year 14%, while the per capita property income growth exceeded 1 times. It should be said that such a salary increase is not difficult to cope with rising prices.
However, at the critical moment, the problem of unfair distribution reappeared. Salary increase has a gradient effect. The wages of employees in state-owned enterprises, collective enterprises and private enterprises are decreasing in turn. Driven by the policy capital increase, the per capita wage income of urban residents increased by 10.9%, and most of the beneficiaries were civil servants and employees of state-owned enterprises. However, affected by the "bull market" wealth effect, the dividend income has increased substantially, and the per capita property income has increased by more than 1 times. The beneficiaries are even more biased. In addition to investors, they must also be investors who have a "unique vision" for stock trading and real estate speculation. Therefore, it is not too much to use an arithmetic average to calculate the property income of a family with registered population in a city when the distribution of investment income is extremely uneven.
Due to the rising prices, a new round of salary increase rebounded. Recently, Shenzhen held a job fair for top 100 brand enterprises loved by Shenzhen and Hong Kong citizens. More than 65,438+000 enterprises attended the job fair. Many enterprises said that in the face of rising prices in Shenzhen, employers also adjusted their employees' salaries by 10%-20%, otherwise they could not recruit employees, but could not keep them. Recently, the editorial department received a joint letter from a group of migrant workers in Shenzhen, saying that the salary of more than 600 yuan could not bear the pressure of rising prices, and the basic quality of life was worrying, which directly forced the living conditions of the lowest income class in China.
[Transferred from Iron Blood Community/
Objectively speaking, wages and redistribution will further affect prices, and price increases and income distribution will strengthen each other. 1985 and 1988, two serious inflation events, are related to the commitment of the government's redistribution policy. Among them, the inflation of 1985 is caused by consumption inflation, which is caused by the uncontrolled increase of wages in state-owned departments and the overall increase caused by the imbalance of local income. This scene is now staged again. On the other hand, due to the pressure of exchange rate appreciation, the prices of land, real estate and other assets have risen irresistibly, and the income from investment has aggravated the income imbalance in China. It is difficult for the economy to cool down for a while, and everyone bears the pressure of rising prices.
Under the current economic situation in China, it is difficult to break the expectation of rising prices. What the government can do is: first, make wage growth correctly reflect market efficiency and become a positive incentive mechanism, not a dividend for the privileged class; Second, the improvement of the wage level of the middle and low income class can resist the pressure of rising prices, and the social security and minimum wage system can ensure that the middle and low income class has a certain ability to resist pressure; Third, the government correctly evaluates the growth of prices and residents' income, avoids biased statistical data, faces up to potential inflation, and thus adopts practical economic policies.
Only when the income level of most people in society wins the price increase level can we ensure the stability of the social and economic foundation, which also reflects from the side that this is an economic system that allows most people to enjoy the dividend of economic development and has a public opinion base.