The first major event: performance growth
Popularity and attention: ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
Relevance to the market: ☆☆☆☆
Impact on A-shares: blue-chip stocks, growth stocks and performance waves.
Performance growth is the cornerstone of the bull market. In the first three quarters of 2007, the performance growth of listed companies often exceeded expectations. According to statistics, the net profit of the first quarterly report increased by 78. 1%, the semi-annual report increased by 69.87% and the third quarterly report increased by 66.93%. Combined with the disclosed annual performance forecast, it is a foregone conclusion that the annual performance of listed companies will soar year on year.
At present, most market analysts predict that the profit growth rate of listed companies is still expected to remain high in 2008, and the net profit growth rate of non-financial enterprises is still expected to remain at 30%-40%.
The key to tapping individual stock investment opportunities from performance growth is: first, pay attention to the performance wave of annual reports, tap outstanding stocks and high-transfer stocks; The second is to see if it is sustainable and tap the growth potential stocks.
The second major event: RMB appreciation
Popularity and attention: ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
Relevance to the market: ☆☆☆☆
Impact on A shares: real estate sector, aviation sector, resources sector, etc.
The appreciation of RMB is one of the main driving forces of this bull market. Since the beginning of this year, the appreciation of RMB has reached a new high. According to data released by the central bank, as of June 27th, 165438+, the central parity of RMB exchange rate rose by 70 basis points to 7.3872 yuan, and the 7.39 yuan mark was broken for the first time, setting a new record for the 75th time this year. So far, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated by 5.68% since this year, and by 9.78% since the exchange rate reform.
Most market analysts predict that the appreciation of RMB against USD will reach 8%- 10% in 2008. If the appreciation of RMB is not in place, the bull market will not really end. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of asset revaluation brought by RMB appreciation, especially for enterprises with overseas costs and domestic benefits.
The third event: Beijing Olympic Games
Popularity and attention: ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
Relevance to the market: ☆☆☆☆
Impact on A-shares: 85 Olympic concept stocks, consumption plate, tourism plate and Beijing plate.
Many small and medium investors are most concerned about the performance of the stock market before and after the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. There are two main points predicted by comprehensive market analysts: first, A shares are expected to hit a record high before the Olympic Games; Second, A shares may enter the adjustment period after the Olympic Games, but they will still hit a new high after the adjustment.
Analysts pointed out that the stock markets of the host countries of previous Olympic Games have one thing in common, that is, the Greek Olympic Games, which hit a record high that year, also achieved a 30% increase. Stock markets in Sydney, South Korea, Athens and other countries did enter a period of adjustment after the Olympic Games. But China is different from them. The characteristic of China is that China already knows more about the world, while the world doesn't know much about China. Through the Olympic Games, many enterprises in China will gradually evolve into truly international enterprises in this process. Moreover, the stage of economic development is the key factor to determine the general trend of the stock market. The Olympic Games is short-lived, but China's current economic growth is long-term and sustainable. After the Olympic Games, China stock market may enter a period of adjustment, but it will still hit a new high after adjustment. It is worth noting that both Japan and Taiwan Province Province of China have experienced the process of transferring investment hotspots to domestic consumer services in the bull market, so it is suggested to pay attention to the brand and consumer goods opportunities brought by the Olympic Games.
The fourth major event: stock index futures.
Popularity and attention: ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
Correlation with the market: ☆☆☆.
Impact on A-shares: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 plate, weighted blue-chip stocks, February 28th phenomenon.
It is not important when the stock index futures with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 as the underlying index will be launched, but it is important to treat them rationally. The introduction of stock index futures will expand the capital scale of the stock market, increase its liquidity and trading volume, effectively promote the market value of constituent stocks, especially large-cap blue-chip stocks, optimize the stock market structure, and promote the healthy and prosperous development of the stock market in the long run, which is generally good news for investors. However, we should also be alert to the short-term market chaos in the running-in process of stock index futures, which leads to the increase of uncertainty in the stock market and the sharp rise and fall of stock market prices. Market analysts suggest paying attention to the big blue-chip market brought by stock index futures.
The fifth major event: Growth Enterprise Market
Popularity and attention: ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆.
Correlation with the market: ☆☆☆.
Impact on A shares: 52 venture capital concept stocks, small-cap blue-chip stocks, growth stocks, technology stocks and innovative enterprises.
Shang Fulin 12 1, Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the 6th SME Financing Forum that the multi-level market conditions focusing on the Growth Enterprise Market were ripe. Market analysts pointed out that as far as China Growth Enterprise Market is concerned, on the basis of learning from similar markets in other countries, its design is constantly improving, and its establishment conditions, operation and supervision rules are basically mature. As for operational risk, due to the characteristics of high quality, good operation mechanism and good growth of listed companies on GEM, it is decided that the risk operation launched by China GEM will be less than that of A-share market. Based on the analysis of all aspects, 2008 should be the best time to launch GEM. They believe that the launch of GEM will bring opportunities to small and medium-sized blue chips.
The sixth big thing: raising interest rates.
Popularity and attention: ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
Correlation with the market: ☆☆☆.
Impact on A-shares: It has a great impact on capital-intensive industries such as real estate, building materials, banks and automobiles. If the deposit-loan spread increases after raising interest rates, it should be good for the banking industry.
According to statistics, since June 5438+00, 2004, the interest rate has been raised for the ninth time in less than three years, which is also the fifth time since this year. The insiders believe that although raising interest rates as a monetary tightening policy has a certain negative impact on the stock market, in fact, the actual impact of the cumulative increase in costs is less than psychological expectations. As long as the rate hike is not large, its impact on the overall economy and corporate profit growth will not be too great. The performance of the stock market is still mainly determined by macro-economy, profit growth of listed companies, policy changes and other factors. Market analysts predict that although it is possible to raise interest rates once this year, the space for raising interest rates as a means to curb inflation is shrinking. Under the situation that the United States keeps cutting interest rates, there is less and less room for China to raise interest rates. At the same time, curbing inflation does not mean slowing down the economy significantly. The market pays special attention to Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, who recently made a speech on preventing financial supervision from being overcorrected. Institutions generally believe that this is a reflection on raising the deposit reserve and raising interest rates some time ago. This also means that from the first quarter of next year, the central bank may not frequently use reserves and raise interest rates.
The seventh big thing: expansion
Popularity and attention: ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆.
Correlation with the market: ☆☆☆.
Impact on A shares: blue-chip market, Shanghai Composite Index, A+H shares, non-reduction.
Market expansion is not all about pressure. In the past, the domestic securities market appeared "expanding but falling", mainly due to the structural defects and imperfect system of the stock market, which only regarded the stock market as a "money-making machine". After the institutional changes such as share reform and corporate governance, orderly expansion of financing will not only affect the development of the market, but will improve the hematopoietic function of the market and bring new vitality to the market. The return of big blue chips will help A-shares improve their structure and become stronger and bigger. Expansion is not the main reason for the current A-share adjustment, but has become the cognition of investors and management.
Most market analysts predict that there is no sign of a-share expansion financing slowing down recently, and the return of big blue chips to the market next year and the thawing of restricted shares are still the main tone.
The eighth major event: the fluctuation of the surrounding stock market.
Popularity and attention: ☆☆.
Correlation with the market: ☆☆.
Impact on A-shares: A-share market popularity, A+H-share discount rate, A-share valuation right to speak.
With the further opening of the A-share market and the listing of more A+H shares, as well as the expansion of QDII and QFII teams, the internationalization of China's capital market is inevitable. The interaction and influence of the surrounding stock markets on A-shares will be greater and greater. Although the current impact mainly comes from the psychological level, it is an indisputable fact that the A-share market is facing international exams. Most market analysts predict that because the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on the global economy is still unclear, the volatility of the surrounding stock markets will continue in 2008, and investors must be psychologically prepared.
There is no doubt that the above eight events will have an impact on the stock market in 2008, but the impact on specific stocks is quite different. Finally, this column borrows Peter, an international investment guru. Lynch's words remind everyone that no one can predict the future direction of interest rates, the economy or the stock market. Investors would rather put aside these so-called big event predictions and pay attention to what is happening in the company you invest in first.
Market reaction after the introduction of stock index futures in various countries
Source: Financial Times
United States: 1982 launched. Affected by the second oil crisis, the stock market fell to a stage low. After the bottom of 1982 in July, the stock index climbed all the way and ushered in the biggest bull market in American history.
France: In June, 1988 1 1 was launched, with a steady upward trend.
Germany:199011/kloc-0 went online in October. Under the tight monetary policy, the stock market plummeted, and it rose sharply after 1996, driven by US stocks.
Japan:1988 was launched in May, just as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and tightened the currency, and the stock market fluctuated slightly.
South Korea: 65438+1launched in May, 1996, the decline of the stock index did not change, and then it fell further due to the financial crisis.