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2005-11-211:31:00 Wenhua Finance and Economics
China's official media predicted last Friday that the decline in domestic copper prices would be short-lived, and fund speculation is now dominating the price.
Chang Qing, vice president of China Futures Association, was quoted as saying that the rise of copper price was mainly attributed to the speculation of overseas funds. "Supply and demand factors have little impact on the prices of commodities such as copper, mainly because market expectations and position structure are operating at dominant prices. In particular, some international organizations are very enthusiastic about the China factor. "
Meanwhile, the official China Journal quoted analysts as saying in an article that domestic copper prices may resume their upward trend, and the focus of the market is the next move of the State Reserve Bureau.
A person from China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd. said, "Unless the state takes effective measures, such as releasing more copper stocks, domestic copper prices will continue to rise."
Just after the State Material Reserve Bureau officially announced the sale of 20,000 tons of copper 1 1 on June 9, the London Metal Exchange's March copper session hit a maximum of $4 175, and reached a new high of $4 1.85 on Thursday, driven by the purchase of funds.
A metal analyst said, "The copper market is expected to fluctuate greatly in the next few trading days, because market participants pay close attention to the actions of the State Reserve Bureau to see if it wants to play that card."
The trend of the State Reserve Bureau has become the central topic of the market. It is rumored that a trader of a State Reserve Bureau set up a copper short position, with a serious floating loss of 1.5-0.2 million tons. On June 23rd 165438, 20,000 tons of State Reserve Copper will be sold by public bidding again.
"As far as I know, this is his personal behavior, not the government's," an official of the State Reserve Bureau told the China Journal on Thursday.
This led market participants to speculate that the suppression of copper prices by the State Reserve Bureau's tender on the 23rd was part of its covering short positions.
What is the reason for exposing the outrageous rise in copper prices?
May 19, 2006 7: 10 Source: China Business News.
Since the peak price of copper rose to $3,200/ton in the late 1980s, this year's seemingly simple copper suddenly shines, and the futures market price exceeded $8,000/ton. Although there have been several daily limit boards recently, this price is far higher than expected and higher than the cost pressure that downstream enterprises can bear. Copper prices test the hearts of copper producers and the wisdom of the entire industrial chain. Regardless of whether the high copper price this time is a false tension created by fund companies under the theme of China, how to make corresponding and accurate countermeasures under correct expectations may be a matter of life and death for individuals in the real economy market.
"It's outrageous!" Yesterday, the 2006 annual meeting of International Copper Processing Association just ended in Shanghai. More than 200 representatives from copper processing enterprises all over the world agreed that the current international copper price has far exceeded its value. It is reported that five enterprises from China attended the meeting.
After the meeting, the person in charge of a well-known domestic copper tube enterprise revealed to China Business News that the normal cost of copper will not exceed 2,000 US dollars/ton, while the current copper futures price has reached more than 8,000 US dollars/ton. At the meeting, even the representative of Chile's national copper industry, the world's largest producer of copper raw materials, thought that the price of 4000 US dollars/ton was reasonable.
It is understood that the international copper price at the end of last year was less than $5,000/ton. After the Spring Festival this year, the price of copper has soared, and now it has reached $8,300/ton. Although the copper price has dropped in the past two days, after the correction, some people think that the copper price may still hit a high of $9,000 per ton or even 10000.
"This is the result of capital speculation, and they have seized market opportunities that are in short supply." According to the above analysis, in fact, the global demand gap of copper this year is only 654.38+10,000 tons, which is not a big figure compared with the annual demand of170,000 tons. The problem is that the social inventory of copper is very low. For example, the normal inventory of London Stock Exchange is 700,000 tons, and now it is only 6,543,800 tons. At present, the global stock of copper in London, new york and Shanghai futures exchanges does not exceed 6.5438+0.5 million tons, causing market tension.
Behind the sudden rise in copper prices is that production capacity has not kept up with demand in time. In the past few years, copper prices were low, and smelters did not make money or invest in expanding production.
Now that the market has come up, it is impossible to expand production immediately. It takes two or three years to develop mines and one year for smelters to put into operation.
It is because of this opportunity that the fund rushed in to speculate on copper prices. This person believes that if the fund continues to speculate, the copper price may rush to 1 10,000 yuan/ton; If the fund withdraws, the copper price will fall, and it will fall sharply.
This person believes that the future trend of international copper prices has great uncertainty. "The recent daily limit and daily limit of copper prices have never appeared in history." A few days ago, the price of copper futures in London fluctuated by $700/ton a day; On the day of Shanghai 17, the difference between the highest and lowest copper prices was actually 7000 yuan/ton.
At present, the demand for copper in China is about 4 million tons/year, and less than 700,000 tons of copper can be dug in China a year, and the smelting capacity of copper is about 2 million tons/year. Jiangxi, Yunnan and Anhui are the three major copper bases in China.