Shandong corn continues to rise, although the increase is not big, but driven by this mood, corn gradually shows signs of stopping falling and stabilizing.

This also made the market finally relieved.

However, I dare not breathe, because the trend of subsequent corn is not clear or even unpredictable.

First, judging from the current market, the price of corn in Shandong has retreated all the increase since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and it is basically getting closer to last year's price.

However, the cost of all aspects has risen this year, which has exceeded the cost of opening positions for traders, so the space for corn to fall has also become limited.

Since we can't go down, we can only wait for the rise, but on the other hand, the motivation for the rise is not strong.

Although the futures market at home and abroad has been rising and pulling up recently, after analysis, the main reason is that the northern hemisphere suffered a severe drought, many countries released the signal of grain production reduction, and some capitals took the opportunity to increase weather speculation, which made the market sentiment fluctuate again and triggered the rise of futures prices.

However, as we have said, it is the relationship between supply and demand in the domestic market that ultimately determines the trend of domestic corn.

On the supply side, imported corn declined year-on-year due to price and other reasons, but the decline was not too big, and the number of other imported alternative grains such as sorghum and broken rice increased significantly.

Coupled with the import of nearly 30 million tons of corn last year and this year's directional rice auction, the supply of corn can be said to be relatively abundant.

On the other hand, at present, the biggest demand for corn still falls in the field of feed breeding. However, due to the general view of pig prices in the second half of the year, even if there is room for growth, the rising ceiling is still obvious, which means that the demand at the breeding end has increased, but there is a high probability that there will be no sharp increase.

Therefore, under the fundamentals of oversupply, it is difficult for corn to return to the bull market.

Especially for this year's traders, this year's corn will be more difficult to make.

On the eve of the listing of the new season corn, the corn fell deeply and the trend was unpredictable. It is difficult to see the bottom of the corn clearly, which may affect the database construction in the later stage and may lead to the unclear or even suppressed trend of the new corn in the early stage of this year.

On the other hand, there are many businessmen who make corn and wheat.

The trend of corn is unpredictable, but wheat has also fallen recently.

So, is there any chance for wheat in September?

As of the middle of this month, according to the data released by the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau, grain enterprises in major producing areas have purchased 47.87 million tons of wheat, an increase of 570,000 tons year-on-year.

With the arrival of September, corn will gradually enter the harvest stage from south to north, but the price of wheat is hard to shake, which intensifies the traders' willingness to hold positions.

In addition, since wheat quit corn substitution, the demand has become relatively single.

Affected by the epidemic this year, income declined, and downstream flour consumption showed off-season characteristics. The opening of the school and the Mid-Autumn Festival failed to splash in the market, and the willingness of enterprises to buy was not strong, so it was naturally difficult to adjust the price.

In fact, 1 is not depressed in the peak season of downstream consumption of wheat, and it is not just this year.

In recent years, with the change of people's diet structure, the consumption of staple food has gradually decreased, the demand for meat, eggs and milk has gradually increased, and the demand trend of wheat market in off-season has become more and more gentle.

Coupled with the decline in income, it is even more difficult to stimulate consumption.

Therefore, the trend of corn in September is still unclear, and the wheat market is also worrying, which will maintain a weak and volatile trend with high probability.