The first law of support level pressure: market reversal must occur near support level or pressure level. In other words, the reversal of the short market must occur near the support level, and the reversal of the long market must occur near the pressure level.
This is similar to "time is like water in a sponge, as long as you are willing to squeeze it." In most cases, you can find the corresponding support level or pressure level at the position where the market reversal occurs-there is no moving average before and after, no fluctuation zone of the moving average, no Jiang Enbi in the fluctuation zone, and no golden section of Jiang Enbi ... "There is always one for you".
Well, that's not serious. The first law is actually a statistical law, which is a posterior probability obtained by counting the graphs that have been drawn. Just because there are too many support positions to choose from, the probability of "market reversal occurs near support position or pressure position" is 100%, that is, the proposition that "market reversal must occur near support position or pressure position" holds, that is, the first law of support position pressure holds.
The second law of support pressure: support or pressure may lead to market reversal. In other words, the support level may turn the short market into a long market, and the pressure level may turn the long market into a short market.
The first law of support pressure is equivalent to the true proposition that "if the market reverses, then the price is near the support level or pressure level". Let "market reversal" be P, and "the price is near the support level or the pressure level" be Q. Since "if P, then Q" is established, is "if Q, then P" established? Not necessarily-"If Q, then P" is the inverse proposition of "If P, then Q", and the authenticity of the inverse proposition and the original proposition can be the same or different! Since it is not necessarily true, we can only say that "if Q, then P" may be true, that is, "if Q, then P" may be true, that is, it supports the second law of pressure.
This is a bit imprecise, so it is more rigorous: it is known that P means "market reversal", Q means "the price is near the support level or pressure level", the original proposition is "if P, then Q", the inverse proposition is "if Q, then P", and the original proposition is true, so the truth of the inverse proposition is found.
There are two methods, one is to directly verify the inverse proposition. The inverse proposition is "if the price is near the support level or pressure level, then the market will reverse", so we can prove the inverse proposition as long as we find an example where the price is near the support level or pressure level and the market does not reverse. An example is easy to find, that is, the reversal of the trend-the direct manifestation of the trend reversal is that the support level or pressure level that restricts the continuation of the trend has failed, that is, it has been broken or broken. Give another chestnut, don't elaborate, just go to the picture.
The second is to verify the negative proposition of the original proposition-the negative proposition and the inverse proposition of the original proposition are mutually negative and have the same authenticity. The negative proposition of the original proposition is "If the market does not reverse, then the price is not near the support level or pressure level". As above, we can find an example to prove the negative proposition. Please look at the picture below.
From the above figure, we can know whether the proposition is false, so we can know that the inverse proposition is false. Please note that the inverse proposition "If the price is near the support level or the pressure level, then the market will reverse" is false, which does not mean that "If the price is near the support level or the pressure level, then the market will not reverse" is true! These are two unrelated propositions! Moreover, according to the first law of support level pressure, "if the price is near the support level or near the pressure level, then the market will not reverse" must be false!
Consider this question: is it true if the price is near the support level or the pressure level that makes the market reverse? Of course it is. Don't ride a donkey to find a donkey, you can't find it!
Now considering the false proposition "If the price is near the support level or pressure level, the market will reverse" and the true proposition "If the price is near the support level or pressure level, the market will reverse", it can be inferred that among all the support levels or pressure levels, some support levels or pressure levels will not reverse the market. And some near the support level or near the pressure level will make the market reverse-this is equivalent to "if the price is near the support level or near the pressure level, then the market may reverse", that is, the second law of support level pressure: support level or pressure level may lead to market reversal.
In fact, it can also be considered from the perspective of adequacy. If p is q, then p is a sufficient condition of q, that is, if there is p, there must be q; Q is a necessary condition for P, that is, if there is Q, there is no need for P. Replacing P and Q means "the price is near the support level or near the pressure level" and there is not necessarily a "market reversal". Combined with the first law of support pressure, it can be inferred that when the price is near the support level or near the pressure level, the market may or may not reverse, so the second law of support pressure "support level or pressure level may lead to market reversal" is established.
The second law of abutment pressure can lead to three theorems, namely, the first theorem of abutment pressure (hereinafter referred to as the first theorem, the same below), the second theorem and the third theorem-these three theorems are correct in forgetting to talk about their own experience. Please correct me if anyone proves it.
The first theorem: the support level and pressure level of this level will only affect the market of the parent level if they coincide with those of the parent level. In other words, in fact, it can be considered that the support level and pressure level of this level have no influence on the market of the parent level.
The second theorem: the support level at this level may cause a rebound or even a bull market at this level, and the pressure level at this level may cause a callback or even a short market.
The third theorem: the support level of this level is likely to cause the rebound of this sub-level, which is likely to trigger a bull market, even the bull market trend of this sub-level; The pressure level at this level is likely to cause a callback at the sub-level, which may lead to a wave of short selling at the sub-level, or even a short-selling trend at the sub-level.
Explain how to classify: each periodic chart is enlarged or reduced by 3-5 times, such as 1 minute level, 3-minute level, 15-minute level, 1 hour level, 4-hour level or daily level and weekly level; If a level is selected as the benchmark level, it will be reduced by 3~5 times as its child level and enlarged by 3~5 times as its parent level. If the rating is 3 minutes, it is 1 minute and 15 minutes.
It is said that only according to the "support level effectively do more, invalid short; The winning rate can be maintained above 80% by effectively shorting the pressure level and ineffectively doing more. This can be divided into two steps: looking for support or pressure; Judge whether the support level or pressure level is effective.
Common support levels and pressure levels include the former high and low points (collectively referred to as the former high and low points), moving averages, gaps, upper and lower tracks in the shock zone, golden section, Jiang-En ratio, and transaction-intensive areas.
The commonly used support and pressure levels are moving averages, high and low points and gaps. Unless otherwise specified, the support level refers to the vicinity of the support level, and the pressure level refers to the vicinity of the pressure level.
The so-called near average, this is more emotional, not far from the average can also be considered near the average. As for the vicinity of the previous high point, the area above the previous high point (just feel it), the area between the previous high point and the closing of the previous high point, and the area between the highest point and the lowest point of the K line to which the previous high point belongs, all belong to the vicinity of the pressure level; Just bypass the front low and the front high.
There are three commonly used moving averages: 9-period moving averages, referred to as 9 lines; 25-period moving average, referred to as 2 lines; 165 periodic moving average, referred to as 1 line.
Generally speaking, only the EMA with obvious trend has supporting effect (EMA upward) and suppressing effect (EMA downward), while the EMA with no obvious trend should be regarded as supporting and suppressing effect by default.
Generally speaking, at the same level, the greater the statistical parameters, the stronger the support and inhibition. For example, the support and suppression of the second line (25-period moving average, 25-day moving average at the daily level) is stronger than that of the ninth line (9-period moving average, 9-day moving average at the daily level).
Generally speaking, at different levels, the higher the average level of the same statistical parameters, the stronger its support and suppression. For example, the 9-hour moving average on the 1 hour chart has stronger support and suppression than the 9-hour moving average on the 15-minute chart.
The front high point is accompanied by MACD dead fork. The vicinity of MACD dead fork here refers to the highest point of the intersection of the price from the front low before the front high point to the front low after the front high point and the time from the dead fork before the MACD dead fork to the dead fork after the MACD dead fork.
The previous low is accompanied by MACD gold fork. The vicinity of MACD gold fork here refers to the lowest point of the intersection of the price from the front low before the front high to the front low after the front high and the time from the gold fork before the MACD gold fork to the gold fork after the MACD gold fork.
Generally speaking, the higher the level of the front high point, the stronger its suppression effect; The higher the level of the front low point, the stronger its supporting function.
For the gap, as long as the gap is not completely filled, it will have a supporting compaction effect, that is, the whole gap is a supporting compaction area. However, it should be noted that only in the obvious trend, the gap has a supporting effect, that is, only the gap in the bullish trend has a supporting effect, and only the gap in the bearish trend has a suppressing effect.
How to judge whether the support level or pressure level is effective? In principle, the support level is only effective when the price falls near the support level, and the pressure level is only effective when the price rises near the pressure level. The problem is that the market has come out. What else can we do? What we want is not after-the-fact analysis, but preparation in advance! ! !
But, ah, it is not easy to prepare beforehand-in fact, we have to face such a contradiction: no one can know for sure whether a certain support level or pressure level is effective before the market comes out! What we can do is to make the probability of guessing which support level or pressure level is effective as much as possible!
Look at the trend first. Support level is more likely to be effective in a bullish trend, but less likely to be effective in a bearish trend, while pressure level is more likely to be effective in a bearish trend and less likely to be effective in a bullish trend-this is determined by the nature of the trend and does not need to be proved.
Look at the market again. This level of the market is a sub-level trend (forget to say personal definition), and the support level and pressure level that can cause the reversal of the sub-level trend are more effective.
Look at the k line again. When a bull market turns into a bear market, there is bound to be a bearish combination, and when a bear market turns into a bull market, there is bound to be a bullish combination-this is the essence of market reversal, and there is no need to prove it. Therefore, it can be inferred that the support level associated with bullish portfolio is more effective, and the pressure level associated with bearish portfolio is more effective.
Look at the level again. According to the third theorem, when the support level and pressure level of this level coincide with those of the parent, the support level and pressure level of this level are more likely to be effective.
To sum up, the support level or pressure level with the following characteristics is more likely to be effective: (1) is in an obvious trend; (2) The grading trend has been reversed; (3) There is a classic bullish combination near the support level or a classic bearish combination near the pressure level; (4) It is consistent with the support level or stress level of paternal ancestors.
As for judging that the support level or pressure level is invalid, it is relatively simple-at this level, if there is no classic bullish combination near the support level, the support level should be considered invalid; There is no classical bearish combination near the pressure level, which means that the pressure level should be regarded as invalid. Specifically, it should be divided into three steps: taking the pressure level as an example, the classic bearish combination does not appear before the pressure level breaks, and even if it does, it can immediately (3~5 K line) close above the high point of the bearish combination; After the pressure level breaks, there is no classic bearish combination and a wave of bullish market (at least three K-lines with upward center of gravity); At this time, the pressure level turns to the support level, and when the price steps back to the support level, consider doing more on dips.
The so-called breakthrough means that the K line closes above the pressure level. It should be noted that as long as the K-line of this level is not above the pressure level of this level, the pressure level may play a role-even if the sub-level or grandchild level has broken through, it cannot be considered that the pressure level of this level has been broken through. As long as the line of this level is not confiscated, the pressure level of this level may have a suppressing effect! The so-called break means that the K-line closed below the support level; Similarly, as long as this level of K-line has not closed below this level of support, then this support level may play a role.
The so-called effective breakthrough means that the K-line low point that breaks through the pressure level cannot be broken in the next 3~5 K-lines, otherwise it should be considered as a false breakthrough. It should be noted that a false breakthrough does not mean that the market is short, or it may just step back and continue to rise. In addition, it should be noted that after the effective breakthrough, a wave of short market is allowed, and this wave of short market is also allowed to fall below the K-line low point that breaks through the pressure level, but this wave of short market will definitely end above the key support level that can change the bullish trend and get out of a wave of long market!