The price of diesel oil is largely controlled by crude oil. Biodiesel, as an important intermediate conversion link, finally transmits the fluctuation of crude oil price to soybean oil. In recent years, there are obvious signs that soybean oil futures prices passively follow crude oil. Therefore, the daily closing price data of CBOT soybean oil futures contract and NYMEX crude oil futures contract have strong linkage in most cases.
American Support Policy for Biodiesel Industry
The US government's support policy for bioenergy can be traced back to the tariff policy of 65438-0980, which restricted the import of ethanol. Since 2005, the United States has successively issued a series of industrial development plans and corresponding policies and measures to accelerate the development of bioenergy industry. The root of these policies is the Renewable Energy Standard (RFS).
The Energy Tax Policy Act of 2005 authorized the US Environmental Protection Agency to fully implement RFS, requiring every gasoline and diesel producer and importer to add renewable fuel to transportation fuel, and stipulated the minimum consumption standard of renewable fuel. The purpose is to reduce America's dependence on crude oil imports, improve energy supply capacity, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality and realize energy diversification. In 2007, the US Congress passed the Energy Independence and Security Act, and RFS was further expanded and supplemented. The adjusted RFS (hereinafter referred to as RFS2) in 20 10 stipulates that the minimum annual consumption of biomass diesel should reach 800 million gallons in 20 12, and the minimum total consumption standard in 2012 should be raised to 10 billion gallons, and the total consumption standard thereafter is/kloc.
In order to realize the continuous growth of biodiesel consumption, the federal and local governments in the United States have introduced a number of subsidy policies under the guidance of RFS, including: preferential tax policies for biodiesel production, subsidies for agricultural biodiesel per production 1 gallon 1 USD; Biodiesel produced from non-agricultural raw materials, such as butter, is subsidized by 50 cents per gallon. This policy expires at the end of 20 1 1 and is suspended for one year in 20 10. In addition, the federal government requires all departments to give priority to biodiesel when purchasing fuel, and provide funding for the research and development of renewable fuels. In addition, local governments have formulated different levels of incentive measures, regulations and application plans for the research, development, production and consumption of renewable fuels.
Development status of biodiesel industry in the United States
Previously, in the context of rising crude oil prices, the above efforts of the US government have achieved remarkable results, and its domestic biodiesel industry has made great progress. According to the data released by us energy information administration (EIA), in 2005, the output of biodiesel in the United States jumped from less than 6,543,800 gallons in 2004 to 2.5 million gallons, which became the starting point for the rapid expansion of biodiesel industry. At the end of 2009, the subsidy policy expired, and the profit of biodiesel processing decreased seriously, and the output decreased by nearly 40%.
In 20 1 1 year, the United States restarted the preferential tax policy, and the output of biodiesel resumed explosive growth, with the total output reaching 860 million gallons, exceeding the minimum usage standard of RFS2 by 800 million gallons. The tax relief policy of $65,438+0 in 2065,438+03 was resumed again and expired at the end of the same year. In 20 14, the treasury department of the United States Senate repeatedly mentioned the restoration of the tax credit per gallon 1 dollar, but it failed in the end. The evolution process of biodiesel consumption and output in the United States is similar, and the consumption of biodiesel has increased rapidly in the past few years. In the international trade structure of biodiesel, the United States has changed from a net importer before 2007 to a net exporter.
The connection between biodiesel and soybean oil
The raw materials for preparing biodiesel include a variety of animal and vegetable oils, among which soybean oil plays an important role. Most biodiesel produced in the United States comes from soybean oil. The introduction of RFS2 in 2007 stimulated the enthusiasm of producing biodiesel in the United States, and the range of raw materials became wider and wider. Rapeseed oil, corn oil and various animal fats imported from Canada are more widely used in biodiesel production. The proportion of soybean oil decreased from 80% in 2007 to 49.2% in 2009, and has remained at around 50% since then. Production cost plays a decisive role in the selection of raw materials. The substitution linkage between soybean oil and other oils and fats is not only reflected in the field of edible oils and fats, but also in industrial applications.
The United States is a traditional soybean producing country in the world, with an annual output of 80-90 million tons, about half of which is used for crushing, and the annual output of soybean oil in China is between 7.7-9.5 million tons. After the implementation of RFS, the amount of soybean oil used to produce biodiesel began to rise rapidly, and the proportion of industrial consumption in total output reached a new high. In 2007/2008, the industrial consumption reached a stage high of 654.38+470,000 tons. After two years' rest, the industrial consumption of soybean oil rose again in 2065.438+00/2065.438+065.438+0, with an average annual increase of 265.538 in the past three years. Although the amount of soybean oil used to produce biodiesel is less than 30% of the total output, its impact on the total demand of soybean oil is obvious. Based on the time series data of American soybean oil industrial consumption and total soybean oil demand since 2010/201,the correlation coefficient between them is 0.465, which shows that the influence of biodiesel made from soybean oil on soybean oil demand and price cannot be underestimated.
Usually, the price fluctuation of biodiesel will have an important impact on its output, and then stimulate or inhibit the demand for its raw oil. According to the above discussion, there is an obvious correlation between the industrial consumption of soybean oil and its final total demand. The increase or decrease of biodiesel production from soybean oil leads to the change of total demand of soybean oil, which is finally reflected in the price of soybean oil and even upstream soybean. In recent years, the increase of soybean oil and soybean price fluctuation is a response to the change of diesel oil price. In order to explore the linkage effect of biodiesel and soybean oil, the price data of low sulfur diesel and soybean oil in the United States were compared, and the changing direction and frequency of them were observed. It is found that the change characteristics of the two are consistent, which proves that the prices of crude oil and soybean oil have strong linkage.
In order to better compare the changing direction and speed of soybean oil and crude oil, the ratio of crude oil and soybean oil is processed, and it can be found that the price trend of the ratio and soybean oil is basically the same, and the coincidence degree is higher than that of crude oil. Generally, when the ratio falls from a high level, the price of CBOT soybean oil is in a downward trend; When this ratio increases, the price of CBOT soybean oil tends to rise. Since 2008, there have only been three deviations between the two, the first time from September 20 10 to February 12. At that time, wheat in Russia suffered from drought. Boosted by La Nina phenomenon and its faster-than-expected development, US soybean oil rose far more than crude oil, resulting in a decline in the ratio, and soybean oil and crude oil rose together. The second time occurred from March to May, 20 13. At that time, the logistics in South America was seriously lagging behind, the export of American soybeans was strong, the anxiety about the supply of American soybeans and aged soybeans increased, and the cost pushed the US soybean oil to rise alone. The third time occurred in March-July of 20 14. At that time, soybeans in South America and North America were harvested one after another, and the global palm oil production increased, so the global oil supply was extremely abundant. Affected by this, US soybean oil futures prices fell sharply. At the same time, the price of crude oil fluctuated at a high level, and finally the ratio of crude oil to US soybean oil expanded.
The price of soybean oil and the ratio of crude oil to soybean oil have obvious synergistic characteristics. The transmission logic behind it is that diesel oil is limited by the price of upstream crude oil, and it is also a substitute for soybean oil to produce biodiesel. Under the mediation of biodiesel, the fluctuation of crude oil price is finally transmitted to soybean oil. Affected by the shale gas revolution, the current international crude oil futures price fell below $60/barrel, and the US soybean oil futures price was under great pressure, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate and fall back later.