1. Market behaviors are inclusive and digest all information. \xd\\xd\ "Market behavior is inclusive and digests everything" constitutes the basis of technical analysis. Technical analysts believe that any factor that can affect the futures price of a commodity-basic, political, psychological or any other aspect-is actually reflected in its price. From this, what we must do is to study the price changes. This sentence \xd\ is the core of technical analysis, and I also think this sentence is 1% correct. In other words, it is this sentence that makes me believe in technical analysis. We have actually included the so-called fundamentals when tracking price changes. Because in most cases, we may infer the strength of the fundamentals directly from the strength of the price trend. But there is a key word here that is everything. All information not only refers to the fundamentals, but also includes the so-called noise-participants' emotions \xd\ their cognition of the fundamentals, including the deviation of traders' cognition of the fundamentals, which is also included in the price. In fact, the price changes mostly with these deviations. Generally speaking, when the price deviates greatly from the fundamentals, it is usually at the bottom and top of the market. At this time, participants are usually too pessimistic and optimistic and deviate greatly from the fundamentals. Therefore, we have to distinguish the proportion of noise in the market when we understand and apply it. This is why the rhythm of market price changes and fundamental changes is usually inconsistent. I think it should be Soros who put forward the so-called mainstream bias. \xd\ In addition, there are sometimes forced positions in the commodity market, and there are also behaviors such as making money in the stock market. At this time, the price change is basically only related to the chips of both parties. At this time, this extreme market is basically like gambling, and it depends on the financial strength of both parties. \xd\\xd\ 2, the market operation evolves in a trend way. \ xd \ xd \ The concept of "trend" is the core of technical analysis. It can be naturally inferred from "the price evolves in a trend way" that for an established trend, the next step is often to continue to evolve in the direction of the existing trend, and the possibility of turning around and reversing is much less. This is of course the application of Newton's law of inertia. To put it another way: the current trend will continue until it turns around and reverses. Although this sentence is almost repeated in the same language, what I want to emphasize here is: unswervingly follow an established trend until there are signs of the opposite. \xd\ According to my own observation, the reliability of this concept is about 8%. In fact, it is not only the price changes that follow the trend, but also the development of many objective things in the world is formed according to the trend. Summer will not directly enter winter, and day will not suddenly turn into night. There must be a gradual change process until it reaches its peak and reverses. And the probability I just mentioned mainly refers to when we usually analyze the direction of the trend. The change of trend and price is objective, and it will not cause the ups and downs of the market itself, while our judgment of trend is subjective, so there is a probability problem, so various technical analysis methods are also pouring out. As for how to distinguish and grasp the trend, it is so-called that different people have different opinions, and many times we have to rely on a friend-luck. \xd\\xd\ 3, history will repeat itself. \ xd \ xd \ Technical analysis and market behavior are inextricably linked with human psychology. For example, price patterns are expressed by some specific price chart shapes, and these graphs show people's psychology of being optimistic or pessimistic about a certain market. In fact, these figures have been widely known and classified in the past few hundred years. Since they worked well in the past, we might as well think that they are equally effective in the future, because they are based on human psychology, and human psychology has always been "a leopard cannot change its spots." "History will repeat itself" means that the key to the future is hidden in history, or that the future is a replica of the past. History will repeat itself, but it will repeat itself in different ways! There are no two identical leaves in reality. Investors often seek the "truth" of investment in similar historical changes, but in the end they are scarred, which also shows that the market is changing endlessly. The two K-lines, Yin and Yang, can construct the ups and downs of Wall Street in the past 1 years. Just because the K-lines are similar but not similar, history repeats itself but does not repeat itself.