The delivery standard of hard winter white wheat futures contract in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is the second kind of hard winter white wheat in the national standard (GB1351-1999). Wheat is divided into nine categories according to national standards, and hard winter white wheat is one of them.
2. Futures positioning of high-quality strong gluten wheat.
The first-class products of high-quality strong gluten wheat futures can be on par with Canadian wheat (note: the consistency of internal quality of each batch of wheat in China is not as good as that of imported wheat), and the second-class products are slightly worse. The quality of American wheat is inferior to that of American wheat. The delivery standards of hard winter white wheat and high-quality strong gluten wheat are different (see the second part of this document for details), and each contract delivery standard is very important, which directly affects the number of warehouse receipts.
1, delivery standard of hard winter white wheat futures contract
Hard winter white wheat is subject to national standards, and its quality indexes are manually tested except bulk density and moisture, which is convenient to operate. After professional training, the inspectors in the delivery warehouse can master the inspection technology, so both the pre-inspection in the warehouse before warehousing and the sampling inspection in the warehouse during warehousing are qualified, and generally there will be no quality problems after palletizing.
2, high quality strong gluten wheat futures contract delivery standard
High-quality strong gluten wheat shall comply with enterprise standards (higher than GB1351-KLOC-0/999 national standards), and refer to national recommended standards (GB/T 17892- 1999) when formulating standards. More importantly, it is close to the development of spot market and the requirements of flour processing enterprises.
Special note: during the operation of the two contracts, it is found that most of the warehouse receipt varieties of strong wheat overlap with hard wheat. In terms of price, most of them are the same price at the time of acquisition, but there are two prices in the sales link, and the price difference tends to expand. The reason for this is that both are excellent varieties of wheat, that is, high-quality wheat in the spot sense. During the period from harvesting (winter wheat) in June to the end of August every year, the post-ripening period of wheat has not passed, the internal quality is still unstable, and the inspection cost is high. The purchaser cannot determine the internal quality, so it is impossible to give farmers high prices. But after the post-ripening period, the quality is stable, and those with high internal quality can fetch a good price. With the development of the futures market, those that meet the standards of strong wheat, hard wheat and hard wheat will form different grades of prices. Achieving different standards is related to seeds, field management, local soil conditions and climate. With the help of futures price signals, the local grain department will guide farmers to adjust the wheat variety structure according to local conditions. Once the quality of wheat is improved, farmers' awareness of futures prices will increase and their income will naturally increase. 1, yield, circulation and target quantity of hard winter white wheat
China's wheat production is very large, accounting for a quarter of the world's wheat production. However, because it is a big agricultural country, farmers have a large stock of rations, and the real circulation is not very large. The circulation and qualified quantity of hard winter white wheat are also limited. The following is the calculation made by the National Grain and Oil Information Center according to the output in 2003 for reference.
2. Yield, circulation and target quantity of high-quality strong gluten wheat
In recent years, while the total planting area and total output of wheat in China showed a significant downward trend, the planting area of high-quality wheat in China increased rapidly. In 2000 (namely 1999 winter wheat and spring wheat in 2000, the same below), the ratio of 1999 increased by 98%, and in 2006, 5438+0 increased by 22.6% compared with 2000. In 200 1 year, the planting area was 39 1 10,000 hectares. In 2002, the planting area reached 5.35 million hectares and the output was 210.05 million tons. It is estimated that it will reach 26.3 million tons in 2003. 1, demand for hard winter white wheat
The national output of hard winter white wheat is about 29 million tons. Among hard winter white wheat, medium gluten wheat has the largest demand, with an annual consumption of about 25 million tons.
2. Demand for high-quality strong gluten wheat
The demand for high-quality wheat has increased sharply. In 2000, the total demand of grain processing wheat was 6,543,800 tons, 800,000 tons more than that of 654.38+0,999, accounting for 654.38+0.5% of the total demand of wheat in that year. It is estimated that in 2002, there will be 3.6 million tons of high-gluten wheat for bread processing, 0/0/0.5 million tons of high-gluten wheat for jiaozi flour and instant noodles, 6 million tons of weak-gluten wheat for biscuits and cakes, and 0/65438+10,000 tons of 3 * * 2/Kloc-0, in addition to other special flour for various purposes. The weather has a great influence on the price of agricultural products. In addition to paying attention to the supply and demand report of the Ministry of Agriculture, American futures investors are most keen on the weather factor. The planting time of winter wheat in China is from early (after cold dew) to late, the growth period of wheat is 230 days, and the harvest period is from late May to early June. The growth period of winter wheat is about 8 months; Spring wheat is sown at the end of March (early April) and harvested at the end of August (early September). During this period, climate factors, growth and harvest progress will affect wheat yield, and then affect wheat price. So it can be said that the weather determines the output and the weather determines the price.
Compared with hard winter white wheat, the quality of high-quality strong gluten wheat is more affected by climate. The quality difference of high-quality strong gluten wheat in different regions and years is mainly caused by different climatic conditions, which affects the yield reaching the standard. China's wheat stocks are huge, reaching more than 654.38 billion tons at the highest. In recent years, due to the continuous reduction of wheat production, there is a gap between production and consumption, and the inventory consumption is relatively large, which has been greatly reduced.
The annual stock of high-quality strong gluten wheat in China is less. In the mid-1990s, importing countries stored relatively more wheat (including wheat and American wheat), mainly high-quality strong gluten wheat. Due to long storage time, aging and declining quality, the price of wheat imported by the State Reserve is also low and competitive. Judging from the situation in recent years, the imported wheat sold by the State Reserve every year has a great influence on the price of high-quality strong gluten wheat in China.
The ending inventory is one of the most important data to analyze the trend of futures prices. If the inventory increases at the end of the year, it means that the supply of goods exceeds demand in that year, and the futures price may fall; On the contrary, it will rise. Factors affecting demand include consumer purchasing power, consumer preference, supply and demand of substitutes, population changes, changes in commodity structure and other non-price factors. From the seasonal factors, the seasonal price fluctuation of high-quality strong gluten wheat has certain regularity. The two festivals and the end of the season are the periods of higher prices. The change of grain policy in China has a potential impact on wheat prices.
With the improvement of marketization and internationalization of wheat prices, wheat prices are mainly regulated by the market, and the influence of policies on wheat prices is getting smaller and smaller. The factors affecting the price of high-quality wheat are mainly reflected in the increase or decrease or selling of imported wheat reserves by the state. Zhengzhou wheat futures is the most traded agricultural product futures at present, and its price trend has strong regularity. Generally speaking, the long-term trend of wheat (three to five years) is determined by the macroeconomic situation and the relationship between total grain supply and demand; The medium-term trend (one to two years) is mainly affected by the annual output forecast, inventory changes and related agricultural policies and import and export policies; The short-term trend (three to five months) is greatly influenced by the seasonal fluctuation cycle.
The price of wheat shows obvious seasonal fluctuation law. Generally speaking, July is the peak season of wheat supply and the lowest price after the winter wheat is listed every year. Since September, wheat consumption has entered the peak season, and the spot price has risen steadily. Around the Spring Festival, wheat consumption reached its peak, and the price of wheat also reached its peak in the year. After the Spring Festival, prices gradually dropped. Prices will rebound slightly in April and May, and then fall back to the low-priced areas in June and July, and so on. Of course, influenced by other factors, this law will also change. For example, in recent years, wheat producing areas often hold auctions of aged grain and stored wheat in April and May, which restricts the recovery of wheat prices during this period. The first-class delivery products of high-quality strong gluten wheat varieties can be in line with international standards. With the increase of import and export volume in China, the influence of external market on high-quality and strong gluten wheat futures will gradually increase.
There are three exchanges in the United States that trade wheat futures, and their varieties are:
The delivery grades of contract objects of Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are: No.2 soft red winter wheat and No.2 hard red winter wheat; Brown northern spring wheat No.2 and its equivalent No.2 northern spring wheat. The price difference of substitutes shall be determined by the exchange. The wet gluten of CBOT soft red winter wheat and hard red winter wheat is not up to the standard of strong gluten wheat in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and substitutes can.
The delivery grade of the subject matter of Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) contract: No.2 and above northern spring wheat, with protein content 13.5% and above. 13% protein content can be delivered at a discount. The products delivered by MGE can meet the standard of strong gluten wheat in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.
Kansas Futures Exchange (KCBT) contract subject matter delivery grade: No.2 hard red winter wheat. If the delivery grade is No.2, the contract price shall prevail; If it is 1, the premium is 1.5 cents/bushel; If it is No.3, the premium is 3 cents/bushel. The wet gluten of KCBT hard red winter wheat is mostly less than 30%, which does not meet the standard of strong gluten wheat in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.
Wheat price in American futures market
The futures prices of the three American exchanges are relatively consistent. You can refer to the MGE futures price or CBOT futures price. In the futures market, the investment direction of institutional investors will have a great impact on the price quotation, and the wheat market also exists. Investors should also pay attention to the direction of institutional investors in the process of wheat futures trading. Because institutional investors often participate in a variety for a long time and pay attention to the long-term trend of the varieties they participate in, investors should pay attention to it when analyzing the price trend.