In the soybean meal market, the center of gravity of soybean meal moved down, and the price gradually fell due to internal and external factors in the market.
In the refined oil market, the expected decline in oil prices is insufficient, and this round of oil prices may be "stranded".
In the fertilizer market, the urea market has been weak recently, but with the warming of domestic weather, the bullish sentiment in the market has warmed up, and the price of fertilizer has counterattacked!
So what happened in the market? Today we will analyze it in detail!
Pig market:
In the hog market, from February 10 to February 15, the center of gravity of hog price moved up, and the average hog price kept rising, reaching 14.82 yuan/kg, which was 0.95 yuan/kg higher than the low value 13.87 yuan/kg after the Spring Festival. Farmers' slaughter profit recovered about 1 15 yuan/head, and the pressure of loss of live pigs weakened. However, the bullish sentiment in the market is still high, and the pig price is still far from the cost line!
According to institutional data, on February 17, the decline in pig prices "revived", and the price fluctuated and fell continuously. The average price of live pigs remained at 14.78 yuan/kg, and the market continued its downward trend. However, the cumulative decline in pig prices in two days was only 0.04 yuan/kg. It can be seen that this round of pig price decline support is weak, and the long and short game is more obvious!
According to institutional analysis, the current market is divided into bullish and bearish emotions, and the secondary gain still disturbs the market. From the point of view of slaughterhouses, the cost of collecting pigs in slaughterhouses has greatly increased due to the shift of the center of gravity of pig prices. It is difficult for the downstream white pigs to get the goods smoothly, so it is difficult for the average ex-factory price of white pigs to rise. Therefore, the slaughterhouse has a certain loss pressure. Recently, the market has reduced the heat of the standard pig split cold storage, and the slaughterhouse is limited by the profit level, and the price reduction sentiment has rebounded!
Slaughtering enterprises' price reduction sentiment is heating up. However, it is difficult to reduce the price. On the one hand, the sentiment of slaughter at the breeding end is not high, the market price sentiment spreads, the prices of pig enterprises sell off, the circulation of pigs is less, the market supply level is low, and it is difficult for slaughterhouses to collect pigs. On the other hand, because the secondary fattening stirs up the market, some suitable new pigs flow into the secondary fattening, and the pig source from slaughterhouse to factory is diverted, making it difficult to purchase!
Therefore, due to the supply-demand game in the staged pig market, the pig price is mainly weak and stable. In the next 1~3 days, the pig price may continue to be weakly adjusted, and the price is mainly consolidation!
Soybean meal market:
In the domestic soybean meal market, the price of soybean meal has dropped frequently recently, and the price of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil plants has fallen below 4500 yuan/ton, showing a trend of further bottoming out. Judging from the market feedback, the prices of domestic mainstream oil plants including Guangdong coastal oil plants, Shandong mainstream oil plants and Jiangsu oil plants have dropped to 4430 yuan/ton!
The downward trend of domestic spot soybean meal prices still exists, and the factors supporting the decline of soybean meal market are on the one hand affected by the external market. As La Nina phenomenon is coming to an end, the yield of soybeans in South America and Brazil is just around the corner, the export scale is constantly improving, and the price of CBOT soybean meal is weakly adjusted, which also leads to the decline of domestic soybean meal price and supports the weak adjustment of spot soybean meal market!
On the other hand, due to the continuous import of domestic soybeans to Hong Kong, the scale of imported soybeans will reach 6.7 million tons in February, and the scale of imported soybeans will exceed160,000 tons in March and April. The market has a strong feeling of loose soybean meal inventory, which is superimposed. Recently, the accumulation of soybean meal in China has increased. On the demand side, due to the general weakness of the breeding market and the pressure on pig production capacity, feed enterprises are generally more enthusiastic about restocking.
Therefore, affected by the long and short market, the soybean meal market has further declined, and the market has a tendency to find the bottom again. However, due to the high cost of imported soybeans, the profit margin of oil plants is constantly squeezed, and oil plants have certain price sentiment, and the market may be dominated by weak adjustment trends!
Refined oil market:
Domestic refined oil market, at 24: 00 on February 17, this round of oil price adjustment window is coming. It is understood that due to the recent changes in the crude oil market, the domestic crude oil change rate has been rising. Since the current pricing cycle, the change rate of crude oil has gradually increased from -6.39% to-1.0 1%, and the change rate of crude oil has greatly increased.
Although the current oil price keeps falling, it is expected that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will fall by about 0.02~0.04 yuan/liter. However, according to the domestic refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the oil price is lower than 50 yuan/ton, which will maintain the performance of stranded adjustment, and the oil price will also maintain the level after the previous adjustment!
Judging from the crude oil market, the international crude oil price has remained stable and small recently. Among them, the US light crude oil futures price is sideways at $78.6, and Brent crude oil price is sideways at around $85. Therefore, this round of oil price adjustment has a high probability of being stranded. Collect the latest official news!
Fertilizer prices counterattack!
In the domestic fertilizer market, due to the recent downturn in the urea market, the prices of compound fertilizer and potash fertilizer are mainly weak! Among them, the downward trend of urea market is rooted in the recent overall downward trend of coal prices. According to official sources, domestic coal prices generally fell in early February, involving anthracite, ordinary blended coal, Shanxi blended coal, Shanxi excellent blended coal and coking coal. And the price has dropped by 2.2~7. 1%!
Due to the weakening of the coal market, the price of urea raw materials is superimposed downwards. After the Lantern Festival, enterprises started to work intensively, and the urea production capacity was greatly improved. However, due to the poor enthusiasm of compound fertilizer manufacturers and traders, the phenomenon of urea accumulation has increased and superimposed. After the Spring Festival, the temperature in the north and south is cold, agricultural production recovers slowly, the demand for agricultural materials in the downstream is weak, and the price is gradually falling!
However, with the recent weather getting thicker, the pace of agricultural production is gradually accelerating, the downstream orders of urea enterprises in the market are gradually increasing, and the phenomenon of stable prices of enterprises is heating up. At present, the price increase range of domestic mainstream urea enterprises is 10~30 yuan/ton, and the market bullish sentiment is getting stronger, and the domestic fertilizer price is gradually counterattacking, and the price has a further upward trend!
At present, in terms of spot urea, the quotations of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Anhui regions have increased by 10~30 yuan/ton, and the quotations in Shandong region are 2710 ~ 2,720 yuan/ton! The quotations of mainstream enterprises in Hunan, Guangxi and Guangdong rose by 10~20 yuan, among which the quotations of small and medium-sized urea in Guangdong were 2850~2870 yuan/ton!
Pig prices fell "resurrected", the center of gravity of soybean meal decreased, oil prices ran aground, and fertilizer prices counterattacked! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet!