Historical review shows that the price of gold is obviously negatively correlated with the dollar index in most periods, so it is considered that studying the price of gold is roughly equivalent to studying the dollar credit system, that is, the dollar index, and the strength of the American economy and currency (interest rate) relative to other economies is the key factor affecting the dollar index, that is, the key factor affecting the price of gold.
Not all inflation and risk events will affect the price of gold. In the medium and long term, the anti-inflation property of gold has not deviated from the analytical framework of "gold is essentially the benchmark of the US dollar credit system", because every round of gold price strength in history often corresponds to the weakness (or collapse) of the US dollar credit system, and at this time, the US economy is often relatively weak, showing high inflation (or the inflation center moves up).
Expanding data and different types of inflation have different effects on the price of gold:
1) Moderate inflation indicates that the US economy is improving, and gold prices are likely to weaken or sideways at this time;
2) hyperinflation (or economic bubble) indicates that the American economy is in a quagmire, and gold prices tend to strengthen at this time. In the short term, there is great uncertainty about the safe-haven property of gold: retrospective analysis shows that only the risk events that hit the American economy and credit system can have a significant impact on the price of gold, such as the oil crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis.
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