Keywords: oil trade; Trade flows; Optimization and guarantee
I. Overview of world oil trade flows
(A) the concept and mode of oil trade flow
1. The concept of oil trade flow direction
Trade direction refers to the regional distribution and structure of trade, usually expressed as the proportion of trade volume in a certain region to the total trade volume. In this sense, the oil trade flow direction is the share of oil trade volume in a certain region in the total oil trade volume, because China is a country mainly importing oil, and studying the oil trade flow direction is mainly to study the proportion of oil imports in a certain region in the total oil imports of China. In addition, trade flow includes two inseparable factors: trade direction and trade scale. When discussing the direction of oil trade, we must take into account the difference in quantity.
2. The basic model of oil trade flow
In the current situation of high oil prices, the trade flow patterns of countries around the world can be roughly divided into three types, each with its own characteristics. Strategic orientation, that is, the country chooses trading partners, regions and trade volume according to its long-term development strategy; Economic orientation, that is, for economic considerations, such as considering the cost of energy transportation or the requirements of domestic industrial economic development planning, choose trade methods; Geo-orientation, that is, when expanding trading partners, more consideration should be given to countries with similar geographical location or geographical transportation advantages as potential or realistic trading partners.
(B) the overall environment of international oil trade
Macro-environment is the starting point of research. As an important part of oil trade, the study of oil trade flow must be combined with the overall background of current international oil trade. Mainly reflected in the following points: (1) regional structural changes in the global economy boost international oil trade; (2) The oil financial market has more and more influence on spot trade; (3) The geopolitical pattern of world oil is diversified; (4) Alternative energy sources lead to the evolution of oil trade pattern.
(c) Future trends of world oil trade.
At present, the world oil trade flow has seen new differentiation and combination, and the degree of diversification has further deepened. Generally speaking, the dominant position of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been impacted to a certain extent, and the world oil trade has gradually shifted to Russia, Africa and other non-OPEC countries. A correct analysis of the flow trend of world oil trade can avoid unnecessary competition and be beneficial to the optimization of oil trade flow in China. The main manifestations are as follows: (1) The oil trade share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will be reduced, but the total share and development potential are still great; (2) Russia is the key area where oil trade will flow in the future; (3) The growth potential and obstacles of trade volume in Caspian Sea area coexist; (4) Latin American countries have broad prospects for oil trade; (5) Africa is a key region for countries to realize diversification of oil trade flows.
Second, China oil trade flow analysis
(1) Distribution and development trend of world oil reserves
1. Distribution of existing reserves
There are obvious regional differences in the distribution of world oil resources. In addition to being widely distributed on land, the proven reserves of submarine oil have increased rapidly in recent years, and now the proven reserves of submarine oil have accounted for more than 1/4 of the world's total oil reserves. Most of the world's oil resources are distributed in developing countries, and its distribution law is that the western hemisphere is more than the eastern hemisphere; Among the five continents, Oceania is the least and Asia is the most. The distribution of crude oil in the world is extremely uneven. The Middle East alone accounts for 55.58% of the recoverable reserves, and the Americas, Africa, Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union and the Asia-Pacific region account for 24.78%, 8.72%, 7.45% and 2.53% respectively.
2. Energy development trend and future oil and gas production forecast
From the perspective of the coordinated development of world economy, energy and environment in the future, starting from the resource base of energy development and the possibility of technological development, predicting the development structure of oil and gas production and other energy sources can reflect the objective law more scientifically. The proportion of oil in the energy consumption structure is gradually decreasing, while natural gas is the main alternative energy and will become the main energy in 2 1 century.
(B) China oil trade flow analysis
1. Trade sources. In recent years, although China has vigorously promoted the diversification of crude oil import sources and vigorously implemented the diversification strategy of oil trade sources, the situation of single import source has not been effectively improved. As far as countries are concerned, in 2007, China mainly imported crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Angola and Oman, and the amount of crude oil imported from each country exceeded 1 10,000, totaling 90.69 million tons, accounting for 6 1% of the total crude oil imports in that year. Among them, Saudi Arabia, Angola and Iran rank in the top three with 16%, 15% and 13% respectively.
2. Mode of trade. At present, there are four main ways to participate in international oil trade, namely, spot, futures, long-term contracts and obtaining oil shares. China's oil trade is mainly based on spot, with little participation in futures, and even fewer purchases of long contract oil and share oil: relevant data show that share oil accounts for less than 20% of imported oil, spot purchase accounts for 50%, and long contract oil only accounts for 50% (as high as 90% in Japan). China lacks adequate storage and transportation facilities. The futures market has just opened fuel oil futures, but crude oil futures have not yet started. The pricing power of international oil price lies in futures. Although China is a "strategic buyer" in the international oil market, it still has no pricing power.
3. Transportation status. Comparatively speaking, the cost of shipping oil is relatively low and pipeline transportation is relatively reliable. Although the railway transportation volume is limited, the land route has certain strategic significance to the national energy security. At present, China mainly imports oil by sea. Oil transported by pipeline mainly comes from Central Asia, while Russian oil is basically transported by railway.
4. summary. Based on the above analysis, on the whole, the share of oil trade between Africa and South America in China is gradually increasing, and the flow of oil trade is further diversified, but the import sources are still relatively concentrated, mainly in the Middle East and Africa, while the trade share of Russian Central Asia, which has a good geographical relationship with China, is relatively insufficient or even decreasing. Specifically, there are some risks in China's current oil trade: (1) transportation risks. (2) As the mainstream of trade, the Middle East has certain risks. (3) There may be a big conflict with the United States.
Three, China oil trade process optimization and safeguard measures
(A) China petroleum trade process optimization strategy
1. Diversified sources of oil trade. Geographically, China is bordered by Russian in the north, Central Asia in the west, and Southeast Asia bordering China is also rich in oil and gas resources. China has abundant oil and gas supply and strong geographical guarantee. At the same time, with the further improvement of China's transportation pipeline construction, the safety of oil transportation in the Middle East Gulf will be greatly improved, and the oil cooperation between China and the Middle East will be further strengthened.
2. Diversification of oil trade modes. There are three main ways of international oil trade, namely, oil, long-term supply contracts and spot futures trade. In order to improve the rationality of China's oil trade mode, the author thinks that efforts can be made in the following aspects: (1) In order to ensure the stability of China's acquisition of oil resources, the trade mode of imported crude oil should be mainly long-term contracts, accounting for more than 60%. (2) Diversification of trade between countries. (3) Vigorously develop oil futures trade, participate in the oil financial market, avoid oil import and price risks, and compete for oil pricing power. On the basis of learning from the multi-level nature of the international oil trade market, the diversification of trading methods and trading subjects, China can gradually improve the domestic physical commodity trading market, gradually promote the construction of the futures market, and form a multi-level and open market system and diversified trading methods focusing on spot, forward and futures.
3. Build a "spider web" strategic transportation route. As the main mode of oil transportation in China, the shipping capacity and anti-risk ability are not enough to meet the needs of national energy security. Combined with the geographical characteristics of China and the distribution of world oil reserves, China should focus on oil pipelines and vigorously build a "spider web" strategic route to ensure the safety of oil transportation routes, effectively solving the problems of China's excessive dependence on the Straits of Malacca and the serious shortage of land transportation capacity around China. Specifically, it can be divided into the following two aspects: (1) obtaining the Indian Ocean estuary; (2) Build a land transportation system in Russia, Central Asia and South Asia.
(B) China petroleum trade process optimization safeguard measures
1. Improve domestic supply capacity, appropriately control domestic demand and moderately import. Improving the domestic oil supply capacity is the most basic step to solve the future oil supply and demand gap. It is suggested that China should give priority to domestic exploration, strive to increase oil reserves and maintain the necessary oil self-sufficiency rate; China offshore joint ventures are encouraged to sell crude oil to China. In controlling domestic demand, we should appropriately control the growth rate of oil in primary energy consumption and vigorously develop alternative energy sources; Use the role of taxation to curb oil consumption. Moderate import should realize the import of oil and gas resources and meet the actual needs of the sustainable development of the national economy as much as possible.
2. Make full use of the current economic crisis and improve the initiative of oil trade. Under the economic crisis, many countries need funds to rescue the market, and China's huge foreign exchange reserves have found effective investment channels. First, it can provide economic assistance to politically friendly countries and create good international relations for oil trade; Second, foreign exchange can be used to exchange oil and gas assets with countries rich in oil and gas resources. For example, the recent Sino-Russian "loan-for-oil" transaction has laid a foundation for ensuring the country's long-term and stable oil supply, and is changing the pattern of international oil trading to a certain extent, making it develop in a direction favorable to China.
3. Harmonious development of international relations to ensure stable oil supply. The oil competition between developed countries and China will eventually be realized through oil exporting countries. China should continue to give full play to its advantages in energy diplomacy, give full play to the advantages of China's economic rise on the basis of mutual benefit, incorporate oil cooperation into all-round cooperation, actively participate in regional and international dialogues and exchanges, especially with international energy agencies and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, deepen cooperation in crude oil resources and improve its ability to obtain resources.
4. Improve the petroleum policy and legal system and promote the marketization of the petroleum industry. On the basis of legislation, Europe and the United States and other oil producing and consuming countries have formed a generally recognized oil management system through government policies, unified supervision by regulatory agencies and commercial operation of enterprises, which has realized the standardized and market-oriented operation of the energy industry and provided a good reference for China. In the aspect of market-oriented construction, the competition mechanism is introduced, and the restrictions in the upstream and downstream areas and the north and south land and sea areas are abolished, thus forming a unified, open and orderly competitive market environment and opening up a broader development space for oil enterprises.
Four. conclusion
The flow of China's oil trade is related to China's energy security and the steady and rapid development of China's national economy. In the process of research, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) Because of the particularity of oil itself, the research on oil trade flow should not be limited to the source of oil imports, but also include oil trade modes and transportation modes, and the optimization of oil trade flow must also be carried out from these aspects. (2) The study of oil trade flow must keep up with the new concept of world energy security. (3) The market position of "petroleum derivatives" has improved unprecedentedly. (4) The diversification of China's oil trade flow should be the systematic diversification of trade sources, trade modes and transportation routes, and the relevant strategy formulation should fully combine the geographical characteristics to build a trade diversification system with Russia-Caspian Sea and Southeast Asia as the mainstay.