The United States regards currency dumping and creating international turmoil as its main strategy to solve its huge domestic debt problem. It is estimated that the oil price in 2008 will still rise irrationally under the "rational" regulation of the United States. International inflation is continuously transmitted to China's economy through international trade. The recent intensive regulation and control policies can partially stabilize the impact of international oil prices on China's prices, but they cannot change the basic pattern of increasing profit concentration in real estate, finance, resources, energy and other industries. The so-called big blue-chip market may suddenly appear in summer.
Just after the New Year, the international crude oil price broke through the 100 mark, which triggered a "psychological earthquake" in international politics and economy, and strong global inflation expectations formed a chain effect. On the surface, the high oil price is the result of international political turmoil, but the core factor of the soaring oil price is the depreciation policy of the US dollar, that is, the result of defending the status of the US dollar as an international currency. In the face of twin deficits, in order to maintain the "confidence value" of the dollar, the United States can only control the indispensable oil resources in modern society, so that the oil resources controlled by the United States can play a confidence role in the intrinsic value of the dollar. Only in this way can twin deficits's dollars, including the inflated petrodollars, have the functions of payment means and reserve currency, and the United States can realize the great transfer of wealth to the world by exporting money and importing wealth, that is, through international trade and international financial markets.
Judging from the current situation, the United States has taken currency dumping and creating international turmoil as its main strategies to solve its huge domestic debt problem. It is estimated that this strategy will not change much before the new president takes office, and the American factor that the international oil price continues to rise will continue. In 2008, under the "rational" regulation of the United States, oil prices will still rise irrationally.
In this way, the price increase expectation is further strengthened. The rise of oil price not only directly affects the rise of industrial production costs, but also penetrates into the daily life of ordinary people more comprehensively and widely. Modern transportation industry has to raise freight rates to make up for losses. The increase in freight will inevitably lead to an increase in the prices of various consumer goods, which will eventually push up the price of rice, oil and salt, leading to an overall increase in CPI.
Rising oil prices will also increase the cost of grain production and increase the difficulty of price control. The cost of pesticides and fertilizers in grain production is directly related to the price of oil. If the food price can't keep up with the increase of production cost, it will still inhibit the improvement of agricultural productivity, especially under the condition of global warming, the use of pesticides and fertilizers will rise sharply. In view of this global knowledge, in the futures market, food prices continue to rise to historical highs or hit new highs. In the Chicago futures market, the international food price vane, the recent wheat futures price approached the historical high point, and the soybean futures price hit a new high in 34 years. In Paris, the price of rapeseed rose to an all-time high, rising by 1.5% to 444.75 euros per ton, and Malaysian palm oil futures reached an all-time high of 96 1 USD per ton last week. Since cereals and rapeseed are key raw materials for biofuels, the rise in oil prices has greatly pushed up the prices of agricultural products.
Under the high oil price, the demand of grain, feed and fuel for crops is mixed, which leads to the geometric growth of agricultural products demand. There is a serious food shortage in the world, but the development of biofuels is increasing due to high oil prices. Gulkan, director of the Food Outlook Project of FAO, said that the global food reserve has been decreasing for more than a decade, and the current reserve is only enough for 57 days. The Barcelona Food Resources Organization said that the food supply is deteriorating further as many farmers prepare to switch to biofuel crops that can bring high profits. The International Monetary Fund believes that if the use of biofuels continues to expand, the use of cereals as a fuel source may have a serious impact on food demand. In 20 10, the global demand for biofuels may increase from10 billion gallons/year in 2005 to 25 billion gallons/year, equivalent to an annual growth rate of 20%.
It can be seen that high oil prices will inevitably drive the world into the era of high food prices. Therefore, China will bid farewell to the golden age of low inflation and high growth. However, when the international oil price is regulated by the United States, China's macro-control policy must fully consider the factors of international game, and the role of policy regulation will be weakened. Under the condition of high oil price, China's macro-control can't realize the overall recovery of agriculture only through the policy of "emphasizing agriculture". American agriculture is laid out under the international "big chess game". Maintaining the international competitiveness of American agriculture through comprehensive and high subsidies, a strategy of raising the price of grain and oil at the same time, has forced China, which imports a lot of oil and has unstable food security, to pay high costs. The reduction of corn exports in the United States and the corresponding increase in global food and food prices will inevitably push up the expectation of interest rate hikes and intensify the international pressure of RMB appreciation.
High oil prices will also cause panic about the energy crisis, which will inevitably lead to an increase in the demand for oil reserves, thus intensifying the increase in oil demand in a short period of time. Petrodollars will be more rampant, and the path of selling dollars will be more relaxed, thus forming strong inflation expectations under the pressure of global dollar selling and rising prices.
In order to prevent excessive inflation expectations, the China government must take economic, administrative and legal measures to regulate the market. Tight monetary policy will be tightened this spring because of high oil prices, and the management of loan quota is likely to be the strictest in the past decade, which will form a greater suppression on small and medium-sized enterprises. In order to balance the impulse of currency appreciation, raising interest rates will be more cautious. Under normal circumstances, the one-year deposit interest rate of commercial banks is around 5.22%, and the highest expectation will not exceed 5.49%. The deposit margin rate will continue to increase, reaching about 16.5%. This kind of strong monetary policy will inevitably form Matthew effect, and the concentration of industry profits will increase, and profits will inevitably be concentrated in the upstream, resources and monopoly enterprises inclined by national policies, while the profit rate of downstream competitive industries will decrease day by day.
The author thinks that due to the double high prices of international oil and means of production, international inflation is continuously transmitted to China's economy through international trade. Under the multiple pressures of high-priced imports and low-priced exports, China's anti-inflation policy of constant depreciation of foreign exchange reserves and constant appreciation of its local currency is a contradictory policy regulation. The recent intensive policy of canceling import tariffs on resources, raw materials and energy and imposing export tariffs on some high-energy-consuming industries can partially stabilize the impact of international oil prices on China's prices, but it cannot change the basic pattern. The appreciation of local currency and high energy prices will inevitably lead to an increase in profit concentration in real estate, finance, resources and energy industries, that is, 20% of large state-owned enterprises will account for more than 80% of the profit contribution rate. It can be predicted that this phenomenon will continue in 2008, and the so-called big blue-chip market will suddenly appear in summer, thus providing a clear idea for the investment strategy of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in 2008 under high oil prices.