General normal business operation, if you lose money, do you still produce in large quantities? I don't think normal enterprises will do this. Look at cotton textile enterprises. If you don't make money in the off-season, you can limit production or have a holiday directly. Domestic steel enterprises' profit per ton of steel has only decreased, and steel output has also increased substantially.
Under the background of the sharp increase of steel production, the tight supply of iron ore leads to the rise of iron ore industry chain, which greatly erodes the profit space of steel. On the whole, under the strong pattern of weak steel raw materials, the marginal position of the steel industry chain weakened and profits quickly retreated. In the first four months of 2065438+2009, the total profits of key iron and steel enterprises of China Steel Association reached 23.25 billion yuan, down 22.83% year-on-year.
China ranks first in steel production in the world. There is a saying about steel production: global production depends on China, China depends on Hebei, and Hebei depends on Tangshan. Such a large output cannot be consumed by domestic real estate and infrastructure alone. Can only be exported, iron and steel enterprises need to export whether they are profitable or not, otherwise they will be pressed in the warehouse? This part of the surplus output was digested by exports.
Therefore, the rise in raw materials did not make steel enterprises lose money, while export was a sales channel, consuming excess output.
I found a very strange phenomenon. Anyone who doesn't answer questions according to their nature, as long as they are in the black China and black system, will be praised for corruption, but no one looks at the really excellent graphic analysis. It is really interesting!
First of all, we need to discuss whether the steel mills are losing money now. Iron ore prices have risen for eight months since the dam-break accident of the Tamsui River in Brazil at the beginning of the year. Take 6 1.5% Australian fine ore in Qingdao Port as an example. At present, the dry base price including tax is 960 yuan/ton. But strangely, the rise in iron ore prices has not yet spread to steel prices?
On the one hand, the Tamsui River in Brazil is an emergency, not a structural problem, and it is difficult for steel mills to change their production plans; On the other hand, July-August is the off-season of steel consumption (hot summer, low operating rate; ), which led to the current steel price did not follow the rise of iron ore. So what is certain is that the profits of steel mills are constantly being compressed.
Recently, the gross profit of rebar in Tangshan steel mills has fallen to 500 yuan/ton, but the profit is still in the middle of history. Of course, if the cost and rolling cost are removed, the profit may be around 200-300. Of course, it does not rule out the losses of some steel mills with weak cost control, and there are always good ones in the market. However, I don't think this phenomenon will last. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver 10" in steel mills, the price difference between iron ore and steel will definitely narrow, and the profits of steel mills will also increase.
We assume that steel mills are losing money now, so why export? 1, order. I didn't produce what the steel mill produced today, so I will sell it tomorrow. I have signed the bill, and so have the downstream ones. What I need must be prepared first. On the one hand, I may not be able to buy it for the time being, on the other hand, the price will definitely be higher than the normal purchase. So both sides are willing to sign a contract, so steel mills with export trade must export.
2. customers. Customer resources will not be abandoned by any steel mill. Ok, sell it to him when you make money, and not when you lose money? How to maintain customer relationship, this unstable relationship will inevitably be torn by other competitiveness and then form a stable partner, and the original one will only be eliminated. Therefore, even if you lose money, you have to export.
Finally, I hope everyone can be cheerful and not be so black-bellied. Please forgive me if I say something wrong.
On the whole, the growth rate of steel production will be greater than that of steel consumption in the future, and the crisis of steel surplus is approaching. But at present, domestic steel enterprises will not lose money. On the one hand, they have some iron ore reserves, on the other hand, there is still room for profit.
Moreover, around 20 12, domestic steel enterprises generally lose money for a long time, because most steel enterprises will have a certain national strength in it, so they can support it. If the enterprise does not operate, the loss may be more serious, so insisting on exporting can also increase the source of income, including some factors involving the national level.
Why export at a loss? Due to insufficient domestic demand, that is, supply exceeds demand. For example, China originally only needed 10 Jin of steel, but it produced 20 Jin. What about the extra 10 kg? Export is of course the best solution. As for the loss, if it is not exported, 10 kg will become inventory. If the domestic demand in the second year is only 10 kg. In theory, there is no need for production. Then the upstream of the steel industry also constitutes a large amount of inventory, which has a great impact on the whole industry. It is precisely because private ownership can't solve this problem that it causes the natural cycle of normal economic cycle. Thus, the Wall Street model was born, that is, the reverse push. But this model itself did not solve the problem, but only delayed it. But also may lead to a bigger crisis. For China, due to the reverse push, many real estate and infrastructure projects have mushroomed.
Although the price increase of 20 19 iron ore has reached 80%, it does not necessarily lead to an equal increase in the actual raw material cost of steel enterprises. In addition to the exchange rate, it depends on whether the enterprise has made a risk hedging plan for iron ore raw materials, so it is not necessarily because of the rising price of raw materials that losses will occur, but also depends on the specific operation and market conditions.
Large domestic steel enterprises operate on a huge scale, and the purchase of raw materials such as iron ore and coal is very huge. But according to the characteristics and plans of production, they don't buy and produce immediately, they need to make a long-term purchase plan. Especially for enterprises that need to import high-quality iron ore, the shipping time is not short, and the impact of price changes on costs needs to be considered. It is necessary to plan ahead and buy equivalent contracts in the financial market for risk hedging to lock in costs.
Therefore, if properly controlled and planned, the cost can be controlled. For example, if the steel enterprises planned at the beginning of the year had used the hedging strategy at that time, even if they bought it now, they could lock in the price at the beginning of the year, and the actual cost did not rise that much.
As for the export of products, it is completely a market behavior, which is related to the market demand and the sales strategy of steel enterprises. China is a big producer of steel, and steel is a universal and necessary product, which is widely used in many industries such as construction, automobiles and household appliances. Layout overseas is what many companies are doing. They can adjust their production capacity and optimize their costs according to their operating losses. No enterprise will do business at a loss for a long time.
Generally speaking, the rise of iron ore raw materials will not cause losses to all enterprises, but product export is a market behavior, and overseas markets are important sales markets for steel enterprises. As long as it is not unsustainable, you should not give up easily.
This question is too easy to answer. At first, we heavily subsidized the dumping war. After we occupy the market, we will gradually increase its price, just like the previous US group takeout. In the past, the US group's take-out and hungry platform, a large number of subsidized users, let users have such a sense of dependence, so that users have such a habit of eating and ordering takeout. When they control 100% of the market, they will slowly pick the fruits and reap the fruits of victory. At this time, they can raise prices slowly, because the market is controlled by you and people have no choice, and so is the steel market. At first, a large number of users were subsidized, and even this business was done at a loss. After we control the global steel market, our steel enterprises in China can slowly raise prices, because then people will have no choice.
During the interim report performance period, investors still temporarily avoided steel and cement, but overall, the steel industry in China has undergone industrial adjustment and the situation is improving.
In fact, the intuitive market of the steel industry is like this:
This is the trend chart of iron ore in the past year, an unquestionable upward curve.
The picture above is from a steel house. If we extract the domestic steel price trend, we will find that the iron ore price increase factor has not actually been transmitted to the steel price, that is, the domestic steel price is falling or parallel.
Is there a price difference at home and abroad for export?
It cannot be said that the price of international steel is higher than that of domestic steel. In fact, the price difference between domestic and international steel products is constantly changing. As China is a big steel producer, accounting for more than half of its output, the pricing of steel in the international market can basically be based on our domestic pricing. But the demand of each country is linked to the specific situation of real estate construction in each country. For example, there is still some depression in Europe, while the demand in the United States is slightly stronger.
Summary: In fact, it is easy to understand why it should be exported. From the industry point of view, iron ore continues to rise, while steel prices have not increased significantly. Because the global demand growth is not so fast, and the flood in Brazil in June+10/October in 5438 caused the overall export volume of iron ore to decline. However, this situation is expected to be temporary, and it is impossible for steel mills to change their production plans and withdraw from the market because of some short-term factors. Then some steel exports with overcapacity are also understandable.
Due to the supply-side reform and the withdrawal of capacity optimization, the situation of the steel industry in June this year was actually ok. In the context of rising iron ore prices, the average profit rate is 3.5%, and the profit rate reached 7% in 2065438+2008, which shows that the actions at the policy level are effective, improving the profitability of existing iron and steel enterprises, improving product quality and reducing the invalid output of crude steel.
At this stage, I personally think that perhaps the huge output of steel will become a sharp weapon, squeezing the steel industry of other countries and gradually controlling the global steel industry chain. Of course, we need to maintain a positive profit margin and deal with anti-dumping investigations led by trade protectionism in other countries.
However, it is still impossible for investors to be optimistic about steel stocks in the middle of the year, waiting for the upside down of iron ore and steel prices to be gradually smoothed out. After all, the steel industry is a cyclical industry, which is linked to real estate. Recently, real estate loans are tightening. Of course, the reverse price pressure will also make the steel industry accelerate industrial transformation and survival of the fittest, and increase the added value of products. This road has a long way to go, but it must be taken now.
The loss is fake! It is true that profits have gone into the pockets of officials! Remember that year, Australian ores soared hundreds of times? That's giving the country's money to Australia! After betraying the country, then domestic officials took dozens of kickbacks! ! ! Executives have no good things! They can betray the country for their own interests! ! ~
There are few houses in China, so how can the iron mine mouth rise? The large demand of steel enterprises leads to high housing prices and great pollution. The United States is so rich, why are there not so many high-rise buildings in China?
The more bosses of state-owned enterprises lose, the higher their annual salary and the more kickbacks they get.