I. Forming:
The sideways consolidation market is formed by the following three situations:
1, the sideways consolidation formed by the falling market.
2. Horizontal arrangement formed by converging triangles.
3. The sideways consolidation formed by the rising market.
The formation probability of the breakthrough direction of the sideways consolidation market: sideways consolidation is often a prelude to market changes, especially after the stock price has gone through a certain decline process, it is easy to form a staged bottom. When the sideways consolidation market formed by the falling market ends, in most cases, the upward breakthrough will be chosen, with a probability of about 90%.
Because of its morphological characteristics, the sideways consolidation formed by the convergence triangle is that the rising high point keeps moving down and the falling low point keeps rising. In most cases, this pattern will continue the original trend and choose the breakthrough direction, and only a quarter of the probability will evolve into a trend opposite to the original running trend.
The sideways consolidation formed by the rising market is the most complicated consolidation market, and its final direction choice has considerable uncertainty, which must be judged according to the characteristics of volume and price and combined with technical analysis methods.
The sideways trend was born from the falling market. If this sideways consolidation trend lasts for 5 to 15 days, the upward breakthrough will often have a certain upward momentum. However, if the sideways time is too long, it will not only affect the rebound momentum, but also easily lead to the final choice of sideways finishing.
Second, the type:
Sideways not only appear at the head or bottom, but also on the way up or down. According to the sideways in different stages of stock price movement, we can divide it into four situations: sideways when rising, sideways when falling, sideways at high position and sideways at low position.
Upward consolidation: this consolidation is that the stock price rises rapidly for a period of time, then takes a break and then goes up. The corresponding rise in the early stage is often a rapid rise after weakness. Judging from the trading volume, the price increase has increased. In the consolidation stage, the volume of transactions has not shrunk. Although profit-taking has been thrown out, it is not strong enough to repel many parties. This consolidation generally appears in the form of wedge-shaped and flag-shaped finishing.
Consolidation in decline: this consolidation is that the stock price stabilizes slightly after a period of decline, rebounds slightly, and then turns around again. The corresponding early decline was hit by bad news, and consolidation was just an empty strategy for rest. The share price rebounded slightly, but it could not withstand the air attack, and the share price fell again. Judging from the volume of transactions, the price decline has increased.
High sideways: This sideways is that after the stock price rises for a period of time, the upward trend stagnates, the stock price fluctuates, the energy of many parties is exhausted, the stock price is high, and the upside space is limited. Dealers are gradually shipping at the head. Once the main force retreats, the stock price will break through in one fell swoop. This consolidation generally occurs in the form of rectangular and circular tops.
Low sideways: this sideways refers to the stock price hovering at the bottom after a period of decline. In addition, with the emergence of Lido, popularity gradually gathered, and market funds did not withdraw. As long as the stock price no longer falls, they will enter the market one after another, and the main bookmakers will continue to absorb cheap chips in the market, and the floating chips will decrease day by day, reducing the pressure on the file. Many parties are ready for this. When this happens, the plate will break upward. This consolidation will generally appear in the form of a rectangle and an arc bottom.
Third, investment strategy.
Stock market fluctuation is the biggest headache for many investors. When the stock price goes up and down, it goes up and down, and suffers such sideways shocks. The oscillating market is divided into low oscillation, middle oscillation, high oscillation, rising oscillation and falling oscillation. In view of the above five different shock modes, corresponding coping strategies are adopted respectively.
(1) In the low volatility market, investors should pay more attention to the buying signal, and the selling signal can be appropriately ignored, because once the low volatility is over, it will usher in a period of pull-up, which is already at a low level, and the possibility of falling is small;
(2) For the median oscillation market, the coping strategy at this time is to sell in time after the increase becomes larger, and buy in time when there is an upward trend, because no one can predict the rise and fall at this time;
(3) High volatility, that is, the stock price has risen to a certain height, and it may have experienced several rounds of volatility before, forming an overall upward wave line. At this time, the risk of buying is considerable, but the amplitude of stock price oscillation will be considerable because it is close to the final rising stage. It can be said that high risks and big opportunities coexist at this time. If you are not an expert in stock trading, don't go to this muddy water;
(4) When the rising market oscillates, generally speaking, such stocks have certain rising rules and can be sold when there is obvious high pressure;
(5) When the descending channel is running, in this case, if you are not a short-term expert, it is recommended not to operate. At this time, the downward trend is inevitable, and the price difference can only be found in the shock.
Fourth, the main points of operation:
Arbitrage point of weak sideways consolidation
The main goal of weak market arbitrage is to attract the attention of old-fashioned Zhuang shares and intervene when these old-fashioned Zhuang shares fall sharply. In addition, you can also choose some low-priced small-cap stocks for oversold arbitrage.
The disk language of arranging individual stocks sideways
The short-term factors that affect the sideways consolidation mainly include internal employee stock listing, shareholders' meeting, dividends, listing of new shares with the same concept, short-term news, and linkage of report release plates.
The three languages on the disk are:
1, the upper stall sells more, the short-term buying is more active, and the stock has the potential to rise in the short term.
2. The upper stall selling is large, and the short-term buying is not active. The short-term stock has attracted many main forces.
3. The next file has a large amount of buying and continues to hang continuously, and the stock is suspected of shipping.
4, the next file buying is large, and there is a big jump to pay the bill, the stock has short-term upside potential.
5. The upper and lower gears are large, and the stock fluctuates little, so the stock is suspected of shipping.
6, the tail market singles, short-term upside potential; One end of the market is pulled up, and short-term shipment is suspected.
The main reasons for the change of lateral arrangement
There are two possibilities for the breakthrough of sideways arrangement: upward and downward. Under normal circumstances, no matter which direction, you should decisively lighten your position after a high breakthrough and decisively increase your position after a low breakthrough. The possibility of a long-term decline is relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets [2]
The formation and performance characteristics of horizontal arrangement
The formation of sideways consolidation is mainly due to the fact that after the market rose for a period of time, the main funds have been Man Cang, and there is no follow-up funds, so we can't climb up any more, so we have to stop wandering. The sideways arrangement formed in this way is called strong sideways arrangement; Or the market is generally reluctant to sell after a sharp drop, and the market will fluctuate within a narrow range. In the sideways consolidation stage, investors' operational ideas will undergo some changes, mainly referring to:
1. In the previous stage, a large number of varieties were held by the main force. At this time, after reassessing the stock price potential, make adjustments (including shipping and vacating funds for the next stage).
2. At this time, the stock market will have a certain activity, and there are ultra-short-term opportunities in the market.
Pay attention to arbitrage in strong sideways consolidation
In a strong market, in order to maintain popularity, the main players will adjust their chips smoothly in a relatively hidden way, and often introduce some plate prices with large index weights, which brings opportunities for short-term arbitrage in the market. The arbitrage points are as follows:
1, the index weight is significant, and stocks with low K-line have greater opportunities.
2. Unlimited sideways shocks have a greater chance of finishing the short-term control stocks.
3. The K-line is at a low level, and the real-time trading window has a greater chance to continuously give large-cap stocks (50,000 small-cap stocks and 6,543,800 large-cap stocks), including stocks with relatively large trading volume and stocks with top orders.
4, the operation should be fast, not too high. Usually, when there is a short-term decline in the market, stocks whose K-line fluctuates at the second highest level (usually with upper and lower shadow lines) intervene, and two positive lines are ready to go out.
5. Avoid buying stocks with broken positions and short average positions.