According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 9, 2022, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.5% year-on-year, hitting a new high since June 20021year, which was the same as the previous month. The national producer price (PPI) rose by 6. 1% year-on-year, which was the same as last month. The purchase price of industrial producers increased by 8.5% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.
Will pork prices continue to rise in the future, and will there be inflationary pressure?
Pork prices are rising
Dong, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the increase in CPI was mainly due to the low base last year. Affected by factors such as increased supply, improved logistics and reduced commodity demand, the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits and aquatic products have all declined to varying degrees.
From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 2.5%. Among them, food prices rose by 2.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.5 1 percentage point. In food, the price of fresh fruit rose by 19.0%, the price of eggs rose by 6.5%, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 3.7%, and the price of food rose by 3.2%, which became the factors driving CPI to rise year-on-year.
From the ring comparison, CPI decreased by 0.2% compared with last month, which was flat. Among them, the price of food decreased by 1.6%, up by 0.3 percentage points from last month, which affected the decrease of CPI by about 0.30 percentage points. Affected by some farmers' reluctance to sell, stable epidemic situation and increased consumer demand, pork prices continued to rise, up 2.9% from the previous month and down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month.
It is worth noting that pork prices have risen for three consecutive months. Wu Chaoming, vice president of Caixin Research Institute, believes that the start of the upward cycle of pork, the emergence of the inflection point of domestic epidemic situation and the enhancement of PPI transmission to CPI will all support the CPI center, but the epidemic disturbance is difficult to eliminate, the overall consumer demand of residents is weak, and the international grain and oil transmission range is limited, and the overall increase of CPI is moderate.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, told reporters that CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year in June, which was flat from the previous month and slightly higher than market expectations. "Since the pork price bottomed out in April, the market is expected to rise further, and the phenomenon of pressure on the breeding end has reappeared. Pig futures hit record highs. In June, pork prices rose by 2.9% month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase narrowed to 6%, which will soon be transformed into a positive contribution to food prices. "
"Structural inflationary pressures are mainly reflected in food. After the pork price entered the recovery cycle, the inhibitory effect on CPI in the past year quietly turned into a lifting effect. Since April, food prices have remained stable, mainly because of the short-term decline in the price of fresh vegetables. With the arrival of the flood season in July, the price of fresh vegetables will rise periodically after rebounding, which may have some price increase pressure on food prices. " Wen Bin said.
Zhou, a macro researcher in the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, told reporters that pork prices rose in June, but there was no basis for a sharp rise. "Domestic economic activities have accelerated recovery, pork consumption demand has picked up, and the pressure of some farmers has led to short-term fluctuations in supply and demand in the market; However, the production capacity of live pigs has returned to the perennial level, the grain has been harvested year after year, the regulatory policies have remained flexible, and the domestic market order has been actively maintained. At present, domestic demand is in the recovery stage, and pork prices do not have the basis for a sharp rise in the short term. "
Excluding energy and food, core inflation improved month-on-month, reflecting the recovery of demand side. "In June, CPI was flat. The prices of fruits, vegetables, poultry and aquatic products in food rose and fell year-on-year, and the core price remained at 1.0%. Excluding basic public utilities, domestic prices maintained moderate growth. Mainly because domestic demand is in the recovery stage, the supply of consumer goods such as food and daily necessities is sufficient, and the market is expected to be stable. " Zhou said to him.
In June, service prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, mainly driven by family services; Culture, education and entertainment increased by 0. 1% month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in tourism prices by 1.2% month-on-month. The pick-up in travel demand and holiday factors * * * pushed the air ticket price up 19.2%. "With the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the demand factor in the core CPI has pushed up the prices of some goods and services." Minsheng Bank Research Institute pointed out that the three durable consumer goods, transportation, communication tools and household appliances, showed a "three drops" month-on-month for the first time this year, and the demand was still weak. It still needs a process to reflect the improvement of residents' income expectations and consumer confidence.
PPI continued to decline year-on-year.
In June, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI continued to decline. On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose by 6. 1%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, mainly due to the high base last year, which has dropped for six consecutive months since this year. Among the major industries, coal mining and washing increased by 3 1.4% year-on-year, down by 5.8 percentage points; Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 8.2% year-on-year, down by 2.2 percentage points; The gas production and supply industry rose by 2 1.8%, down by 0.2 percentage points.
From the ring comparison, PPI increased by 0. 1% compared with last month, which was flat. Changes in international crude oil prices have driven up the prices of domestic related industries, among which the prices of oil and gas exploration industries have increased by 7.0% month-on-month. Affected by the slowdown in investment growth and other factors, the demand of steel, cement and other industries is relatively weak. The price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 3. 1%, and the price of nonmetallic mineral products industry decreased by 1.5%.
"Since June, the market has been worried about the global economic recession, and the policies of developed economies have undergone a sharp change, which has dragged down commodity prices. In June, the purchase price of raw materials in manufacturing dropped significantly, reflecting that the pressure on the input cost of raw materials in some middle and lower reaches of China has eased, but the PPI of production materials in June is still at a high level year-on-year, indicating that the input cost pressure in some middle and lower reaches of China is still not small. " Zhou said to him.
The future CPI is reasonable and stable.
Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said earlier that looking forward to the latter part of this year, the production of important livelihood commodities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables in China will be stable and sufficient, especially with the large number of fresh agricultural products listed in this season, the market supply will continue to increase, and the logistics congestion points in various places will be effectively diverted, and the cross-regional transportation capacity will be significantly enhanced, which has a solid foundation for stabilizing consumer prices. Domestic CPI will continue to operate in a reasonable range, and can achieve the expected goal of about 3% for the whole year.
At present, the "scissors difference" between PPI and CPI continues to narrow, but the middle and lower reaches of enterprises still face greater pressure. Zhou believes that from the year-on-year trend of CPI and PPI, domestic demand is picking up, but the core CPI continues to maintain "1 era" year-on-year, reflecting that domestic demand is still weak; PPI continued to slow down year-on-year, reflecting that the production cost pressure of some middle and lower reaches of industrial manufacturing industries has eased, but the overall prices of energy and industrial raw materials remain high, and the operating pressure of some enterprises is still relatively high. China still needs to be alert to imported inflationary pressure.
Wen Bin said that with the gradual recovery of overall demand in China, core inflation is expected to gradually move up from the weak range below 1% in the previous period to the historical average level of 1.2%- 1.5%.
"Overall, it is expected that CPI will rise moderately in the second half of the year, and the probability of exceeding 3% in some months (September 65438+February) is high, but the annual average level is still controlled within the policy target range (about 3%). At the same time, PPI will continue to decline due to the influence of last year's base and the weakening of global commodity prices. It is expected that inflation will not put too much pressure on monetary policy. " Wen Bin pointed out.
Caixin Research Institute predicts that CPI will increase by about 2.5% year-on-year in July. It is estimated that food prices will turn from falling to rising in July, and a new round of "pig cycle" has started. At the same time, the repair of service industry and the transmission of PPI to CPI increased, and the CPI hikes in July dropped by about 0.3 percentage points compared with June.