The formation of my country's current inflation should be said to be multi-faceted, including external factors and internal factors.
1. External factors: Many problems left over from the global economic crisis have made the current global economy temporarily unstable. After our country's accession to the WTO, our economy has also integrated into the world, and all world economic trends have also affected our country's economy (it is impossible to stay out of it).
1. The United States issued a large amount of U.S. dollars in the second half of 2010, which led to a sharp increase in global currency circulation, a sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and worsening global inflation.
2. In recent times, the war in Libya has also dragged down the world economy. Oil is the lifeblood of Libya's economy, with more than 95% of the country's export revenue coming from oil. The outbreak of war in Libya resulted in the interruption of all Libyan oil output of 1.6 million barrels per day. As an important oil-producing country in the world, the escalation of turmoil in Libya has led to another surge in international oil prices. Although Libya currently supplies less than 2% of world production, its customers are almost all European refineries, and more than 80% of its oil is exported to Europe.
The big reason for the rise in oil prices over the past two days is from Libya. And everyone knows that rising oil prices will also drive further increases in prices in many other industries.
3. Japan’s huge earthquake (the global economy was greatly affected)
2. Own factors:
It should be said that my country’s inflation rate last year was It has reached a very serious level. The main reason is that various natural disasters have caused agricultural products and other commodities that are greatly affected by the weather to be in short supply, leaving a lot of room for speculation. At the same time, the introduction of my country's policy of suppressing real estate has caused some hot money that originally invested in real estate to invest in agricultural products that have room for speculation (agricultural product futures are even more speculative). This is the main reason for the price increase last year.
Also, the 4 trillion yuan in fiscal expenditures increased by the country in the past two years also had a certain effect on inflation after being put into the entire economic market.
The above is a rough analysis of the causes. In the face of the current inflation situation, I think everyone has also seen that the continuous interest rate hikes since last year and the increase in the deposit reserve ratio are all measures adopted by the state. Interest rate means adjusting monetary policy to curb inflation.
However, through this series of measures combined with the global inflation situation, it can be concluded that my country's current inflation is still in a state of stagflation, and it is difficult to suppress it all at once. However, the previous Interest rate adjustments also play a certain role in suppressing inflation. Moreover, the current inflation bubble is very large, and the country cannot allow it to expand any longer. After all, the threat is also great.
Inflation will bring a certain amount of GDP growth. However, the 12th Five-Year Plan clearly stated after the two sessions has also shifted its focus from GDP, so the focus of national policy should be to curb inflation. Focus on moderate monetary policy to curb hot money.
On the other hand, the deep-seated problems facing my country's economic development have not been fundamentally solved. The foundation for the recovery of domestic demand is not yet solid. Private investment and endogenous growth drivers need to be strengthened to continue to expand household consumption. , the task of promoting the transformation of economic development mode and optimizing the economic structure is still arduous, and the potential risks in the fiscal and financial fields cannot be ignored, especially the need to strengthen the risk management of local government investment and financing platform loans. Therefore, in terms of fiscal policy, although we will maintain a proactive fiscal policy this year, there will still be a moderate tightening taking into account various factors.