Non-agricultural data refers to the three values ??of non-agricultural employment, employment rate and unemployment rate. As the name suggests, it is a data indicator that reflects the employment status of the non-agricultural population in the United States. These three data are released on the first Friday of each month at 21:30 Beijing time (winter saving time: November--March) and (summer time: April--October) 20:30. The data comes from the U.S. Labor Department Department of Labor Statistics.

1 Basic Concept

Release Time

Usually the U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be released on the Friday evening of the first week of each month, but there are also special circumstances, such as (Non-farm employment data in September 2013) The United States suffered its first government shutdown in the past 17 years. Therefore, many economic data, including September’s non-farm employment data, were not released on time and were postponed to October 22. Released in the evening.

Number of Employment

The number of non-agricultural employment can reflect the development and growth of the manufacturing and service industries. A decrease in the number means that companies have reduced production and the economy has entered a depression. When the social economy is fast, consumption will naturally increase, and the number of jobs in consumer and service industries will also increase. When non-farm payrolls numbers increase significantly, it signals a healthy economy, which in theory should be positive for exchange rates and could signal higher interest rates. Potentially higher interest rates prompt foreign exchange markets to push the country's currency even more. ,vice versa. Therefore, this data is an important indicator for observing the degree and status of socio-economic and financial development. Non-agricultural employment is an item in the employment report, which mainly counts changes in positions other than agricultural production.

Employment Report

The Employment Report (The Employment Report), including employment-related information, is derived from two independent surveys, namely the enterprise survey and the household survey. Among them, the enterprise survey provides information on employment in the non-agricultural sector, average hourly work and total hours index; the household survey provides information on the labor force, household employment and unemployment rate. The employment report is often hailed as the "crown jewel" among all economic indicators that the foreign exchange market can react to. It is the most sensitive monthly economic indicator in the market. Investors can usually see a lot of market-sensitive information from it, among which the foreign exchange market The market is paying particular attention to changes in monthly non-farm payrolls, which are seasonally adjusted. The U.S. non-farm payroll data is one of the economic data that the foreign exchange market focuses on every month. The release of this data may become a turning point in determining the direction of the foreign exchange market. It may also bring intense fluctuations to the foreign exchange market, causing the market to become more ambiguous about the direction of the foreign exchange market. (For more information, please follow the WeChat public account "Global Foreign Exchange Voice").

Non-agricultural data

In our daily foreign exchange transactions, we will hear non-agricultural data from a lot of foreign exchange news and reviews, and it is quite important fundamental data. Every time As long as this data is released, it will cause violent fluctuations in the stock market, futures, foreign exchange and other markets, or it will be a turning point in a trend, or a breakthrough point in the market consolidation. So what is non-agricultural data? Today we will briefly talk about it. The literal meaning is actually the non-agricultural population, or more popularly, it means those who do not work in the farmland, but are engaged in business and work in the city. In fact, the non-agricultural data we usually refer to generally refers to the three values ??of the U.S. non-agricultural employment rate, non-agricultural employment and the unemployment rate. It is released by the U.S. Department of Labor once a month, usually on the third day of each month. It is released at 8:30 or 9:30 pm Beijing time on a Friday, reflecting the trend of the US economy. Good data indicates that the economy is getting better, while poor data indicates that the economy is getting worse.

Non-farm outlook

The most watched U.S. economic data in the foreign exchange market is the employment data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the first Friday of every month. genus.

There are several main reasons why this data has such a great influence on the stock market and foreign exchange market.

First, this data is released in a timely manner. This data is the first important economic data released every month, and this data is released by the Department of Labor one week after the survey is obtained, so the market can learn the latest employment situation in the United States in a timely manner.

Second, this data points out the employment situation in the United States in detail, and the published information is very useful in predicting the economic situation of the entire country. Therefore, when the market obtains this information, it can make a rough prediction of GDP.

Third, what this data relates to is the income of the average American family. Obviously, when the national employment situation improves and income increases, it will drive various consumption links. About 70% of the growth of the U.S. economy can be said to be dominated by internal consumption. Therefore, knowing the employment data, we can predict the U.S. The overall consumption situation.

Another reason why the market pays so much attention to this employment data is because the predictions made by market analysts and economists about this data are often embarrassing, and the actual numbers often differ from market expectations. There is a big discrepancy, so the entire market will pay attention to the actual numbers in order to adjust its own forecasts for economic conditions.

This employment data is mainly composed of two independent surveys, one part is obtained from the household survey, and the other part is obtained from the enterprise survey.

Household survey, as the name suggests, refers to interviews conducted by investigators on citizens' employment status through telephone calls and emails. Corporate surveys involve companies reporting on the hiring and compensation of their employees. From the above two channels, investigators can compile employment data.

The household survey data comes from 60,000 households in the United States, and the general response rate for the survey is 95%. All surveys will be conducted near the end of the month. The results of the survey actually have important reference functions for many industries, such as the advertising industry. This is because this survey report includes the general employment situation and prospects of citizens. In addition, the employment situation of different age levels, and even the employment situation of different genders and ethnic groups can be found in the report. The unemployment rate is compiled from the data obtained from the household survey.

The other is business surveys, which are considered by the market to be more valuable data. The survey data comes from 400,000 companies and government departments, covering 500 different industries, covering more than 40 million employed people, accounting for nearly half of the entire non-agricultural employed population. The data obtained from the survey include the number of new non-agricultural positions, salary trends in different industries, employment status, weekly working hours, wages, specific information on overtime wages, etc. Therefore, this enterprise survey report can tell us in more detail every important link of the employment situation, and is of great reference value for understanding the development of the entire economy.

2 Different Camps

As the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for June 2009 is about to be released on Thursday, non-farm data economists have divided their predictions on specific data. There are two completely different groups: the optimists expect that non-farm employment will only decrease by 300,000 people in June, while the pessimists believe that the number of employment losses will exceed 400,000. According to a survey by an authoritative media, the median expectation of economists is that the number of non-farm employment in the United States will decrease by 350,000 in June, and the unemployment rate will hit 9.6%. This is consistent with the calculation model of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). The average forecast of a decrease of 344,000 people is very close. Some labor market indicators released before June 2009 were very disappointing (for details, please follow the WeChat public account "Global Foreign Exchange Voice").

Optimists

However, some employment indicators still show glimmers of hope. A report released by employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Wednesday showed that the number of planned layoffs announced by U.S. companies in June fell 33% from the previous month to 74,393, the fifth consecutive month of decline and the highest number of layoffs announced in March 2008. A new low since 53,579 people. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that the manufacturing employment index rose to 40.7 in June from 34.3 in May, indicating that the pace of contraction in the job market is slowing.

Optimists point out that the improvement of the overall economic situation will play a positive role. Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics said the job market, which entered a deep freeze following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, is starting to thaw. He expects nonfarm payroll employment to fall by 250,000 in June. He also pointed out: Although the job market remains weak, we believe that the employment data released on Thursday will be better than expected. While economists are divided on the outlook for June's nonfarm payrolls report, what they agree on is that the pace of business layoffs has slowed from the first quarter; in the three months of the first quarter of 2012, U.S. non-farm employment fell by an average of 691,000 per month, the worst quarterly job market performance since the third quarter of 1945.

3 Operate with caution

Non-agricultural data will be released soon. Operate with caution before the data. Take the foreign exchange market reaction when non-agricultural data was released in June 2010 as an example.

Importance

No economic indicator roils the stock and bond markets like the jobs report. Why is this so? First, the employment situation report is very timely, coming out just one week into the month under observation. Second, the report is rich and specific on the job market and household income, information useful for forecasting the economy. Third, let’s face it—we’re talking about the welfare of American workers. Wages and salaries derived from employment constitute the main source of income for households. The more workers earn, the more they buy and the more they move the economy forward. If there are fewer people working, spending will fall and businesses will suffer. Since household spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, you can understand why the investment community watches employment reports so closely. There's another reason jobs reports control financial markets so well: Job numbers often surprise people. If there is little other information for the month, it will be difficult for experts to predict job losses. The highlight of the employment report is, of course, the unemployment rate, which is the percentage of society's labor force that is not employed. What do we mean by social labor force? It is defined as all employed and unemployed people over the age of 16 (except those in the military, prisons, mental hospitals, and nursing homes). Economists measure monthly changes in the job market based on two different sources.

One is based on a household survey, which is conducted by the government through telephone and letter interviews with households. The other is an establishment (payroll) survey, which asks companies directly about recent personnel changes. Taken together, these two items paint a broad picture of the labor market and, more broadly, the state of the economy.

4 Exchange rate impact

Non-farm data can greatly affect the value of the dollar in currency markets. A vibrant employment report could drive interest rates higher, making the dollar more attractive to foreign investors. They can earn interest income by holding U.S. Treasury bonds. On the other hand, a bad jobs report could weaken demand for U.S. currency, as it spells trouble for U.S. stocks and puts downward pressure on interest rates. Both would make the dollar less attractive to foreigners.

5 Precious Metals

Anyone who has worked in the precious metals market knows that non-agricultural activities have a huge impact on the price trend of precious metals, especially spot silver. Prices often fluctuate sharply before and after the release of data. amplitude fluctuations. In order to allow investors to better profit from non-farm payrolls, we will next conduct an in-depth analysis of the impact of non-farm payrolls data on precious metals.

First of all, we need to understand what non-agriculture is. As the name suggests, non-agricultural employment refers to the value of non-agricultural employment. As the world's largest economic power, the non-agricultural employment we refer to is usually the value of the United States. As a non-agricultural employment population, non-agricultural employment includes the employment population in the manufacturing and service industries. It also reflects the country's current economic development level, because the manufacturing and service industries are the secondary and tertiary industries respectively, and their employment population The number directly reflects the country's consumption level. If the value becomes smaller, it means that the productivity of the country's enterprises has declined, the economy has entered a depression, people's consumption levels have declined, and the market has fallen into a highly sensitive period. On the contrary, when the value increases, it indicates that the social economy is good, enterprise productivity is high, people's consumption power is enhanced, and the market becomes highly active. But what is its impact on precious metals?

The U.S. non-agricultural data is released together with its unemployment rate data. The two data complement each other and often achieve twice the result with half the effort. The above three aspects show that the U.S. non-agricultural data is closely related to the country's consumer market and economic development. Therefore, if the value of the non-agricultural data increases, it indicates that the U.S. economy is doing well, which is good for the U.S. dollar, but bad for gold and silver; conversely, if the value decreases, it indicates that the U.S. economy is in a downturn, which is naturally bad for the U.S. dollar and good for gold and silver.

However, we can often see that non-agricultural data has three values: the previous value, the forecast value and the actual announced value. The previous value is the actual value released last month that we know. This is the data this time. of a basis. The forecast value is based on the market's prediction of the economic development of the United States based on the economic data of the past month, and then makes a numerical forecast for the non-agricultural data that will come later. The forecast value represents the market's expect. Therefore, if we want to judge the market response through the actual published values, we must compare the gap between the actual published values ??and the predicted values, and thereby further judge the price trend of gold and silver. To put it simply, when the actual announced value is greater than the predicted value, it is negative for gold and silver; when the actual announced value is less than the predicted value, it is bullish for gold and silver.

Let’s take this month’s non-agricultural data (2013.5.3) as an illustration. Before the data is released, the market begins to warm up its expectations, and after the data is released, the actual data Far greater than the predicted value, gold and silver prices began to accelerate their decline, but began to resume their normal trend after that day. Therefore, we also need to know this kind of economic data (for more information, please follow the WeChat public account "Global Foreign Exchange Voice").

6 Impact on Gold Price

Influence

How will the fundamental influencing factors affect the next trend? The trend of the US dollar in fundamentals is crucial, and the impact The main trend of the US dollar is the economic data of the United States. The most important economic data of the United States is the non-farm employment data. So how do ordinary investors respond to the shock and impact of non-agricultural data on the financial market? Next, I will give you some tips on how to connect the gold price with the impact of non-agricultural data based on my actual experience in non-agricultural data.

First of all, we must have a clear understanding of the relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar. Because gold is priced in U.S. dollars, and because the United States was the initiator of the Jamaica Agreement that kicked gold out of the stage of monetary history, and because The United States has more than 8,000 tons of gold reserves, ranking first among other countries and organizations. Therefore, the trend of the U.S. dollar has always been the weather vane of gold. The traditional historical relationship between the two is a negative correlation. When the U.S. dollar is strong, gold performs very weakly. This has caused gold to rise from more than 500 U.S. dollars to a historical high of 1,032 U.S. dollars. However, we have also seen that since the outbreak of the financial crisis, gold and the US dollar have sometimes been positively correlated. The positive and negative trends have made ordinary investors lose their reliance on the trend of gold prices.

Secondly, the impact of U.S. non-farm data on the U.S. dollar is transmitted to the gold market, and the magnitude of the two will definitely be inconsistent. Therefore, the results of U.S. non-agricultural data will first have an impact on the trend of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, it has a major impact on the foreign exchange market. I think the trend of gold is reflected in the passive technical analysis and study of fluctuations at almost the same time.

This means that it is already too late to enter the market when the non-agricultural data is released. At the same time, there is also a time lag in deciding the direction of buying and selling gold and entering the market based on the quality of the data. Therefore, it is recommended that everyone enter the market before the data is released. After the release, it is often full of shocks and trends that induce bullishness and shortfalling. In addition, the sharp fluctuations immediately after the data are released cause traders to increase trading spreads, making traders pay a strong cost. Closing a deal is extremely difficult.

Third, the impact of data on gold prices involves the impact of fundamental trends, that is, whether the news affects the price or the price confirms the news. It is more important not to discuss that here. There is definitely an impact on the price of gold due to non-agricultural data. When there are uncertain changes in non-agricultural data, we must first judge the trend of gold itself. Combining the fundamental factors and technical trends that affect gold prices, I think Before the release of non-agricultural data, the key should be to focus on the technical impact, that is, where the technical trend of gold prices is is crucial. Any news will be confirmed in technology trends. The role of technical analysis is to reveal and warn future trends in advance. After the non-agricultural news is announced, it only confirms or corroborates the trend.

Fourth, before the data is released, conduct a long-term analysis of the gold price, such as a comprehensive analysis of the monthly, weekly and daily lines, to establish that the current trend is in a longer cycle. Position? For example, the non-agricultural data to be released on the evening of June 4 is near $1,200. This position is close to the historical high of $1,248. At the same time, it is near the adjustment position of gold’s historical high. This determines that the general trend is still The bullish outlook remains unchanged, and while the correction does not break through the all-time high of $1,248, there is a need for more corrections. Secondly, we establish a key level of support at $1,198 and $1,187, and in terms of long-term trends, $1,166. With these positions as the basis, for the market fluctuations after the release of non-agricultural data, we generally have existing adjustment ideas and preparations and will not always consider going long, because yesterday's daily K-line was a huge negative correction, and the main tone should be Adjustment and short selling on rallies are the main options. With this direction, we should be sufficiently vigilant about the shocks after the non-agricultural data.

Fifth, of course, there is also the big impact of data on the trend of gold prices. The situation of each investor is different. Different investors and investors with different positions should have different choices. Including psychological quality, mainly whether the trading psychological quality is stable, etc. are related. Non-agricultural data will not determine the general trend of gold. Therefore, investors with small funds, prudent investments, large positions, and locked-up investors can choose to wait and see; ultra-short-term investors can adopt a two-handed operation method, hold on to key supports and resistances, and watch for breakthroughs after the non-agricultural sector. direction, if you break that direction, operate in that direction. One difficulty here is that the market induces bullishness and shortfall. I think that in order to overcome this market difficulty, we must have backhand ideas and preparations. Once the direction is wrong, stop loss and then backhand is a way to seize the relatively large fluctuation profits. Of course, you may continue to make mistakes and then stop the loss. Investment is to obtain a certain profit with appropriate risks, but the loss every time is smaller than the profit (for more information, please follow the WeChat public account "Global Foreign Exchange Voice").

Related Policies

Unemployment exists in every country. The existence of the unemployed will increase social instability, so every country will have unemployment insurance suitable for their own national conditions. .