Super historical outsole reappears who is the next crocodile "Lin Guangmao"

In just a few trading days last week, there was a rare bull market in the main contract of domestic cotton futures, with two daily limit in three days, recovering the decline for four consecutive months in one fell swoop.

The 20 10 cotton super bull market has made Lin Guangmao a crocodile and a fascinating wealth myth. Today, six years later, cotton futures have reached the "super historical bottom". The violent fluctuation of the market is usually a precursor to the beginning of the trend. This time, the cotton market will change. Who will be the "cotton hunter" who laughs last?

The delay in rotation and storage has stirred up the situation in the cotton market.

In the sharp rise of Zheng Mian futures last week, the spot market was boiling: the Yellow River Basin, one of the main cotton producing areas, has made a sound.

Li Shifu, a cotton broker in Hebei, said that just last week, he started to collect cotton from house to house. Due to the rising price of cotton, it is profitable to buy cotton. "According to the daily purchase of 2,000-3,000 Jin of seed cotton, you can earn 300-500 yuan a day. This market has not appeared for a long time. "

The last bull market in cotton appeared at 20 10-20 1 1, which once soared to the sky-high price of nearly 35,000 yuan/ton, and then fell all the way.

According to the report of China Cotton Information Network, the cotton price will be suppressed by 1 percentage point, and the net income of farmers will be reduced by 1 more than 100 million yuan.

According to industry insiders, the cotton spot market has begun to improve, driven by the recent soaring price in Zheng Mian. At present, cotton brokers in Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other regions are active again. Spot prices of some lint cotton rebounded slightly, and transactions in some areas picked up.

Not only that, in the process of the domestic spot cotton market rising last week, all foreign cotton and yarn rose, and some people even used "a strong wind rises in the clouds" to describe the current cotton market situation.

According to a cotton merchant in Hebei, the ex-factory price of hand-picked cotton in Xinjiang with the grade of 2 128B has reached12,750 yuan/ton, up by 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of April.

According to the statistics of china securities journal, the trading range of Zheng Mian futures main contract 1609 last Friday was 10440 yuan/ton to1770 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 12.74%. On the external market, in April 13, ICE cotton futures rose to the highest level in two months, and the most actively traded July contract closed up 0.84%, hitting the highest level of 6 1.70 cents since February 4. Market participants believe that the reason is that the supply and demand reports issued by short covering and the US Department of Agriculture are slightly favorable.

What happened in the cotton boom market last week?

He Junda, a futures analyst in Da Rui, believes that the recent strong performance of domestic cotton futures is mainly due to the failure to honor the rumors about dumping before the beginning of April, which led to the replenishment of stocks by downstream textile enterprises, the low level of warehouse receipts and the expected short-term supply shortage.

GF Securities believes that the huge changes in short-term cotton supply and demand have led to a sharp rise in the market. On the one hand, the auction progress of the State Reserve is delayed. Judging from the current public information, cotton reserves usually rotate from March to August every year, but this year is much later than in previous years and has not been dumped yet. On the other hand, at present, the inventory of enterprises in the industrial chain is seriously insufficient, because in the previous process of falling cotton prices, whoever has more inventory will lose money, so many enterprises have kept their inventory very low.

A 400 cotton enterprise in Dezhou, Shandong Province has sold out more than 270 tons of cotton in stock these days. The person in charge of the enterprise said, "No matter what the market outlook is, there is no cotton now."

Just this weekend, a person familiar with the matter told china securities journal that he saw the relevant documents on promoting the rotation of reserve cotton on 20 16. "At present, all parties concerned are making various preparations for the rotation of reserve cotton," he said.

Long-term "cotton hunter" in the stock market

Cotton futures fell by more than 10,000 points, or more than 50%, from the highest point of this bear market. In the shuttle between cattle and bears in cotton futures, people vaguely remember the myth of creating wealth of Lin Guangmao, a "thick soup savage".

Lin Guangmao, whose net name is "thick soup savage", is known as "the crocodile of cotton futures". He graduated from Beijing Institute of Materials in 2002, majoring in securities and futures. Since then, he has been a professional investor of China Textile Trader and the only China Textile Trader at that time. Individuals began to do futures in 2002, and they all lost money in less than half a year. After that, they experienced it four times, and the real stable profit was after 2008.

Producing more cotton is the first step for Lin Guangmao to become rich. In the spectacular cotton market of 20 10, Lin Guangmao persisted for 26 months. 20 10 holds more than 30,000 lots of cotton, earning 220 times to1300 million. 20 1 10, he earned 100000 yuan of empty cotton, 700 million yuan.

In those days, most people who entered the market with Lin Guangmao walked away when they retreated, while Lin Guangmao went from a floating loss of 60% on the books to a liquidation at the top, creating a legend from a floating loss of 60% to a profit of 2 billion.

"20 10, global cotton prices rose sharply. I started buying from 16600 until I finally increased my position to the upper limit of 30,000 lots (two main contracts, each limited to 15000 lots for a single customer). I closed my position two days before the price plummeted, and the profit in four months was 220 times, sweeping away most of the long profits. " Lin Guangmao recalled. He also ended his investment career as a trader for others.

"At first, I liked to do short-term work, and I often did Man Cang, which was like surfing. When the amount of funds accumulates to a certain extent, it begins to become a trend. " Lin Guangmao said.

In the recent cotton market, bulls have undoubtedly become the most proud hunters.

"This wave of cotton market, short selling was suddenly" zero deposit and whole withdrawal ",Sharp." Liang Ruian, a senior futures investor, lamented in Weibo a few days ago.

A short-term retail investor told reporters that he was afraid to continue buying after the first daily limit. "The market is too unexpected." He said.

There are also "cotton hunters" in the stock market.

GF Securities recently analyzed that the net profit of traditional textile manufacturing enterprises is positively related to cotton prices. Take the yarn-spinning enterprises as an example, the gross profit margin of yarn-spinning business is positively related to cotton price, because yarn-spinning sales mostly use cost-based pricing. This is true of Huafu Color Spinning, Blum Oriental, Lutai A, Lianfa and other companies. According to the calculation of performance elasticity, assuming the cotton price rises by 10%, and according to the linear regression analysis, the net profit of the above four companies is expected to rise by 6.25%- 16.68%.

In addition, securities researchers pointed out that among A shares, cotton and cotton yarn products of Changshan shares account for 60% of the main income, and the future performance is worth looking forward to; Xinsai Co., Ltd. is a national key leading enterprise in large-scale high-quality cotton industry, and the average yield of cotton in recent three years is higher than the world average. Aksu, where the new agriculture is developing, is one of the important commodity cotton production bases in China, and also the largest commodity cotton production base in northwest China. The region is rich in long-staple cotton agriculture, and the company has the advantage of developing cotton industry.

China securities journal reporter saw from the flush data that last week, the A-share textile manufacturing sector closed on the daily line for four trading days, and it has tripled in the last three trading days; The sector index rose by 4.9%. The share prices of the above seven listed companies all closed weekly, and the share prices of Changshan, Xinsai and Nong Xin Development rose continuously during the week, which was particularly obvious.

Qing Ping ended and the cotton bull market began to rise.

"At that time, cotton had more than16,000 points. 90% of the people in the spot industry agreed that although there was a short-term negative situation in the centralized listing of cotton, the fundamentals of supply and demand have changed dramatically." Lin Guangmao believes that a big market will certainly meet all the factors of the trend, but it is not necessarily a big market that meets the conditions of the trend. The core of the problem is that the fundamentals have changed dramatically.

Looking back on the performance of cotton market since 20 10, it is found that the change of cotton market policy is the most important factor affecting the cotton price nerve and the key factor to change the fundamentals.

From 20 10 to 20 1 1, cotton prices fluctuated greatly. In order to stabilize the cotton market, the state began to implement the temporary cotton purchasing and storage policy from 20 1 1 to 20 13. The price of cotton has dropped from the sky-high price of nearly 35,000 yuan/ton.

The temporary storage policy has stabilized domestic cotton production and safeguarded the interests of cotton farmers and downstream textile enterprises. However, in the case of high domestic cotton production, the price difference between home and abroad has further widened. China Cotton Information Network reported that, driven by the price difference at home and abroad, China cotton showed a surge in imports and a backlog of stocks, which caused damage to the domestic cotton industry.

The competitiveness of cotton industry in China is not enough, and the level of tariff protection is low. With the international cotton price falling continuously and the domestic production cost rising continuously, the situation of cotton trade is extremely severe.

20 14 with the implementation of the national cotton target price policy, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has gradually narrowed. 20 14,12,65438% tariff import price difference has been narrowed to 2500 yuan per ton. In the first half of 20 15, the average price of 3 128 cotton in China was per ton 13426 yuan, while the average price of cotton in the international market was1123/kloc-0 yuan, which weakened the import motivation of enterprises. After two years of consolidation and brewing, the industry has formed a knowledge: cotton is building the bottom of history.

Does the recent changes in the cotton spot futures market at the end of the Qing Dynasty indicate that cotton has been on the rise? Did Chunjiang make the cotton market pick up?

Analysts pointed out that the sharp rebound of cotton futures prices comes from the decline of textile enterprises' inventory and the increase of operating rate before the peak consumption season. At the same time, cotton yarn began to move to downstream weaving factories, and the demand for cotton replenishment in textile enterprises gradually warmed up.

Mei Ziqing, an analyst at China Cotton Information Network, pointed out that there has been a rare daily limit in the Zheng Mian market recently. Without the support of fundamentals, the accumulation of market changes, and the * * * shock effect of the futures market, it is impossible for any party to suddenly detonate the market alone. "The data of Xinjiang cotton outbound day tracked by the national cotton trading market shows that Xinjiang cotton outbound began to increase gradually after the Spring Festival, which also reflects to some extent that the downstream consumer market is picking up after the Spring Festival. However, the focus of the whole industry at that time was on the rotation of reserve cotton, ignoring these minor changes. "

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the year-on-year growth rate of textile exports in March was as high as 18.7%. Market participants believe that the export recovery is expected to bring a strong boost to the upstream cotton industry.

From the perspective of supply, the domestic cotton market is also in an obvious pattern of production reduction. According to the data of China Cotton Association, the national average cotton planting intention decreased by 1 1.5% in 20 16 years, slightly lower than the previous period. In terms of regions, the intention of planting cotton in Xinjiang cotton region decreased by 8.6%, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous period; Compared with the previous period, the cotton planting intention in the inland cotton areas decreased slightly, with the cotton area in the Yellow River basin decreasing by 19.06%, increasing by 0. 1 percentage point, and the cotton area in the Yangtze River basin decreasing by 15. 1 percentage point, increasing by 0.8 percentage point.

After the reserve cotton wheel comes out, it will be a long and short battle.

However, huge cotton stocks are still a concern of bulls. Even if the spot market picks up, the situation of downstream procurement, consumption and capital is not as optimistic as expected by cotton brokers and cotton enterprises.

A person from a textile enterprise in Wuhan, Hubei Province said that the recent surge in contracts in Zheng Mian has made many cotton processing enterprises in Xinjiang too enthusiastic. Some have suspended foreign quotations, while others have increased too much, which is difficult for cotton mills and weaving mills to digest.

Researchers believe that the fact that the rotation policy has not been announced does not mean that it will not be implemented or will not be implemented. In other words, even after a few days, the current commodity cotton resources will not cause market shortage, and the biggest impact may be the short-term market.

Xinhu Futures Research Report also believes that due to the sharp rise in cotton futures prices recently, lint prices have been raised, but there is no volume, and upstream orders have defaulted more. In addition, at present, the delivery price of imported yarn in the port is higher than that of domestic yarn, and the import kinetic energy is weakened. It is expected that the price of inner and outer yarns will be upside down or continued. In addition, the expected time of cotton throwing is approaching, the quality of reserves is seriously discounted, and receiving goods is also facing greater risks. The market prospect of Zheng Mian is still under great pressure.

"There are still many unknown details around the rotation of reserve cotton. For example, the specific time when the detailed rules are issued, the ways and means of re-inspection, the specific operation form, the matching of bundled transactions with the current inspection methods, the purchasing situation of domestic cotton and cotton yarn in the next few months, the change of domestic cotton quality price difference, the acceptance of prices in the downstream market, whether the vigorous consumption of textiles can be sustained, the interaction between market prices and target prices, the changes of futures warehouse receipts and the changes of traders' mentality, etc. "Mei Ziqing believes that the ups and downs of the market have always been extreme, either one or the other, but quantitative change to qualitative change is not a day's work. Similarly, the temporary daily limit does not mean that the market has reversed, which may be the real prelude to the long-short confrontation when the reserve cotton is transferred out.