People pay attention to the American economy, in fact, they see that under the background of economic globalization, the American subprime mortgage crisis, like the first fallen domino, is triggering the ebb of global wealth. As far as China's economy is concerned, what impact will the US economic fluctuation bring to China? Recently, the reporter visited Zhao Xijun, a professor at Renmin University, and Mr. Hou Ning, a famous financial commentator.
The United States sneezes and China catches a cold.
Global person: As for the current Sino-US economic relations, someone once described it as "when the United States sneezes, China catches a cold". In what ways do you think the fluctuation of American economy will affect China?
Zhao Xijun: First of all, the United States is still the largest economy in the world, and the change of American policy will definitely have an impact on China's economy. For example, changes in US trade policies and laws and regulations will affect China's export industry, which in turn will affect China's economic development; Secondly, what is obvious at present is the impact of the depreciation of the US dollar on China's economy. After the depreciation of the dollar, the prices of some raw materials denominated in dollars will rise sharply, which will undoubtedly increase the production cost of China's manufacturing industry, thus becoming an important factor to promote the price increase in China; Thirdly, after the weak US market, many investors around the world sold their US dollar assets on a large scale, and China's good economic environment became the favored object of international investors. As a result, a large amount of hot money poured into China, which had a great impact on China's capital market.
Hou Ning: The economies of China and the United States have reached the point where their lips are dead and their teeth are cold. The most direct influence on China is Sino-US trade and China's foreign investment, and the indirect influence is China's banks and stock markets. However, because the Chinese and American economies have the most connections in the real economy, China's foreign trade is also the most dependent on the American economy. It is in this sense that we find that the influence of American economy on China's economy is still reflected in the trade between the two countries. When the American economy fell into recession, China's foreign import and export volume dropped sharply, and a large number of manufacturing enterprises in China also faced bankruptcy. Of course, without "Made in China", the life of ordinary American families has also encountered unprecedented troubles. Sino-US trade is related to the economic development, enterprise survival and people's life of the two countries, and must be treated with caution.
Last year's subprime mortgage crisis in the United States showed more specifically the impact of American economic fluctuations on China.
Global person: Can you take the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States as an example and talk about it in detail?
Zhao Xijun: We can look at it from two aspects: trade and investment. From the trade point of view, the subprime mortgage crisis affects the real estate market and financial market in the United States, and then affects the consumer market, leading to a decline in demand, and then affects China's export industry. After the sales volume of export enterprises decreases, the profits and employment will decrease, which will inevitably lead to the economic downturn in China. In terms of investment, after the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the depreciation of the US dollar led to a large reduction in China's investment assets and foreign exchange reserves in the United States, which caused asset losses to individual investors and institutional investors in China. Another point that can't be ignored is that after the subprime mortgage crisis caused the dollar assets to shrink, many investors will put their money into China with higher return on investment, which will affect the future trend of China stock market.
Global person: Do you think that the American economy is exerting more and more influence on China's economy?
Hou Ning: We might as well look at this issue from a historical perspective. After the reform and opening up, the development of American economy to China's economy has gone through several stages: First, the stage of emancipating the mind. Before 1990, the influence of American economy on China was a conceptual game. The economic difficulties caused by planned economy made us realize its disadvantages, which led to the exploration of shareholding system reform; Second, the market trial stage. The main symbol of this stage is the birth of the securities market. At present, China's economic development model can't be said to have completely copied the American economy, but at least its influence is far greater than China's self-exploration; Third, the game stage of market and government supervision. Since the reform of non-tradable shares in 2005. At present, the American economy not only has a substantial impact on China's economy in terms of development mode and fictitious economy, but also has a substantial impact on China's economy in terms of foreign trade and other real economies. China has tasted the sweetness of market economy, but also found the challenges and shortcomings of free market economy. At this point, although China is still influenced by the American economy, it has also begun to explore new development paths.
The American stock market can indirectly affect the China stock market.
Global person: Will the US and China stock markets interact?
Zhao Xijun: The stock markets of the two countries are indeed moving in the same direction. In recent years, more and more American investors have invested in China and the United States. If the stock market is depressed, they may withdraw their investment in both markets at the same time, thus aggravating the depression in both markets. Similarly, if both markets are in good condition, they may invest more in both markets at the same time.
In addition, many domestic enterprises listed in Hong Kong through H shares, attracting a lot of investment, including American investors. Changes in the American market will be transmitted to China through Hongkong. At present, this influence is getting closer and closer.
Although there is a close relationship between the stock markets of the two countries, this interaction cannot be clearly defined in quantity. At present, there is not enough data to show that if the US stock market goes up 1%, China will go up 1%, the US stock market will go down 1%, and China will go down 1%.
Hou Ning: I once asserted that "the factors affecting China's stock market are beyond the stock market", which means that the development of China's stock market is not only subject to internal factors, but also the ups and downs of international stock markets such as the United States, foreign exchange markets and oil markets can seriously affect China's stock market in a certain period of time. The recent sharp drop in US stocks directly suppressed the rebound space of China stock market; US crude oil futures rose sharply, which indirectly put pressure on China stock market by affecting China's economic fundamentals. This is why China investors have to pay close attention to the US stock market, oil market and foreign exchange market.
Global person: At present, there is a constant debate about whether it is a blessing or a curse that international capital continues to flow into China. What do you think of this problem?
Zhao Xijun: International capital is divided into short-term capital and long-term capital. Long-term capital contributes to the economic development of China. Since the reform and opening up, we have absorbed a lot of international capital, which has played a great role in our economic development. However, when there are more and more short-term capital, it will bring economic fluctuations.
Short-term capital is hot money They entered China only to find some short-term and quick speculative projects. When they make money, they will quit, resulting in a large inflow and outflow of capital. The increase in capital has brought bubbles to some industries; When capital flows out, these industries will shrink and so on. Therefore, it is necessary to avoid the inflow and outflow of international hot money and guide the steady inflow and outflow of international capital.
With the global economic recession, it is difficult for China to be "immune"
Global person: At present, the economy of the United States and even the whole world is generally depressed. How should China respond?
Zhao Xijun: With the increasingly close global economic ties and the global economic recession, no country can be immune to it. As far as China and the United States are concerned, if the consumption level in the United States drops, it will affect China's export market. Therefore, we should try our best to let our enterprises expand the export market and make up for the reduced exports in the American market in other markets. In addition, when a commodity cannot be sold, we can exchange it for other commodities, that is, change our trade structure. Through these two methods, we can reduce the impact of the US economic downturn on China. More importantly, economic growth depends not only on exports, but also on exports, investment and consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to coordinate the proportion of the three and improve the quality and efficiency of economic development.
Hou Ning: Due to the rising international raw material prices, the depreciation of the US dollar and the domestic inflation in China, the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, where "Made in China" is concentrated, are gradually depressed, and the export of "Made in China" is gradually decreasing; At the same time, due to the appreciation of RMB and the rising labor cost, "Made in China" is no longer so cheap. In the current economic recession in the United States, in order to reduce costs, the United States may transfer its manufacturing center and import center to Vietnam, India and other regions. For some enterprises in China, this means work stoppage and workers' unemployment. We must realize the economic restructuring as soon as possible and get through this crisis, so as not to end up in a situation of "American recession, China pays the bill" when the American economy is in recession.
Global person: Not long ago, Soros pointed out in his book "The New Paradigm of Financial Markets" that although there would not be the Great Depression in the 1930s, there might be an extremely long global recession. What do you think will happen between China and the United States in the future?
Zhao Xijun: In the next two or three years, the developed countries led by the United States will enter a relatively difficult period of economic development. It is manifested in two aspects: first, the economic growth rate is slow; On the other hand, inflationary pressure is relatively large. In the first two quarters of the United States, the economic growth did not exceed 1.5%, but the price increase reached 4%. This shows that the American economy has experienced negative growth, which means that for all Americans, income has decreased and more money has been spent.
China is different. China's economy grew rapidly, reaching 10.4% in the first half of the year. However, we are also facing increasing inflationary pressure. In the first half of the year, the CPI reached 7.9%, but after deducting the price increase rate, China's economic growth rate is positive, which shows that our economy is growing. This is different from the negative economic growth in the United States. We are facing high growth and high inflation.
Hou Ning: The economic recession triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis is the worst since World War II. The average debt of every American family has exceeded $65,438+$0.4 million. Therefore, the subprime mortgage crisis can be said to be a "liquidation" of the American philosophy of overdraft life. It can be predicted that the American economy will be in a downturn in the next two or three years. Of course, China's economy is also facing the problem of historic transformation. Whether we can make use of our existing advantages to save the day when the American economy is in recession is also a new problem with both opportunities and challenges. But before that, I think we must do one thing, that is, we must not take chances, we must establish a sense of urgency and think about difficulties, rather than blindly hoping that we will be "immune." (