Faced with today's pig price, many farmers must be angry and hate, especially since 10, they are anxious to clap their thighs.
In fact, the reason for the sharp drop in pig prices this month is, in the final analysis, the "panic selling" on the supply side and the "less than expected" on the demand side, and even a discount.
Since entering the fourth quarter, the overall price of pigs has shown a downward trend, and both spot and futures have fallen sharply.
The highest price of live pigs during the year 10, 19 28 yuan/kg. Now the price of live pigs 17 yuan/kg fluctuates greatly.
In terms of futures, the live pig contract 230 1 also dropped from the high of 24,300 yuan/ton in June 10 to nearly16,500 yuan/ton at present, setting the lowest point after the listing of LH contract 230 1.
Whether from the spot end or the futures end, this decline far exceeds market expectations, and then feeds back to the market, affecting the trend of pig prices.
According to previous years, entering 65438+February and 65438+1October is the peak season for pork consumption, one is the demand for bacon, and the other is the terminal purchase and stocking before the Spring Festival, but this year is a bit' unusual'.
One phenomenon that must be mentioned is that the prevention and control policies have been adjusted. Unfortunately, it is not the peak season of adjusted consumption, but consumption has dropped sharply.
Because of the unsealing, there are many "sheep" in the market, especially most families have "bad colds" one after another, medicines are difficult to buy, and clinics are full, which has a great impact on life.
Everyone has no appetite at this time, let alone eating pork. Even when it comes to greasy things, they lose their appetite. Dining and dining are even more scarce, which will inevitably greatly affect the consumption of pork.
Although the solstice of winter has come, there is also a saying among the people that the solstice of winter is as big as a year, but in the current environment, there is still nothing to do about the substantial increase in pig prices.
With the development of pork consumption, signs of abnormal weakness are inevitable. When the supply of pork exceeds demand and the breeding end is still accelerating, the price of live pigs will directly fall further.
Generally speaking, there is only one month before the Spring Festival, and the market demand for bacon is gradually coming to an end. Under the constraint of "cold", catering consumption is sluggish, and it may take some time to really see the recovery of consumption.
The next only collection point may be the terminal stocking before the Spring Festival. Considering many factors such as "mask problem", high meat price and difficulty in making money, it is difficult to have a high probability in the peak season of consumption.
There is still pressure on the market supply side. It is understood that there are still a large number of second fattening pigs that have not been slaughtered, and this part is expected to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival.
In addition, in the second half of June 5438+February, some group pig enterprises accelerated the pressure of slaughter, and the policy released the signal of "two festivals" to release reserve pork. It is predicted that the highlight moment of pig price has passed, and the short-term pig price may continue the trend of "weak shock", and the pig price may further "bottom out".
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 0 and fell by 25, which was 1, and the falling areas accounted for 96% of all the monitored areas.
The average price of live pigs monitored nationwide is the lowest 8.78 yuan/kg, the highest 9.02 yuan/kg, and the overall average price of live pigs is 8.90 yuan/kg, which is lower than the national average price of live pigs yesterday 1.30 yuan/kg. Today, the overall price of live pigs shows a trend of "most of the plunge".
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement smoothness of slaughter enterprises in northern China is high, and the slaughter enthusiasm of farmers is obviously improved. Some farmers have no plans to sell pigs, and the market has repeatedly lowered prices.
The purchasing smoothness of slaughter enterprises in southern China is good, but it is difficult to sell120-130kg pigs,100-120kg standard pigs, and the purchasing demand of slaughter enterprises is poor.
Traders in leading groups are less enthusiastic about bidding, and pig prices in pig farms of Northern Group have declined to some extent. The price of pigs in the group's pig farms has dropped significantly, and traders' enthusiasm for receiving goods is poor.
The ex-factory price of live pigs of slaughter enterprises in Northeast China decreased by 1000 yuan/ton, the price of live pigs of slaughter enterprises in Shandong Province decreased by 500 yuan/ton, and the price of live pigs of some enterprises decreased by 3000-4000 yuan/ton.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the recent analysis of pig market factors, the market sentiment is poor and the bearish sentiment is still obvious. It is expected that pig prices will show a "large-scale decline" trend tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and raise pigs to make a fortune.