First, common misunderstandings and wrong applications?
In the application of technical analysis methods, investors who lack analytical experience often have the following misunderstandings and applications:
1. Over-reliance on technical analysis results. ?
Some investors believe that technical analysis method should be an accurate analysis tool, so they are superstitious about the prediction conclusion drawn by a certain analysis method. I met investor T at work. T is an economics lecturer and loves technical analysis methods very much. On one occasion, he made 50 soybean meal futures at 2900 yuan/ton according to his own technical analysis results. As a result, soybean meal futures rose instead of falling, breaking through the key resistance level of 3000 yuan/ton. We urged him to stop the loss as planned, but he refused to implement it. He also took out a drawing to explain: "I still insist on shorting because there is a technical analysis method." Finally, soybean meal futures soared to more than 3,400 yuan/ton, and investors suffered heavy losses. ?
2. Take some analytical methods as general tools for market forecasting. ?
Some investors think that every technical analysis method can be applied to any market environment. For example, whether the market has a trend or not, they should look at the moving average, or count the waves persistently regardless of whether the wave shape is clear or not. Obviously, the moving average method is generally applicable to the trend market, but if it is used to shock the consolidation market, the trading information it provides is mostly false signals. If investors use this information to trade, they will be punished by "clapping their hands with their left hands". Some investors participated in the transaction. ?
Wave analysis is one of the best and most valuable technical analysis methods recognized by investment masters, but it is not omnipotent. In practice, we often see that sometimes the wave pattern of the market is very clear and easy to identify and count, but when the market is too strong, the wave counter is confused because of the extension and re-extension of the wave; When the market is in a trend-free consolidation period, it is very complicated or easy to count the wrong waves because of the multiplicity and structure of the adjustment waves. ?
3. Ignoring the market environment and misusing technical analysis methods. ?
Regardless of the market environment, some investors are accustomed to using their familiar technical analysis methods, such as moving average and KD index, and lack research on the application of other analysis methods. Some people are still accustomed to using a single analysis method, forgetting Dow's teaching that "different analysis methods should confirm each other". ?
The above misunderstanding and wrong application have greatly affected the effective play of technical analysis methods. ?
Second, correct understanding is the key to the application of technical analysis?
Practice has proved that the key to the application of technical analysis method is to correctly understand and understand technical analysis method. The author thinks that we should correctly understand the technical analysis method from the following aspects:
1. Technical analysis method is a mirror, and history will repeat itself, but it is by no means a simple repetition. ?
The emergence of technical analysis methods enables people to infer and predict future market changes with the help of historical information of the market. Pioneers of technical analysis methods believe that "history will repeat itself", but this kind of repetition is by no means a simple repetition. For example, after seven years of bull market, the Shanghai Composite Index presents five complete rising wave patterns, among which 1, 3 and 5 all have five sub-wave structures, but the internal structure, running time and wavelength are different. ?
2. Technical analysis is mostly based on statistical analysis, and the analysis result is a probability event, not an absolute event. ?
This kind of understanding is very critical, which enables you to treat the results of each technical analysis objectively and dialectically without making some of the mistakes mentioned above. For example, after the market closes one day, analysts A and B analyze the trend of soybean futures the next day according to the internal information of Dalian soybean futures market. A predicts that the price will rise and B predicts that the price will fall. Is it cooked or not? It can only be decided by the price trend of soybean futures the next day, and before that, no one can decide. This example shows that the result of market analysis is only a prediction, which may be right or wrong. This prediction result should be used as the basis for making an investment plan, but preparations must be made to deal with the error of the prediction result in the plan. The stop-loss item in the investment plan is a necessary measure to prevent the analysis result from making mistakes. ?