Behind the continuous rise in coal prices is the international crude oil price, which has increased even more. Since 2006, the international crude oil price has risen sharply, from less than $60/barrel in early 2007 to 1 16.69 $/barrel on April 0, 2008, a record high, with an increase of nearly 100. In contrast, the price difference between crude oil and coal with the same calorific value has been in the historical high range. According to the latest price, the price ratio of crude oil and coal with the same calorific value has reached about 5 times, and this ratio has remained at 1.5-2 times in history. The advantage of coal price comparison is very obvious. The rise of crude oil price has played an important role in driving coal price. In addition to the long-term downturn in coal prices, the international kerosene price difference has been expanding to coal prices.
On the other hand, compared with the 42-year storage and production period of oil, the global coal can be used for more than 140 years. With the exhaustion of oil resources and the progress of coal utilization technology, the focus of energy utilization will shift to coal under the background of high crude oil prices, which will also lead to a long-term upward trend of coal prices. As for how much space there is for the international coal price to rise in the future, we will make a rough estimate according to the oil price in order to understand the future trend of coal prices.
From the conversion of equivalent calorific value of crude oil and coal, taking Australian BJ coal as an example, it is estimated that the calorific value of Australian BJ coal is about 5500 kcal/kg. According to the equivalent calorific value of international standards, 1.4286 kg of crude oil is equivalent to 1.4286 kg of standard coal, and 1 kg of raw coal is equivalent to 0.7 1.43 kg of standard coal. According to our preliminary calculation, the price of crude oil should be kept at11USD/barrel in the future, and the price of coal with the same calorific value should reach 40 1.5 USD/ton. Considering the factors such as efficiency and cost, we set this ratio as 1.5-2 times as a reasonable range. After conversion, if the future crude oil remains at $65,438/ton, the corresponding coal price should be at the level of $ 200-268/ton. According to the Australian BJ standard thermal coal price 124.65 USD/ton on April 24th, if the crude oil price remains at 1 10 USD/barrel in the future, the thermal coal price will still be around 75.35- 143.35 USD.
If the conversion of theoretical equivalent calorific value is divorced from reality, it may be more practical to calculate it with the conversion rate in the current coal-to-oil project. There is a common law in the world that "coal to oil" benefits, that is, when the price of crude oil is between 22 and 28 dollars per barrel, "coal to oil" can break even, and when the oil price exceeds 28 dollars, the benefit is very significant. Taking Shenhua Group's "coal-to-oil" project as an example, experts from authoritative departments estimate that the production cost of crude oil per barrel is between 30 and 40 dollars. As the Shenhua coal-to-oil project with the highest conversion rate, it needs to consume 3 tons of high-quality coal per kloc-0/ton of refined oil, while the coal-to-oil projects of other enterprises are in the horizontal range of 4 tons of raw coal consumption per kloc-0/ton of refined oil. Considering the continuous maturity of technology in the future, we have the right to calculate the conversion rate of every 3 tons of raw coal 1 ton of refined oil in Shenhua coal-to-oil project as a reference standard. At the same time, the proportion of refined oil from crude oil is 75%, and the quality of refined oil from 1 ton of raw coal is equivalent to 3.24 barrels of crude oil. Similarly, we take the future crude oil price as 1 10 USD. At present, the purity and quality of refined oil extracted by coal-to-liquid technology are much higher than that of crude oil, and the use efficiency is greatly improved. According to the price ratio of 1.5-2 times, when the crude oil is 1 10 USD per barrel, the reasonable coal price should be 178.2-237.6 USD/ton. According to Australian BJ standard thermal coal price 124.65 USD/ton on April 24th, there is still room for the price of thermal coal to rise by 53.55- 1 12.95 USD/ton.
Through the above two different calculation methods, we can roughly draw a rising space for coal prices. In terms of calorific value conversion, the rising space is 75.35- 143.35 USD/ton, and in terms of coal-to-oil conversion, it is 53.55-1/2.95 USD/ton. If the product quality factor of coal-to-liquid is considered, the results of these two different estimation ideas are basically in an interval. It is true that we only compare the prices of crude oil and coal, and the factors affecting the future price trend of coal are by no means limited to this, but as far as the current situation is concerned, the future rising space of coal prices is still very optimistic.