Oil prices will definitely rebound in the future, but it is unlikely to skyrocket. With the development of the epidemic, global oil demand has dropped by more than 30%, and oil prices will naturally fall. In addition, Saudi Arabia and Russia insisted on not reducing production before, which also dealt a heavy blow to oil prices. At present, oil prices have been hovering in the range of $20/barrel. Interesting critics believe that there are four main reasons for the inevitable rebound of oil prices: first, the United States will try its best to preserve the shale oil industry, which will inevitably raise oil prices; Second, Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached a production reduction agreement; Third, after the COVID-19 epidemic, oil demand will rebound; Fourth, oil prices have always fluctuated, with ups and downs.

First, the United States will try its best to ensure the shale oil industry. If the international crude oil price is less than $35/barrel, the shale oil industry in the United States will lose money. Shale oil mining costs are relatively high, ranging from $35/barrel to $45/barrel. American traditional energy industry is one of the most important financiers of US President Donald Trump. Why did Trump withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement? It is for the benefit of these traditional energy industries. Therefore, after the oil price fell, Trump kept calling Saudi Arabia and Russia. In order to be re-elected and continue to win the support of the energy industry, Trump is bound to raise oil prices.

Second, Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reached an agreement to reduce production. 20 16 Russia and the organization of petroleum exporting countries reach an agreement to reduce production. By February 2020, Russia refused to continue to reduce production and decided to increase production, which is also an important reason for the decline in oil prices. In addition to Russia's refusal to cut production, Saudi Arabia also said it would increase oil production.

Now Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached a production reduction agreement, and the two countries have reduced crude oil production by 165438+ 10,000 barrels per day. After the two countries announced production cuts, international oil prices rebounded. Russia and Saudi Arabia will continue to cut production in the future to ensure the rebound of crude oil prices. After all, the fall in international oil prices is very unfavorable to Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Third, international oil demand will increase. The COVID-19 epidemic has led to a sharp drop in oil demand, which is the most important reason for the drop in oil prices. Take the United States as an example In the month from March 6 to April 7, the oil demand decreased from 265,438+080 barrels per day to 65,438+0,465,438+00 barrels per day. However, as the COVID-19 epidemic slows down, the demand for oil in various countries will also increase, and the international oil price will naturally pick up. Now the range of $20/barrel is really abnormally low.

Fourth, oil prices are unstable. International crude oil prices are inherently volatile, and $20/barrel to $40/barrel is not normal at all. Before 20 10, the international oil price once exceeded 100 USD/barrel. Interesting comments suggest that when the COVID-19 epidemic ends, the oil price will return to the range of $40/barrel-$50/barrel.

Oil is the most important commodity in the world, and it is also related to the hegemonic position of the US dollar. The price will not maintain a high range for a long time, nor will it maintain a position range for a long time.