For the sudden decline in cotton turnover after the previous shock rebound, market participants said that the main reason is the lack of favorable support for demand, and the callback is inevitable. Ren Xinpu, director of yongan futures Research Institute, said that Zheng Mian lacks favorable support for going up, but there is limited room for going down again after the callback. From the end of Sunday, the price rebounded slightly, and there were short up and down leads on the small candle chart. It can be seen that the upward movement is weak, the downward movement is not easy, and the state of cotton's sharp shock will not simply change.
For the sudden decline in cotton turnover after the previous shock rebound, market participants said that the main reason is the lack of favorable support for demand, and the callback is inevitable. Ren Xinpu, director of yongan futures Research Institute, said that Zheng Mian lacks favorable support for going up, but there is limited room for going down again after the callback. From the end of Sunday, the price rebounded slightly, and there were short up and down leads on the small candle chart. It can be seen that the upward movement is weak, the downward movement is not easy, and the state of cotton's sharp shock will not simply change.
Wang Xiaobei, an agricultural product analyst at Hongye Futures, told reporters that there are two main aspects of Zheng Mian crude oil: one is that the fundamentals of adequate supply are empty, and the other is the superposition of disk pressure and the return factor of delivery month.
From a fundamental point of view, internationally, the listing progress of new cotton in India has exceeded the same period of last year, and the price of cotton in India has dropped at a high level; American cotton exports once again exceeded expectations, and the exportable volume in the later period was very limited, which weakened the support for international cotton; Major cotton-growing countries in the world, such as China, India and the United States, will increase cotton planting area next year.
Domestically, ICAC5 reported in May that the increase in cotton price of 16/ 17 led to the expansion of planting area of 17/ 18 in most major cotton producing countries. Among them, the cotton planting area in China has increased for the first time in five years, and it is expected to increase by 3% (to 2.9 million hectares), and the output will increase by 1% (to 4.8 million tons). China's cotton consumption is expected to increase by 1% (to 7.7 million tons), accounting for one third (24.6 million tons) of the global consumption. At present, the market listing volume of 30,000 tons per trading day, plus new cotton, will be quite sufficient by the end of this year. The cotton price index rose steadily, and the poor downstream sales led to the increase of yarn and grey cloth inventory and the decrease of yarn price.
At the same time, under the effect of the return of the current delivery month, the main cotton contract 09 failed to overshoot the pressure level of 16200 yuan/ton for many times and maintained a high operation for nearly two weeks. In recent months, the contract soared to 1.57 million yuan/ton in May, much higher than the spot price. Under the pressure of huge warehouse receipts and fundamentals, with the approaching of the contract delivery date in May, it is necessary for the 05 futures price to return to the spot price. Effective warehouse receipts gradually decreased before delivery, and the total number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Although the warehouse receipt pressure moves backward, the huge potential delivery volume puts pressure on the disk. At present, the market supply is loose and the short-term rise is weak.
Wang Xiaobei believes that at this stage, the general trend of international cotton prices has gone, domestic supply and demand are loose, and it is reasonable for Zheng Mian to cooperate with the downstream situation and the pressure of warehouse receipts to fall back. With the current policy unchanged, cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure.
Ji Ming, a researcher of agricultural products in Guolian Futures, said that the cotton transaction of the State Reserve was stable, the market paid close attention to the weather and capital flow, and the short-term cotton showed an adjustment trend. In his view, expansion may lead to downward pressure on cotton prices in the short term. However, due to the increase in production capacity and consumption, and the steady growth of cotton consumption year by year, the rigid gap of 3 million tons is likely to be limited. May-September is the growing period of cotton, which is easily affected by natural disasters and often leads to a wave of price increases. Therefore, the long-term bullish view of cotton remains unchanged.
At present, the supply of new cotton is loose, and the short-term trend is mainly adjustment, and the delivery in May may approach a low point. The future weather will guide the price trend, and the fluctuation range is expected to be 14600- 16900 yuan.