Stagflation pig!
On March 2, the pig price was sideways 15.9 yuan/kg, and it stabilized sideways. Although the center of gravity of pig price moved up obviously in February, it was obviously blocked in March. So, what changes have taken place in the pig market?
Judging from the market supply and demand, at the beginning of March, the pace of group pig enterprises was slow, and the mood of retail pig farms was not high. However, as the price of feed raw materials fell, the price of soybean meal fell sharply, and the corn market also fluctuated downward. The fattening cost of farmers decreased slightly, and some farmers turned losses into profits. Therefore, the mood of pigs in the market is divided, and the mood of pigs in some efficient pig farms is getting stronger, and the supply of pigs is slightly improved.
On the demand side, domestic consumption is not high. Although students return to school and all walks of life recover, the demand for collectivization is relatively stable, and pigs in the downstream market are gradually restored. However, due to the warmer weather, consumption is still in the off-season, and consumption support is still weak!
At present, the supply and demand of the live pig market are deadlocked, and the storage of frozen products at the breeding end is "passive". Therefore, the performance of collecting pigs is more flexible, and the mood of raising prices is not high.
However, at the beginning of the month, the amount of slaughter was relatively limited, and the supply and marketing of pigs was deadlocked. However, due to the deterioration of downstream demand, the rhythm of storage of frozen products in slaughterhouses may be further weakened, and the mood of second education is cautious. Some hot money is mainly piglets, and the risk of medium and low-standard pigs is greatly increased, which also limits the performance of pig demand! However, this month, the domestic supply level of live pigs will increase month-on-month, and the group pig enterprises will have incremental slaughter pressure, while the slaughter of live pigs in retail pig farms will continue to increase, and there will also be a phenomenon of selling on rallies!
Therefore, the supply and demand pattern of live pigs will gradually "tilt" in March. After the market's bargain-hunting sentiment exits, the market will return to the fundamentals of purchase and sale, and the pressure of "strong supply and weak demand" in the domestic pig market will increase sharply. This month's pig price may be mainly adjusted by weak shocks. In the early stage, the breeding end was cautious, and the pig price was mainly consolidated. The risk of falling pig prices will increase sharply in the later period!
Wheat is falling out of control!
At present, the domestic wheat price has been falling for more than a month, and the center of gravity of the spot price of wheat has also dropped significantly. At present, the mainstream quotation of domestic milling enterprises has dropped to 1.55~ 1.57 yuan/kg, which is more obvious than the quotation of 1.6~ 1.64 yuan/kg after Spring Festival. At present, dealers have entered the loss stage.
The center of gravity of wheat price is declining. There is still no sign of stopping the decline. Judging from the latest round of temporary storage and minimum purchase price wheat transactions, both temporary storage and minimum purchase price wheat transactions fell sharply on March 1 day, which doubled the pressure on the wheat market. According to the data, this round of minimum purchase price wheat auction 10 1500 tons, with an average price of 289,654.
In terms of two-way purchase and sale of wheat, in March 1, China Grain Storage Henan Company purchased and sold wheat in two directions 1. 1.9 million tons, with a turnover of 50%, mainly at the reserve price. Among them, the reserve price of wheat procurement in 23 years has dropped to 3090 yuan/ton!
The key to this round of wheat decline is bleak demand and loose supply! Due to the poor goods downstream of flour, the operating rate of flour milling enterprises is hovering at a low level, the confidence of enterprises in purchasing raw grain is insufficient, the wheat market is weak, traders panic to produce grain, the temporary storage of wheat constantly impacts the market, and the supply level of wheat is relatively loose!
Therefore, limited by the strong supply and weak demand in the wheat market, the price increase support is not enough, and when the wheat price stops falling, the key lies in when the downstream demand improves!
Personally, with the recovery of the catering industry, all walks of life will resume production overlap, and the Spring Festival is too long, and the downstream inventory will gradually be consumed. The operating rate of milling enterprises will gradually increase, and the raw grain consumption of enterprises will gradually increase and overlap. Recently, domestic wheat prices have fallen sharply, and the mood of enterprises to replenish stocks on dips will be stronger. Therefore, the space for further decline in wheat prices may be limited. It is predicted by some organizations that the main flour milling enterprises will quote the staged wheat price at 1.52~ 1.55 yuan/kg, while the price of raw grain purchased by grass-roots grain stations will be around 1.5~ 1.52 yuan/kg!
A terrible meal of soybean meal!
In the domestic spot market, the soybean meal market has been on a downward trend since mid-June last year165438+1October. In June 2022, 65438+ 10/0, the price of soybean meal in Shandong mainstream oil factory was 5750 yuan/ton. At present, Shandong Oil Factory offers 4280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65438. In Guangdong, the price of soybean meal in oil plants is as high as 5700 yuan/ton. At present, the price of soybean meal in Guangdong oil factory has dropped to 4 170 yuan/ton, while that in oil factory has dropped to 1530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.84%!
Domestic spot soybean meal prices fell sharply. In Guangdong, in the last month, the price of soybean meal in oil plants dropped by 490 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10.5%! Spot soybean meal prices are falling. Personally, it is a mismatch between supply and demand in the market, and the soybean meal market is under pressure in stages!
On the one hand, domestic soybean meal stocks are gradually increasing. After the Spring Festival, the oil plant started to work in an all-round way, the scale of soybean crushing remained high, the stock of soybean meal in enterprises continued to accumulate, and the supply level was greatly relaxed.
On the other hand, the downstream delivery mood is not good. Due to the centralized stocking of feed enterprises before the Spring Festival, the demand for soybean meal in the market dropped sharply after the year, and the spot soybean meal market continued to fall, and the downstream demanders of the market cautiously replenished their stocks. It is understood that there are still about 6.5 million tons of domestic imported soybeans in March, and the scale of imported soybeans in April is still about 9.6 million tons. Although, in the short term, due to the accumulation of soybean meal in oil plants, enterprises may stop working for maintenance.
In the short term, domestic spot soybean meal still has a weak downward trend, and traders and feed enterprises are cautious in taking delivery. However, with the shutdown of some oil plants in March, the pressure on soybean meal inventory will gradually improve, the pressure on overstocked inventory of enterprises will be reduced, and the price sentiment will pick up. Therefore, the soybean meal market will show a downward trend in March, but the soybean meal market will remain weak due to the loose scale of imported soybeans in April!
"Stagflation" pigs, falling "out of control" wheat, falling soybean meal, what happened? What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!