One shot goes off, and there are two thousand gold. The situation in the Middle East has been confusing recently. US sanctions against Iran have broken the balance between supply and demand of crude oil. At 65438+ local time1in the early morning of October 3, the United States attacked two targets in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Three rockets killed a senior commander of the Iraqi Shiite armed forces and Major General Qassem Suleimani, commander of the special forces of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. After the incident, the relationship between the United States and Iran changed suddenly, and the danger of war between the two countries increased. As hedge funds have entered the gold market, crude oil and gold have been rising recently.

Let's start with gold. If it is not affected by the event, gold itself is in the rising channel. According to the manufacturing data released last Friday, the speed of economic decline in the United States exceeded the expectations of many analysts, so gold rose on the support of risk aversion. In addition, from late September to early February, the price of gold has been suppressed by the liquidity shortage of the US dollar. Now the liquidity of the US dollar has eased, and the price increase of gold is normal. Therefore, the American attack only further supported the rise of gold and did not play a fundamental role. After the incident subsides, gold will fall back slightly from the high point, but as the relationship between the United States and Iran will remain deadlocked, the callback will not be too large. It will continue to rise after that.

Let's talk about crude oil. The previous increase in crude oil was affected by the reduction of production in OPEC countries, but the impact of this reduction on crude oil prices will not be too great, because shale oil production capacity has reduced the ability of OPEC countries to manipulate the international market. On the other hand, although international time has also caused the skyrocketing crude oil market, this influence will soon fade, and crude oil will remain at a high level after a little correction. However, the price position of crude oil will lead to a rapid increase in shale oil production capacity in the United States to fill the supply reduced due to panic, so the price of crude oil will enter a slow decline channel after a small correction.

In the long run, the downward pressure on international crude oil is even greater due to the slowdown in demand caused by the international economic downturn. Under the influence of OPEC's production reduction, American tobacco oil production capacity, supply and demand and other factors, crude oil prices will remain in the main trend of low volatility in the next 1~2 years, and too high or too low oil prices will be pulled back to the normal range by this trend.