On Thursday, the two cities opened lower and went lower, with a total turnover of 65.438+36.27 billion. On the disk, only the defense and military industries, petroleum and petrochemical industries rose, while the media, computer and social service industries were among the top losers. There were 48 daily limit and 44 daily limit in the two cities, and the net selling amount of funds in the north was 3.358 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.70% to 3,429.96 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 2.20% to13,252.24 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2. 1 1% to 2,783.90 points.

market outlook

Recently, the global financial market has been affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine. The violent fluctuation of the external stock market is also more or less transmitted to our A-share market. However, we find that the fluctuation range of the main board index, as the ballast stone of A shares, is far lower than that of the external market. Not long ago, five major international investment banks such as Credit Suisse, Bernstein, HSBC, Goldman Sachs and UBS were collectively optimistic about China. We think there are four reasons: first, the valuation of A shares is lower than that of mature markets in Europe and America, and the valuation of Shanghai Composite Index is only about half that of Dow; Second, the allocation of foreign capital to China's assets is relatively low. According to the statistics of Securities Times, the market value of Chinese stocks purchased by foreign investors through northbound capital, QFII and RQFII is close to 3 trillion yuan, of which northbound capital holds 2.55 trillion yuan. Although the stock market value is more than three times that of 20 18, it only accounts for 3% of the total market value of A shares. Including QFII, the market value of A shares held by foreign investors is less than 5%. The proportion of foreign investors holding US stocks in its total market value is about 15%, and the proportion of foreign stocks held by Japan, Brazil and South Korea is even higher. Third, the political and economic environment in China showed strong resilience during the epidemic; Fourthly, compared with developed economies, China's fiscal and monetary policies still have a large space for countercyclical regulation. We believe that this is the long-term certainty of A-share stability in the current uncertain external market environment.

Going back to the specific investment products, we can see that although A-shares follow the correction of the external market, there are also many trading opportunities, especially the industries that we have always mentioned before that benefit from inflation expectations, which have been continuously verified by the market recently. Goldman Sachs also mentioned recently that the conditions for "super soaring" of commodities are already in place. In fact, even without the current geopolitical conflict, considering the demand rebound caused by economic recovery after the global epidemic and the supply contraction under the influence of carbon neutrality, the rising cycle of commodities may come soon, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine only aggravates this long-term certainty in the short term.

Operation strategy

We can't answer the future geopolitical risks, but we can look for trading opportunities from the above certainty. It is suggested to lay out new infrastructure opportunities such as finance, real estate and TMT around the expectation of steady growth. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to cement, steel, non-ferrous metals, oil and gas and coal under the expectation of imported inflation.

Li, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, with the practice certificate number S0260612110012.