China is a big agricultural producer, and chemical fertilizer is a means of production closely related to agricultural products, which is called "coarse cereals".
Urea is the most commonly used nitrogen fertilizer and the largest chemical fertilizer variety. In 20 18, the output of urea in China accounted for 67% of the total output of nitrogen fertilizer and 42% of the total output of chemical fertilizer. China is also the largest producer and consumer of urea in the world. In 20 18, the proportion of urea production and consumption in the world was 26.30% and 27.35% respectively.
In 20 18, the domestic urea market showed a good trend, the industry profits increased substantially, and the market supply and demand were stable. The price of main producing areas runs at a high level in the range of1800-2,200 yuan/ton, which is higher than the price of 20 1450- 1700 yuan/ton. The peak price in the first half of the year was 1.998 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 1.988 yuan/ton in mid-June, respectively, and the trough appeared in mid-April and the end of July.
At present, more than 80 countries in the world produce urea, and the main producers are China, Indian, Indonesian, Russian and American. With the deepening of world economic integration, urea production will gradually focus on resource producing areas and consumption areas. The areas with superior resources are mainly the Middle East and Russia. Asia is the world's largest urea consumption area, accounting for about 65% of the world's total consumption. At the same time, it is also the largest urea producing area in the world, with basically balanced production and sales.
Relevant data show that in 20 18 years, the global urea sales volume is expected to reach1830,000 tons, and the import volume will increase by 49 million tons, with an increase rate of 1%. The regions with large imports are: South Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and North America's imports have dropped by 20%. In 20 18, the global urea production capacity is expected to reach1940,000 tons, the actual output is1640,000 tons (based on the operating rate of 85%), and the demand is1740,000 tons, so the global urea supply and demand are in a tight balance.
If China imports in large quantities, it will inevitably lead to tight supply in the international market. In addition, imported urea has a long operating cycle and high risk, and the expected import volume is limited. If the production capacity in some areas starts abnormally, or the demand exceeds expectations, there are some opportunities for China to export nitrogen fertilizer, especially in East Asia, Southeast Asia and other regions, and China is still very competitive.
At present, the domestic urea industry is characterized by oversupply, and the industry as a whole does not make money.
Since 2009, the price of urea has reached 201May, the highest price is 24 19 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 20 1 150 yuan/ton in August, 6, with a total fluctuation range of 52%, and the fluctuation ranges over the years are all above 20%.
Polished rice futures
China is the largest producer and consumer of japonica rice in the world. From 20 10 to 20 18, the average annual growth rate of japonica rice yield in China is about 4.5%. In 20 18, the output of japonica rice in China was about 47 million tons, accounting for about 68% of the global total output; The consumption is about 42 million tons, accounting for 6 1% of the global total consumption. Affected by planting areas, japonica rice processing in China has obvious regional characteristics. Northeast China and Jiangsu are two major japonica rice producing areas in China. In recent years, the production of japonica rice in Northeast China has developed rapidly, and the output of japonica rice in the three northeastern provinces has exceeded 50% of the national output.
The traditional consumption area of japonica rice in China is mainly concentrated in the northern region, but with the deepening of urbanization and frequent migration of population, the consumption of japonica rice in the eastern coastal areas dominated by Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai and some central and southern regions is also increasing. At present, North China, East China and Northeast China are the main consumption regions of japonica rice in China, and the total consumption of the three regions accounts for nearly 80% of the total consumption in the country.
The price of japonica rice has a high degree of marketization, and its fluctuation has increased year by year in recent years. Taking the ex-factory price of japonica rice in Jiamusi area of Heilongjiang Province in recent three years as an example, the lowest price is 3850 yuan/ton, the highest price is 4520 yuan/ton, and the price fluctuation range is 17.4%. For the japonica rice processing industry with an average net profit rate of only about 2%, such a large price fluctuation makes the related entities of japonica rice face greater business risks.
No.20 standard glue
Usually, the natural rubber we refer to refers to the natural latex collected from Brazilian rubber trees, which is made into elastic solids through curing, drying and other processing procedures. Natural rubber is a kind of natural polymer compound with cis-1, 4- polyisoprene as the main component. Its rubber hydrocarbon (cis-1, 4- polyisoprene) content is above 90%, and it also contains a small amount of protein, fatty acids, sugar and ash.
Natural rubber has excellent resilience, insulation, water repellency and plasticity. After proper treatment, it also has valuable properties such as oil resistance, acid resistance, alkali resistance, heat resistance, cold resistance, pressure resistance and wear resistance, so it is widely used. For example, rain boots, warm water bags and elastic bands used in daily life; Surgical gloves, blood vessels and condoms used in the medical and health industry; All kinds of tires for transportation; Industrial conveyor belts, conveyor belts and acid alkali resistant gloves; Irrigation and drainage hoses and ammonia bags for agriculture; Sounding balloons for meteorological measurement; Sealed shockproof equipment for scientific experiments; Aircraft, tanks, cannons and gas masks for national defense; Even high-tech products such as rockets, artificial earth satellites and spaceships are inseparable from natural rubber.
At present, the subject matter of Hujiao transaction and the newly established No.20 rubber are both natural rubber, and the difference between them mainly lies in the difference in the amount of impurities contained. According to the national standard, the impurity content of RU in Hujiao is 0.05%, and the impurity content of No.20 glue is 0.2%. The former has the best quality and is generally used to produce tire inner tubes, while the latter is generally used to produce tire outer tires. Judging from the actual use, the dosage of No.20 glue is much higher than that of Shanghai latex, but the price is lower than that of Shanghai latex. In the spot market, the difference between the two is generally around 500 to 600 yuan. Then, it is reasonable to think that if the 20 th rubber futures are listed, it can basically be determined that the trading volume is greater than the current Shanghai rubber. Therefore, by that time, the market funds will tilt to 20 glue, which will lead to the shrinking of the existing Hujiao Confucianism transaction.
Rubber trees are planted in 465,438+0 countries and regions in the world, mainly distributed between 65,438+00 south latitude and 65,438+05 north latitude. The country that produces the most dry rubber is Malaysia, followed by Indonesia and Thailand.
1984 China's annual dry rubber output 188800 tons, rubber planting area of 494 1000 hectares, ranking fourth in the world, and its output also ranks fourth. The main rubber planting areas are Hainan Province and Xishuangbanna, Yunnan Province. 1984, the rubber planting area in Hainan province was 292 1000 hectares, accounting for 59. 1% of the total rubber planting area in China, and the rubber output was124,300 tons, accounting for 65.8% of the total dry rubber production in China. The high-yield area in China is Xishuangbanna, with an average dry gum 1 188kg per hectare in 1984, followed by Tongshi area in Hainan Province, with an output of 1006.5kg.
The global natural rubber production exceeds120,000 tons, of which about 70% is used for tire manufacturing, and about 80% uses 20 # rubber. On the supply side, in 20 16, the global output of No.20 glue was about 7.76 million tons, among which Indonesia and Thailand ranked in the top two, and the output of No.20 glue was 3.03 million tons and 2.62 million tons respectively, accounting for 39% and 34%, accounting for 73% in total. In terms of demand, the global consumption of No.20 glue in 20 16 was about 75 10000 tons, among which China has become the number one consumer of No.20 glue in the world, with a consumption of 3.07 million tons, accounting for 4 1%.
Although China is the main consumer of No.20 glue, its output is small and it needs to be imported in large quantities. Therefore, the supply and demand balance of No.20 glue in China mainly depends on the consumption and import of No.20 glue. In 20 17, China imported 20 # rubber1680,000 tons, accounting for 60% of China's natural rubber imports. In 20 17, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia accounted for 88% of China's 20 # rubber imports, and the imports of these three countries accounted for more than 57% of its total exports.
If imported No.20 glue is used as a substitute delivery product, the shippable quantity of No.20 glue will be greatly increased. At the same time, considering the domestic consumption of No.20 glue, overseas markets will refer more to the domestic No.20 glue futures price when making inquiries and quotations, so as to further grasp the pricing discourse power.
In addition, the listing of No.20 rubber will force all latex futures warehouse receipts to flow into the spot market and compete with other rubber types (such as Yue 3L, etc.). ) and accelerate the destocking of futures stocks. At present, there are 8 brands of products delivered in China, which are produced in 4 state-owned enterprises (Yunken, Guangken, Sinochem and Haijiao) and 1 private enterprise (Manlie). After the listing of No.20 glue, it is estimated that the total latex processing capacity of these major enterprises will decrease year by year, and enterprises may increase the output of main adhesives used by downstream enterprises such as No.20 glue and 97 10, so as to promote the gradual transformation of enterprises and enhance their international competitiveness.