Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has completed three cycles of movement. The peak years of the cycle are 1978, 1984, 1992 and 2007; The trough years of the cycle are 198 1 year, 1990, 1999 and 2009. The average length of the period is 9- 10 years. In the latest economic cycle, 2007 was the peak year, and 2008 and 2009 were the contraction periods of the economic cycle. If there are no sudden major events, China's new round of economic expansion will last for 7-8 years.

The macroeconomic cycle is directly related to the rise and fall of glass prices.

2) Capacity growth

The situation is excellent, some enterprises blindly invest and expand, and then fall into a trough, and overcapacity brings industry risks. According to statistics, since 2009, the production capacity of float glass in China has increased rapidly. It is preliminarily estimated that about 65,438+05 production lines will be put into operation in 2065,438+02, with an additional production capacity of about 63 million weight boxes. Glass has the characteristics of continuous production, and the stable release of production capacity obviously exceeds the growth of downstream market demand such as real estate, automobile and export.

3) the influence of downstream demand

Glass and its processed products are widely used in emerging industries such as construction, transportation, decoration, electronic information, solar energy utilization, etc., among which float glass for construction and decoration accounts for about 70%, and the application of glass in automobile and new energy fields is gradually expanding, so the development and changes of downstream real estate industry, automobile and new energy industries have a great impact on glass demand.

4) Upstream price

The rising price of raw materials supports the price of glass and reduces benefits; The price of raw materials has dropped and the benefits have increased, which makes the price have room to explore.

The rising prices of raw materials such as soda ash, coal, heavy oil, natural gas and electricity, as well as the increase of financial costs such as personnel wages, lead to the rising production costs of glass enterprises, thus affecting glass prices.

5) Regional distribution characteristics

A) In recent years, the production line construction has moved from centralization to differentiation;

B) Affected by the elimination of backward production capacity, the production capacity in North China has increased rapidly;

C) The production capacity in Northeast and Northwest China is relatively stable;

D) Affected by the transportation cost, the products for long-distance transportation are decreasing.