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Characteristics, trends and evaluation of my country’s recent monetary policy

First, reasonably expand the scale of bank credit. Maintain a reasonable growth in currency and credit, remove restrictions on the credit scale of commercial banks, reasonably expand the credit scale, ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system, and provide timely liquidity support to financial institutions. Increase support for key projects, energy conservation and emission reduction, environmental protection, independent innovation, rural areas and farmers, small and medium-sized enterprises, infrastructure and service industries, and cultivate and consolidate consumer credit growth points in a targeted manner.

Second, further broaden the financing channels for enterprises. Accelerate the development of non-financial corporate debt financing instruments such as corporate bonds, corporate bonds, short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes, and expand corporate financing channels. Accelerate the development of the inter-bank bond market with institutional investors as the main body, and provide a platform for the implementation of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. Promote the stable and healthy development of the stock market and increase the proportion of direct financing.

Third, continue to lower interest rates and deposit reserve ratios. In order to prevent economic recession, the central bank will further relax monetary policy, and lowering interest rates and deposit reserve ratios are the central bank's most powerful monetary policy tools. The former can reduce the financing costs of enterprises, and the latter can provide more credit funds for banks. The central bank will comprehensively use a variety of policy tools to increase support for promoting economic growth and effectively meet the real economy's reasonable demand for financial services.

Fourth, implement differentiated monetary policies to promote economic transformation. A moderately loose monetary policy will not treat all industries and enterprises equally, but will adhere to the principle of "protection and pressure, and differentiated treatment" to reflect the country's industrial policy orientation and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and the transformation of economic growth methods. Change the economic structure in the direction expected by the policy. Monetary policy will guide the flow of funds through differentiated deposit reserve ratios, differentiated interest rates, window guidance, credit policy guidance and other means. Through policy guidance or direct intervention, funds will be invested in strategic areas and leading areas on more favorable terms than market finance. industries, pillar industries, etc., and at the same time, policies such as "two highs and one capital" strictly restrict credit extension to industries and enterprises.

In the past, our country has not implemented a loose monetary policy. In order to cope with the impact of the financial crisis, it is difficult to use exact quantitative indicators to evaluate the extent of the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, but it may be Analyze this problem in a comparative manner.

First of all, in the process of responding to the financial crisis, there are qualitative differences between my country's macro policy operations and the rescue policy operations of major Western countries. The main policies of the United States, Europe and other countries are to expand national credit, inject capital into the financial market and directly provide financial assistance to large financial institutions and enterprises, and implement direct takeovers or indirect nationalization of rescued financial institutions, and the amount of rescue is very large. According to incomplete statistics, since the passage of the bailout bill in the United States, the funds for the rescue plan have reached more than 1 trillion US dollars, of which more than 250 billion US dollars have been used to directly purchase bank shares, and there are also trillions of dollars in real estate mortgage bond purchases, etc. . At the G20 Summit in London in April this year, it was announced that it would inject US$1.3 trillion into the global economy, accounting for nearly 1.7% of global GDP. In September, the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, USA, once again confirmed the bailout policy and would not delist lightly before it is certain whether the economy has fully recovered.

Compared with the unprecedented international rescue plans, the main purpose of my country's 4 trillion investment plan and a package of response measures implemented over two years is to start to increase domestic demand and make up for the gap in export decline, rather than directly providing financial institutions with funds to rescue them. and businesses. In response to the crisis, the central bank adopted indirect control measures such as appropriately lowering the deposit reserve ratio, interest rates, and reducing the amount of base currency sterilized due to the growth of foreign exchange reserves, keeping the liquidity of financial institutions moderately loose, and creating a relatively loose monetary environment.

Secondly, judging from the lowered deposit reserve and interest rate levels, my country is still significantly higher than Western countries. The central banks of major Western countries such as Japan and the United States have lowered interest rates to zero or close to zero: the U.S. federal funds rate has been as low as 0.15%, and the rediscount rate has dropped from 2.25% in the third quarter of 2008 to 2009. 0.5%, Japan also dropped from 0.75% in the third quarter of 2008 to 0.3% in 2009, while my country's rediscount rate only dropped from 2.97% at the end of November 2008 to 1.8% at the end of 2008. For another example, my country's current benchmark loan interest rate of 6 months to one year is 5.31%, Japan's current highest main short-term loan interest rate is only 1.725%, and the main short-term loan interest rate in the United States is 3.25%. Even taking into account the impact of CPI, my country's overall interest rate level is still higher than that of other major developed countries.

In addition, judging from the historical comparison of my country's monetary policy operations, the current level of liquidity control has not been completely relaxed. Since the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, my country's central bank has lowered the deposit reserve ratio four times by a total of 3 percentage points and lowered the interest rate five times by a total of 2.16 percentage points. Despite this, my country's deposit reserve ratio is still at a historically high level, the rediscount interest rate is still higher than the discount market interest rate, and the six-month to one-year loan interest rate is currently down to 5.31%, although it is the lowest level since 2002. , but the interest rate spread between deposits and loans of financial institutions is even smaller than before the implementation of tight monetary policy.

Therefore, judging from the intensity of my country's implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, there is no problem of "excessive easing".

Based on the seriousness of this financial crisis, my country’s response measures are to strike quickly and strike hard. Just like when a person is seriously ill and needs strong medicine, the medicine will inevitably have side effects. The side effects of strong medicine are greater, but if the dosage of the medicine is insufficient and the disease is delayed, the consequences may be more serious.

Of course, in the process of implementing monetary policy, we should also consider some emerging contradictions and problems. For example, loan concentration was relatively high in the first half of the year, with bank credit concentrated on infrastructure, mid- to long-term, and large enterprises. The investment projects launched to get out of the crisis have not only boosted economic growth, but also eased the adjustment pressure on some industries with overcapacity. When the stimulus effect of these investments comes to an end, the risk of overcapacity will still emerge. In addition, local government investment and financing platforms are concentrated in advance, and the credit risks faced by financing cannot be ignored. We all need to pay close attention to and be vigilant about these contradictions and problems.