The futures market is the product of the development of the market economy to a certain stage, and the history of the emergence, development and change of the world futures market bears the imprint of the economic development track. Different countries and regions in the world have different economic development trajectories, and their futures markets have different development trajectories and characteristics. The different economic backgrounds of the emergence and development of futures markets determine that these futures markets occupy different dominant positions in the global or regional futures market competition pattern. This paper attempts to analyze the competitive development model of the futures market with the theory of comparative advantage, study the relationship between the competitive development model of the futures market and the economic development of the host country or region, explore the deep-seated reasons that determine the competitive development model of the futures market, and put forward a new idea that the futures market can integrate the factor endowment conditions inside and outside the host country or region through institutional and technological innovation in the process of competitive development, so as to gain an advantageous position.
First, the comparative advantage analysis of competition among futures markets
Why can the futures trading of some commodities in a certain country or region flourish? For example, why can Chicago become an agricultural futures trading center in the United States and the world instead of Kansas City? Why can the United States dominate the world financial derivatives market? Why has the European financial futures market developed rapidly in recent years? Porter believes that what affects industrial development is not only the company's ability to create its own core competitiveness and competitive advantage, but also whether the country or region has or lacks certain attributes. As a derivative market based on spot market, futures market will form corresponding comparative advantages in the process of competition and development in countries and regions with comparative advantages or futures markets based on industries with comparative advantages. According to the comparative advantage and related theories, the comparative advantage of the futures market mainly comes from the factors, demand, competitors and industrial policies of the country or region where it is located.
The comparative advantage analysis of 1. Factor condition refers to the resource endowment of the country or region where the futures market is located, which is an important factor for a country or region to form a comparative advantage. Resource endowments can be created or inherited, which are generally divided into four categories.
(1) material resources. The availability, quantity and quality of material resources and the cost of land, water, minerals and other natural resources determine the material resources of a country or region. Material resources are usually non-renewable resources, which is obviously one of the important conditions of commodity futures market based on physical commodities such as agricultural products and energy.
(2) Sources of funds. As an integral part of the capital market, the futures market must have sufficient liquidity to realize basic economic functions such as hedging and price discovery. The availability, quantity, cost and type of available capital vary from country to country. If a country's futures market meets competitors from countries or regions with low capital cost, the futures market with low capital cost can maintain lower prices, such as lower financing cost and abundant capital supply, which will force the market with high capital cost to either accept low investment return or withdraw from this kind of futures market.
(3) Infrastructure resources. Infrastructure includes banking system, settlement system, transportation system, communication system, legal system, availability and use cost of these systems in a country or region. Mature futures markets usually have very advanced infrastructure, which is also an important comparative advantage of mature futures markets.
(4) Knowledge and human resources. If a country has a considerable number of R&D talents and market-related knowledge, it means that the country has knowledge resources. The futures market is an important financial derivative tool, the foundation of financial engineering, and the most widely used industries of cutting-edge technologies such as information, network and computer. The research level of futures theory in a country or region and the number of related R&D talents and technical talents all affect the competitiveness and development potential of the futures market in this country or region.
2. Comparative advantage analysis of demand situation. Futures market is a financial tool to avoid price risk and investment demand. Whether there is a commercial demand for managing price risk in a country or region, whether this commercial demand is strong and extensive, determines the demand for futures market in this country or region, and will promote the emergence and development of futures market, which is the most important factor to determine whether the futures market can form a comparative advantage.
3. Comparative advantage analysis of competitors. Competition will have a great impact on the comparative advantage of a country or region's futures market.
Innovation is the core content of competition in the futures market, and innovation ability and innovation power determine the competitiveness of a country or region's futures market to a certain extent. The competition between futures markets in a country or region helps to maintain the vitality and vitality of the futures markets in that country or region, and constitutes the driving force for continuous improvement and innovation. Insufficient regional competition will make the local futures market complacent and eventually lose its international competitiveness. Therefore, although the number of futures markets in a country or region should not be too large from the perspective of price discovery and optimal allocation of resources, maintaining moderate competition will help the futures market to form a comparative advantage in innovation.
4. Comparative advantage analysis of industrial policy. Industrial policy is a factor that can have an important impact on the competitive advantage of the futures market. Encouraging industrial policies will enhance the comparative advantage of a country or a region's futures market, while restrictive industrial policies will weaken its comparative advantage, leading to the outflow of domestic safe-haven demand and inhibiting market development.
All the above factors play a very important role and will affect the formation of the comparative advantage of the futures market. Among these factors,
(1) Material resources are non-renewable resources and are necessary conditions for developing commodity futures markets based on related products. Whether material resources can truly form a comparative advantage ultimately depends on whether there is a demand to avoid price risks in related industries and the intensity of this demand.
(2) Other conditions such as capital and infrastructure can be created. Among them, capital, infrastructure and demand mainly reflect the overall economic development level of a country or region, which constitutes the basic environment for the futures market to form a comparative advantage. These factors are difficult to change in the short term and need to be gradually improved with the continuous improvement of the level of economic development. From a long-term or macro perspective, the futures market is the product of a certain stage of economic development, and the level of economic development determines the scale and level of the futures market.
Therefore, capital, infrastructure and demand determine the overall development level of the futures market. No matter how good the material resources are and how active the industrial policies are, the development of the futures market cannot exceed the overall level of economic development.
(3) Knowledge and human resources, domestic competition and industrial policies can be improved in a short period of time through the policy adjustment of government supervision departments, that is, the state concentrates human and financial resources on the futures market by implementing encouraging industrial policies, appropriately adjusts the futures market structure, and creates a good development environment for the futures market, so as to promote the formation of comparative advantages and enhance the competitiveness of the futures market. In countries and regions with similar economic development levels, material resources and industrial policies will play a more important role in the competition and development of the futures market.
Second, the change of the competition pattern in the world futures market.
In the course of the development of futures market for a century and a half, the development of futures market in different countries or regions is unbalanced, among which the United States, Europe and Asia-Pacific region play an important role in the change of the competition pattern of the world futures market. By analyzing the futures market environment of these countries or regions, we can clearly find that they all have their own comparative advantages, which constitutes the deep-seated reason for their position in the world futures market competition pattern.
(A) the competition and development of the US futures market
As the birthplace of modern futures market, the United States has always occupied an absolute dominant position in the world futures market. 1In the 1990s, the futures markets in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region rose rapidly, and the absolute leading position of the United States in the global futures market was challenged, and its market share continued to decline. But as far as a single country is concerned, the United States is still the international futures trading center with the most complete futures varieties, the most perfect futures system and the most comprehensive comparative advantages in the world.
1. Factor conditions and the comparative advantage of American futures market. The factor conditions comprehensively reflect the overall economic development level of a country. In the process of changing the competition pattern of the world futures market, economic development determines the comparative advantages of futures markets in different countries or regions and their position in international competition. The United States is the largest producer, trader and consumer of basic products such as agricultural products, mineral resources and energy in the world. Its material capital accounts for 33.6% of the world's total material capital, American R&D scientists account for 50.7% of the world's total, and skilled labor accounts for 27.7% of the world's total. Under such superior resource endowment conditions, the United States maintains a large market share in the world physical goods and financial futures and options markets, and has a leading edge in international competition. The United States occupies most of the market share in all kinds of products except metals and plays a vital role in international trade. The futures prices of these commodities have become the pricing benchmark of international trade. In the financial futures market, the United States has been leading the trend of financial futures innovation in the world. The first batch of futures contracts of foreign exchange, interest rate and stock index futures are all produced in the United States, and its S & P500, NAS-DAQ 100, US medium and long-term treasury bonds and major foreign exchange futures and options are among the top financial futures products in the world.
2. Demand situation, industrial policy, domestic competition and comparative advantage of American futures market. In terms of hedging demand, the US economy is highly market-oriented and there is a strong commercial demand for futures trading. The futures market has developed into a completely open international market, which not only meets the domestic hedging and investment demand, but also introduces the global hedging and investment demand and investment capital into China, forming a comparative advantage that other countries cannot match. In terms of industrial policy and domestic competition, the United States has adopted an industrial policy of paying equal attention to financial futures and physical commodity futures, free competition and survival of the fittest according to its own resource endowment conditions, which has comprehensively enhanced the international competitiveness of the US futures market.
(B) European futures market competition and development
Under the background of the introduction of Euro, the European futures market once again glows with new vigor and vitality with the help of technological innovation and institutional innovation, and plays an important role in today's world futures market structure.
1. Material resource endowment and comparative advantage of European futures market. Generally speaking, compared with the United States, European countries are basically pure consumers of all kinds of goods, and resources are relatively scarce. After 1990, the trading volume of physical commodity futures (except LME non-ferrous metals) such as British petroleum and agricultural products has shrunk to varying degrees. In the European financial futures market represented by Britain and Germany, exchange rate, interest rate and stock index futures all occupy an important position in the world futures market with developed financial system, huge financial capital, numerous financial institutions and excellent management talents.
2. Technological and institutional innovation and the comparative advantage of European futures market. Since 1990, the European futures market has formed a cost comparative advantage through electronic trading with the help of the innovation of trading methods, and realized the rapid growth of the financial futures market. In 2002, with the help of electronic transactions, EUREX broke through the regional boundaries of Europe and gradually established its own American derivatives market. In addition, the European Futures Exchange has brought new vitality to the development of the financial futures market through the innovation of its governance structure. At present, most futures and stock exchanges in Europe are profit-oriented corporate exchanges. However, due to the influence of traditional ideas, the American futures market obviously lags behind Europe in electronic trading and corporatization, which affects the competitive advantage of the American futures market to some extent.
Competition and development of futures market in Asia-Pacific region
The rise of emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region stems from the huge demand for safe haven in the region. CFTC) 1999 pointed out that the success of emerging markets mainly meets the needs of regional risk management. For example, developed industries provide sufficient hedging demand for Japanese industrial futures trading. At present, Japan's platinum, palladium and rubber futures markets rank first in the world, while gold and gasoline futures markets rank second in the world. The development of Korean financial market provides a strong demand for hedging financial futures trading. The annual trading volume of KOSPI 200 option contract on Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) increased by more than 40 times in the five years from 1998 to 2002, and the trading volume of 200 1-2002 ranked first in the global futures exchange for two consecutive years, fully demonstrating the development potential of emerging markets. Promoting the marketization process and joining WTO will provide huge potential hedging demand for the futures trading of bulk basic products in China. Globally, China is second only to the United States in terms of total material resources. With the deepening of economic reform and the acceleration of post-opening-up, the demand for value preservation and hedging of bulk basic commodities and the huge growth space in the future are incomparable to other countries. China has the conditions and competitive advantages to develop into the largest world commodity futures trading center and international trade pricing center in the eastern hemisphere.
Three. Changes in the competition pattern of futures markets in countries or regions
In a certain country or region, the development of futures market is also unbalanced. From the changes of the competition pattern in the futures markets of the United States, Europe and Japan, it can be found that the futures market, as a financial derivative instruments with price discovery and risk avoidance, will inevitably find a geographical location with the most commercial demand, the most concentrated capital, the strongest liquidity, the most advanced technology, the richest human capital, the lowest transaction cost and the most favorable function. This is the growth center that can promote regional economic growth in the theory of "regional growth pole", which will produce the aggregation effect of funds, information, talents and technology, and make the futures market form a comparative advantage in the national or regional competition.
1. American futures market: the formation of a competitive pattern in which Chicago and new york coexist. At its peak, there were nearly 20 futures exchanges in the United States. After competition, some exchanges were eliminated and some exchanges were merged and reorganized. At present, there are seven futures exchanges in the United States. From the perspective of regional distribution, both commodity futures and financial futures show a trend of concentration in Chicago and new york.
By studying the changes of the competition pattern in the American futures market, we can find that a series of innovations of historical significance to the world futures market are not all produced in the Chicago Board of Trade. For example, the Minneapolis Exchange of 189 1 created the world's first modern futures clearing system. 1982, the Kansas City Stock Exchange launched the world's first stock index futures contract-the value line index futures contract. However, the economic background of Minneapolis, Kansas and other cities and their position in the American economy make it difficult for these exchanges to win the competition with the Chicago Board of Trade. The unique geographical advantage and the comparative advantage formed by its important position in the production and circulation of agricultural products in the United States determine that the Chicago Board of Trade can become the agricultural futures trading center in the United States and even the world. Chicago started from the agricultural futures market, and successfully launched financial futures in the1970s, which formed an important comparative advantage in knowledge, talents and capital, and eventually developed into the largest financial derivatives trading center in the United States and even the world. At present, there are mainly Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in Chicago. These three futures exchanges have been among the top ten futures exchanges in the world for many years, with 200 1 ranking third, fifth and sixth respectively. New york is the most important international financial center in the world, and its futures trading also occupies an important position in the global futures market. In 200 1 year, NYMEX's futures and options trading volume ranked ninth and sixth in the world, among which NYMEX's crude oil and other energy commodity futures, precious metal futures such as gold and silver, and cotton and other agricultural products futures of the New York Futures Exchange (MYBT) ranked among the top in the United States and the world.
2. European futures market: the challenges faced by London and the rise of Frankfurt. London, as an international financial center as famous as new york and Tokyo, has become the world metal futures trading center and the European financial futures trading center with its advanced industry and developed financial industry. The introduction of the euro is an important milestone in the development history of European financial markets, which has prompted major changes in the internal structure of the entire European financial market and futures market. First of all, Frankfurt, Germany, where the central bank of the euro zone is located, has gradually become an international financial center dominated by the euro zone. After the introduction of the euro, 1 1 countries in Europe adopted the euro as the common currency, which fundamentally eliminated the differences between the currencies and interest rates of these 1 1 countries. As a result, interest rate futures based on domestic interest rates in other countries in the euro zone lost market demand, and the financial futures market in the euro zone quickly concentrated in EUREX. Secondly, EUREX has occupied more than 90% of the market share of treasury bond futures contracts in the London International Futures Options Exchange (LIFFE) by taking active and effective measures such as electronic trading, and has become one of the fastest growing futures exchanges in the world. However, Britain did not join the euro in the first batch at 1999, and lost some transactions in the euro area's money market and capital market. As far as the futures market is concerned, London's dominance in the European financial futures market has been replaced by EUREX, which is headquartered in Frankfurt, and Frankfurt has risen rapidly.
3. Japanese futures market: Tokyo becomes a derivatives futures trading center. Judging from the overall pattern of Japan's futures market, its main feature is a large number of exchanges, and the same product is listed and traded in multiple futures markets in different regions at the same time. Take commodity futures as an example. Before 1984, there were more than 16 commodity futures exchanges in Japan. After the merger and reorganization, there are now seven commodity exchanges, and at least three exchanges are listed and traded in soybeans alone. In the Japanese futures market, Tokyo's geographical location and its economic and financial status in Japan and even the world determine that Tokyo's futures exchange has a strong comparative advantage. In 2002, the total amount of Tokyo commodity futures (Tokyo Commodity Exchange and TGE combined) accounted for 67.9% of its national market share. With the continuous development of Japanese futures market, further merger and reorganization between futures exchanges has become an inevitable trend.
Fourthly, the development of competition and innovation in the futures market and its enlightenment.
From the theoretical and empirical point of view, it is not difficult to find that the environment of futures market is different between different countries or regions and within a country or region. If a country or region wants to develop the futures market, it must implement the corresponding development model and industrial policy according to its own actual situation, form the comparative advantage of its own or local futures market, and gain a favorable position in the competition.
(A) competition and innovation in the futures market between different countries or regions
1. Develop domestic futures varieties with comparative advantages and promote the formation of comparative advantages through cooperation. Due to the inflexibility of material resources and the differences in economic openness, laws and humanities between different countries or regions, the futures market of a country or region can usually only develop its own futures varieties with comparative advantages according to its own basic conditions. Judging from the situation in China, China and the United States have similar natural resources, and they are both major producers, consumers and traders of agricultural products, energy and mineral resources. For example, China ranks 1 in wheat production, 2nd in corn production, 4th in soybean production and 2nd in import volume. It has a solid spot foundation and a huge demand for maintaining and avoiding risks in commodity futures such as agricultural products.
After China's entry into WTO, with the development of market economy, the degree of marketization and internationalization of various domestic commodities has been continuously improved, and the price fluctuation will be more intense. Spot enterprises need futures market to avoid risks and use futures prices to guide production and operation.
At the same time, China is far away from the international futures trading center, and using the international futures market to hedge its value is like "buying cows from other mountains", which is not conducive to enterprise risk management. Therefore, China has the strongest competitive advantage in developing commodity futures market in the Eastern Hemisphere, and the government should formulate a series of industrial policies to promote the development of commodity futures market from the aspect of variety innovation.
2. Seek cooperation with complementary futures markets to promote the formation of comparative advantages in domestic or local futures markets. To develop the futures market, a country or region must first carefully analyze the relationship with other countries or regions, and strengthen its competitive advantage in the futures market through cooperation with complementary countries or regions with large differences in resource endowments. For example, in the past 20 years, merger and networking have become a new strategy for futures markets in various countries to cope with competition. Since 1990, Singapore International Finance Exchange (SIMEX) and dozens of international futures exchanges, such as CME, CBOT and EUREX, CME and NYMEX, have achieved cross-continent, cross-country and cross-city interconnection, improved resource endowment conditions, exchanged needed goods and shared resources and markets. Judging from the situation in China, China and the United States are countries with similar material resources endowments, and they are in a competitive relationship in commodity futures trading. However, the two countries are located in the eastern and western hemispheres and form a complementary relationship in trading time. Therefore, if the two countries can cooperate in online trading, cross settlement and other futures trading of agricultural products, they can realize 24-hour all-day trading, thus sharing relevant resources and markets around the world and enhancing their competitive advantage.
(2) Competition and innovative development of the futures market in the same country or region
The key to gain a comparative advantage in the futures market competition in the same country or region lies in whether the futures market can successfully integrate various elements and conditions of the country or region, thus promoting the formation of the innovation ability of the futures market in terms of varieties, technologies and systems, and enhancing the core competitiveness of the futures market. Therefore, although this paper analyzes the deep reasons for the formation of the competition pattern in the futures market from the external environment, both the external environment and the innovation ability of the futures market itself are indispensable in the process of competition and development in the futures market. A good external environment helps to improve the innovation ability of the futures market, and the strong innovation ability of the futures market helps to better integrate various available external resource conditions, thus forming the comparative advantage of the futures market.
1. According to the characteristics of regional resource endowments, develop the futures varieties with the most comparative advantages. The economic and legal environment of the futures market in the same country or region is similar, so the futures market in a country or region is usually competitive. With the development of the futures market in a country or region, the number of futures markets usually goes through the integration process from more to less. As mentioned above, resource endowment is the key factor to determine the competitive advantage of futures market, and the production, consumption and circulation of each commodity have certain laws and characteristics. Futures varieties based on spot commodities, especially commodity futures, have a relatively distinct concept of territoriality.
This territorial concept requires the futures market to set the benchmark of futures price, that is, the physical delivery place, in the most developed area of relevant spot circulation. In this region, the physical resources of related commodities are the richest, the spot-related enterprises are the most concentrated, the spot trade is the most active, and the hedging demand is the strongest. Only in this way can the futures market keep close and smooth contact with the spot market. In other words, specific areas are suitable for futures trading of specific varieties, and the futures market should choose areas with resource endowment advantages to carry out futures trading of related varieties. Take the soybean futures in China agricultural futures market as an example. The production, distribution or processing centers of domestic soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil are located in Dalian and the Yangtze River Delta economic circle respectively. According to this basic feature, the price reference places of domestic soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil futures markets should be located in corresponding regions respectively, that is, only by carrying out futures trading of related futures varieties in appropriate regions can the price discovery and risk avoidance functions of futures markets be fully exerted.
2. Through futures innovation, we should integrate the internal factors and conditions of our country or region to form a comparative advantage. With the popularity of electronic trading and online trading, the geographical location of futures exchanges is no longer as important as before. Therefore, in the process of competition and development of the futures market, we should adapt to the new economic era and changes in market demand, gradually dilute the regional concept of futures exchanges, constantly expand and extend the market radiation range through variety innovation, contract design and technological innovation, and gather all kinds of resource endowments in China or the region as much as possible to form comparative advantages so as to enhance competitiveness. Taking the commodity futures market as an example, in terms of variety innovation, we should carefully analyze the characteristics of resource endowment in China or regions, and make the futures market share the resource endowment in China or regions by scientifically locating different regions where various varieties are suitable for futures trading; In terms of contract design, some futures markets that do not have capital advantages design mini-contracts by lowering the specifications of futures contracts to attract small and medium-sized investors, thus expanding the coverage of futures markets to investors, fully tapping speculative capital and promoting the growth of market liquidity. For example, Japan's Central Futures Exchange is located in Nagoya, a city in central Japan, and obviously does not have the necessary conditions like Tokyo. However, in recent years, the trading scale of the Central Futures Exchange has increased rapidly through the listing of mini-oil contracts. In 2002, its share in the Japanese commodity futures market reached 2 1.7%, surpassing the Tokyo Grain Commodity Exchange to become the second largest futures market in Japan. In terms of technological innovation, the futures market can realize the invisibility of trading through online trading, which makes the futures market infinitely extended in space and expands the radiation range of the futures market, thus gathering investors and capital in a larger scope; In addition, with the development of China's economy and the improvement of opening up to the outside world, QFII system will be established in the futures market, foreign investors will be introduced, and corresponding channels will be opened up to meet the needs of overseas hedging and investment.