Comments on Thailand's sharp rise in rice Yang Yongguang, the research center of fixed income securities in Guohai, as the global rice price benchmark, rose from 580 US dollars per ton to 760 US dollars per ton on the 27th, an increase of more than 30%, reaching the highest point in 20 years. At the same time, Vietnam and India, the second and third largest rice exporters in the world, drastically reduced their rice exports, and the global rice supply decreased 1/3. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission of China announced on March 28th that it would raise the minimum purchase price of grain again. In this regard, we believe that higher rice prices will further increase domestic inflationary pressure, and it is inevitable that food prices will rise again in the second half of the year. It is estimated that compared with the current level, the growth rate may be above 65,438+00%. I. Current Situation of Grain Planting In order to curb the rise of grain prices, in 2007, the China Municipal Government chose the target that is the easiest to control grain prices. In the second half of 2007, not only the export tax rate of grain was raised, but also the state-owned grain reserves were sold off in the market many times, which led to the strange scene that foreign food prices rose sharply and domestic food prices fell slightly. In 2007, the price of grain only rose by 6%, far below the average increase of more than 20% in the whole food category, far below the increase of more than 20% in agricultural products and 20% in the wages of migrant workers in the same period. Based on the current price estimation, the net income of two rural laborers after deducting the cost is about 5000 yuan, while the annual net income of one laborer working outside the home is about 10000 yuan, which has dampened the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain to some extent. According to the survey in mid-March, Dingcheng District, Changde, one of the main grain producing areas in Hunan Province, which has been rated as an advanced county in grain production for two consecutive years, will reduce the rice planting area by 3. 1% this year, and the planting area of other grain crops will also decrease steadily. At the same time, affected by the market economy and urbanization process, the rural labor force who went out to work continued to increase, and the rural agricultural labor force decreased by 7.7% compared with the previous year. In addition, many farmers planted double-season rice last year, but this year they will switch to one-season rice, which will further reduce rice production. Northeast China is currently suffering from the worst drought in 50 years, with 40% of crops suffering from drought. April will be the most important time for spring ploughing. If there is no large-scale precipitation, the harvest of major crops such as corn will drop sharply this year. At the same time, farmers' enthusiasm for planting in Northeast China has also dropped significantly, and the rent for farming has dropped significantly. According to the forward grain futures price in the domestic futures market, the grain price will increase by more than 10% in the second half of the year. Statistical time: March 14. Second, the current situation of grain sales is in the spring ploughing period, and farmers urgently need to sell last year's grain reserves to buy seeds, fertilizers and other materials needed for spring ploughing. It is urgent to sell grain, and the amount of grain sold is relatively large. However, due to the snowstorm, a large number of pigs, cattle and other livestock were frozen to death, the demand for feed was small, and the willingness of grain processing enterprises to buy grain (such as corn) was not strong, which made it difficult for farmers to sell grain in the first quarter and further hit the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain. Table: The market price of rice in February 2008. At present, the spot price of grain is in a relatively weak period. It is estimated that the increase of grain price will be in June when spring ploughing ends, and the national grain production reduction can be generally predicted. Three. The Impact of Thailand's Rice Price Increase on Food Price In 2007, China's total grain export was 99 1 10,000 tons, but the import was less than10.6 million tons, and 90% of the imported rice came from Thailand. The price of rice in Thailand has risen to 760 US dollars per ton (equivalent to about 5320 yuan), which is much higher than the average price of rice in China. Therefore, it is expected that the speed of domestic rice export will accelerate, which will aggravate the situation of insufficient food supply in the coming months. Because domestic corn and wheat prices are still in a weak market pattern, even if domestic rice is slightly raised by Thailand, it will have little impact on the overall grain. Moreover, the weight of food price in CPI is small, about below 4%, which has little effect on CPI in the short term. However, food prices are the source of rising food prices. When the price of food rises, the price of flour and feed rises, and the price of meat and pasta will rise. According to the price relationship of grain and oil crops, cotton, sugar and other crops, the rise of grain prices will also push up the prices of other crops ... Therefore, in the medium and long term, the rise of grain prices will definitely push up the prices of the whole food category and aggravate the pressure of inflation in the future. We believe that the rise of rice prices in Thailand is a strong signal of the shortage of world grain stocks (the lowest level in more than 20 years), and it also shows that the rise of agricultural product prices is far from over. Four. Shortly before the National Development and Reform Commission raised the minimum purchase price of grain, a leader of the National Development and Reform Commission made an analysis of the domestic price situation. He pointed out that the current low food prices have suppressed the enthusiasm of farmers, and there should be room for rising food prices in the future. The National Development and Reform Commission raised the minimum purchase price this time, fully realizing that a bumper harvest of grain is the most effective way to curb inflation. Although it may have an impact on CPI in the short term, it will curb price increases in the medium and long term. However, due to the small increase in the minimum purchase price, the cumulative minimum purchase price of rice increased by 9- 10% and the minimum purchase price of wheat increased by 4-7%. Among them, the minimum purchase price of early indica rice (third-class, the same below), mid-late indica rice and japonica rice per 50 kg was increased to 77 yuan, 79 yuan and 82 yuan respectively, and the minimum purchase price increased by 7 yuan compared with 2007; The minimum purchase prices of white wheat, red wheat and mixed wheat were raised to 77 yuan, 72 yuan and 72 yuan respectively. Table: Early indica rice unit: Yuan/50kg (mid-March 2008

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