The international oil price has exceeded $0/00 per barrel.
On February 1 day, the international oil price of electronic disks continued to remain above $0/00 per barrel during Asian trading hours. The day before, the international oil price soared, and the Brent crude oil futures price on the London Intercontinental Exchange reached $65,438 +00 1.0 1 a barrel. This is the first time since June 2008 that international oil prices have re-entered the 100 mark. At 65438+1October 3 1 day, the price of crude oil futures in new york market rose by more than 3% to 92. 19 USD per barrel. This bull market is mainly caused by geopolitical factors such as the turmoil in Egypt.
Egypt is not a big oil producer, but the Suez Canal is an important channel for crude oil transportation in the Middle East. Every day, 2.4 million barrels of crude oil are transported through the Suez Canal, which is close to the daily output of Iraq or Brazil. The market is worried that the key energy transportation channel may be blocked, which will cause supply disruption in some parts of the world. Suez canal operator 65438+1October 3 1 confirmed that the canal shipping was normal that day.
Don’t panic！ Is the main force still diving this time? Locked stocks are likely to be saved! May the stock market change dramatically in March? The hidden funds behind the tug of war! 1 In the morning, the international oil price fell slightly in Asian trading hours. An investment analyst at Philip Futures Company in Singapore said that this was due to some high profit-taking in the purchase. After all, oil prices are at their highest level in 27 months. He predicted that the decline in oil prices was only temporary, and if the tension in Egypt continued, oil prices might rise further.
Looking at 20 10, despite the ups and downs of international oil prices, the upward trend driven by the fundamentals of world economic recovery is generally established.
The International Monetary Fund recently raised its global economic growth forecast to 4.4% this year, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the forecast made in June 2008+last year 10. Asia, Africa and Latin America are expected to continue to maintain strong growth, and the growth prospects of developed countries are also relatively optimistic, and the risk of a double dip in the global economy is basically ruled out. Therefore, the global daily demand for crude oil may increase substantially in 20 1 1 year, and the change of supply and demand will support the rise of oil prices.
This round of oil price rise is also closely related to financial factors. Last year, the Federal Reserve launched a new round of quantitative easing policy in June, 165438+ 10, and the released dollar liquidity had a great impact on the international oil market. Taking the Fed's move as the time node, the international oil price changed the previous trend of hovering between 60-80 dollars, reached above 90 dollars in the middle of 65438+February last year, and stood at the 100 dollar mark again at the end of 65438+ 10 this year, which exceeded the expectations of many analysts. With the increasing liquidity of the US dollar, the US dollar index, which measures the exchange rate trend of the US dollar against other major international currencies, fell by 1.6% in June this year. As the US dollar is the main currency of international crude oil, the "seesaw" effect of the depreciation of the US dollar on the rise of oil prices is very obvious.
Analysts believe that the international oil price of 20 1 1 is expected to rise steadily, and whether there will be an irrational rise depends on the comprehensive effects of market supply and demand, global liquidity and geopolitical factors.
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