Especially after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out in February this year, the tight supply and demand of global energy and food led to price increases.
Some countries that are highly dependent on food imports have even experienced a food crisis.
Some time ago, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) also issued early warning of food crisis for many times, which once again showed that global price rise is a foregone conclusion.
With the approach of July, today Lao Dao wants to look forward to the future trends of urea, soybean meal and domestic oil prices.
According to the new news, the prices of urea, soybean meal and oil, which have been rising all the way, may fall in the coming July.
This is definitely a good thing for us farmers. Let's talk about the specific situation together.
First of all, the price of urea has been rising continuously since last year. In some areas, the price of urea even exceeds 3000 yuan per ton, and it is still rising.
Now the summer harvest is almost over, and the summer broadcast will begin soon. If the price of urea continues to rise, it will definitely further increase farmers' breeding costs.
According to the latest news known in Lao Dao, the state has increased the comprehensive subsidy for agricultural materials by 654.38+0 billion yuan to help farmers cope with the rising prices of agricultural materials. In order to stabilize the rising prices of agricultural materials, the state has also launched a series of regulatory actions to put in reserve fertilizers.
For example, Yuntianhua International Group continued to put in nearly 1 10,000 tons of reserve fertilizer some time ago.
It is believed that with the gradual implementation of national regulatory actions, the rising urea fertilizer price will also usher in a downward trend.
For us farmers, although the breeding cost is high this year, there are a series of national regulatory guarantees, and I believe that everyone's breeding income will not be bad.
Compared with the rising trend of agricultural products prices, soybean meal prices are likely to continue to decline in the future.
In May this year, the domestic soybean meal price once rose to 5000 yuan per ton. The price of soybean meal continued to fluctuate in June, and now the basic soybean meal price has dropped to 4500 yuan per ton.
In July, with the acceleration of the elimination of pig production capacity at the grass-roots level, it is expected that feed consumption demand will fluctuate again, and the price of soybean meal is likely to show a downward trend again. It is estimated that the decline will be maintained at 200~300 yuan per ton.
The price of soybean meal will probably reach 4100 ~ 4,200 yuan per ton this year.
It can be seen that this kind of breeding cost can usher in a relatively controllable and favorable change in the second half of this year.
So is it possible for the oil price that has been rising all the way in July to usher in a downward adjustment? Lao Dao continues to create hope for everyone.
First of all, the core factor affecting oil prices is the change of international crude oil prices. Both American crude oil and Brent crude oil have recently reached 120 USD/barrel.
Affected by the international crude oil price increase, it is predicted that the domestic prices of 92 and 95 gasoline and zero diesel will probably rise again in the new round of refined oil price adjustment to be launched on June 14.
Now, because the EU has increased its sanctions against Russia, it is unlikely to solve the tight supply and demand of crude oil in a short time. Therefore, even if the oil price does not rise sharply in July, the possibility of a small increase still exists.
For our farmers, we should also pay attention to the relevant oil reserves. After all, the demand for mechanized operations in spring ploughing, summer harvest and autumn harvest is bound to continue to increase farmers' expenditure on refined oil.
Therefore, if oil prices continue to rise, it will further increase farmers' burden of farming.
During this period, I hope that everyone can make a good reserve of related oil products and focus on collecting a series of preferential activities organized by local gas stations.
(For reference only)
In 2022, we will comprehensively promote rural revitalization. Although we farmers will face many challenges, there are also many opportunities.
Lao Dao firmly believes that under the guarantee of various national policies to support agriculture, rural areas and farmers, the farming income of our farmers can grow continuously. Here, I also call on everyone to act together. Click on the lower right corner of the article to praise the national rural revitalization strategy.