However, from the emotional level, this RRR cut is conducive to alleviating the market's concerns about the centralized maturity of MLF and the acceleration of local debt supply. It is expected that the funds in the tax period will be smooth and excessive, breaking the previous "silent operation" of monetary policy, which may prompt the funds to gradually change from stable and tight to stable and loose, which is beneficial to the upward trend of bonds.
from a fundamental point of view, it is hard to say that the current economic situation has obviously deteriorated. In the whole year, it is more likely that the growth rate will be moderate and downward, which means that it is difficult for the maturity bonds to rise steeply. In the short term, the unexpected RRR cut may ignite the enthusiasm of the bond market, but at present, the fundamental situation and policy easing may be difficult to break the top constraint of the term debt, and the continuous upward breakthrough of the term debt still needs more favorable support. In the absence of other significant profits, it is suggested that there may be a risk of callback or consolidation after the bond rises. If the policy interest rate is lowered and the economy declines more than expected, the possibility of a smooth upward trend of treasury bonds futures will not be ruled out.
On the face of it, after the National People's Congress mentioned the RRR cut, the national debt futures opened higher the next day, and the 1-year national debt fell by 3% in the day. The landing of this RRR cut may also lead to the concentrated release of multi-emotions, but the debt may face short-term adjustment in the late period of rapid rise, paying attention to the pressure level of 2.9% and 2.8% of the 1-year national debt.
This time, it was only two days from the time when the National People's Congress mentioned the RRR cut to the time when the overall RRR cut was announced. The speed and intensity exceeded market expectations, and the bond market was enthusiastic about doing more. However, based on the current macro-fundamental situation, it is less likely that the monetary policy will be greatly relaxed when there is little downward pressure on the economy, instead of "flooding", more attention will be paid to the business pressure and potential risks brought about by rising commodity prices.
we believe that the main purpose of this RRR cut may include the following points: first, optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, reduce the financing cost of enterprises through the transmission of financial institutions, and adjust the unbalanced factors in economic recovery. The increase in commodity prices has squeezed the profits of enterprises, which has brought great pressure on the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises. The recovery of the prosperity of small and medium-sized enterprises is strongly related to the areas where the previous economic recovery was slow, and it is also of great significance to stabilize employment. This RRR cut is conducive to increasing the long-term available funds of financial institutions and enhancing support for the real economy; The second is to hedge the liquidity gap. The central bank announced that part of the funds released by this RRR cut will be used to replace the expired MLF and hedge the July tax gap, and the total amount of liquidity in the banking system will remain stable; The third is to create a suitable liquidity environment for supply-side structural reform and local debt issuance in the second half of the year.