The semi-annual performance forecast of the group's pig enterprises in 200210, in which Mu Yuan shares earned 940-102 million yuan in the first half of the year, Tiankang Bio earned 220-260 million yuan in the first half of the year, Tang Renshen earned 65,438+7-230 million yuan in the first half of the year, Jinxin Nong earned 300-400 million yuan in the first half of the year, and Zheng Hong Science and Technology Co., Ltd. lost 5.5 in the first half of the year. Zhengbang Technology lost 65.438+0.2-65.438+0.45 billion yuan in the first half of the year, Shi Wen shares lost 2.26-2.56 billion yuan, and New Hope lost 65.438+0.95-3.45 billion yuan in the first half of the year.
Muyuan is a well-deserved leader in pig breeding in China. Compared with other pig enterprises, the biggest difference lies in the breeding mode. Other listed pig enterprises mostly adopt the model of "company+farmer", while Mu Yuan shares are all self-operated. Although "company+farmers" can greatly reduce the initial investment in pig breeding, there is still a certain gap from the profitability of self-breeding. Although the pig price has been falling in the first half of the year, the pig price was still ideal before April, and there was still a high profit from self-breeding.
The price of pigs dropped rapidly in May and June, but the pastoral source did not lose money, because the breeding cost of pastoral source was low. According to professional analysis, the cost per mu of land can be controlled at the level of 7 yuan, even lower than the cost of rural households without considering the depreciation of labor and pens. Even if the pig price drops sharply in May and June, Muyuan can still guarantee a certain profit in the second quarter.
Compared with other groups, the brilliance of Mu Yuan is that Mu Yuan sold a large number of sows and piglets in the second quarter, which not only reduced its own scale and losses, but also made a slight profit on piglets and sows. It is said that Mu Yuan shares are sold to many piglets in Tianbang and Zhengbang, which is also one of the important factors for Mu Yuan's profit.
Compared with animal husbandry that only develops pig industry, the cleverness of other interest groups lies in developing multi-dimensional industries, such as pig farms, vaccine enterprises and feed enterprises in Tiankang, pig farms, pig slaughterhouses and meat deep processing enterprises in Tang Renshen, feed enterprises, breeding pig farms, grain trade, animal protection enterprises and pig custody services in Jinxinnong.
Although these groups don't necessarily make money raising pigs, they must make money from natural vaccines and feed, from pig slaughtering and deep processing, and from gold feed, animal protection and pig custody services. In addition, it is said that after the listing of live pig futures, gold relies on the profit of live pig futures 1 100 million yuan in the first half of the year.
Although Zheng Hong Science and Technology has other business sectors such as feed, meat processing, biological veterinary drugs, import and export trade, Tianbang has other business sectors such as feed, biological products, engineering construction, Zhengbang has other industrial sectors such as planting, food, financial control, agricultural products, and New Hope has other industries such as feed, meat processing, real estate and infrastructure, dairy industry, FMCG, etc., all of them have suffered losses to varying degrees. I think there are several main reasons:
1. The pig industry developed too fast and did not stop loss in time. In the first two years, the pig price was high, and the pig industry showed a profiteering period. It can be said that pigs can make money. The major pig-raising groups are frantically expanding their production and expanding everywhere. In the process of restoring the pig production capacity in China, they left a heavy sum. Because the reserve capacity can't keep up, some enterprises can only buy piglets and reserve sows from companies such as Muyuan, which "benefits" Muyuan and increases their own breeding.
2. The breeding cost is high. As mentioned above, the key point for the livestock source to make huge profits lies in the ideal control of breeding cost, while most of these other groups are in the form of "company+farmers". After the pig price falls below the cost line, the profits earned by farmers become the burden of enterprises. In addition, many loss-making sows were purchased from other places in the high-priced period last year, which further increased the breeding cost and aggravated the loss.
3. The prevention and control effects of non-plague are different. Although no listed pig enterprise reported the occurrence of non-plague in the first half of the year, it is believed that friends in the front line of breeding know that there was a high incidence in the north last winter, and some enterprises in the south were not spared in May and June. Although there are relatively mature treatment schemes at present, the occurrence of non-plague has caused considerable losses.
In fact, the current pig industry is good for free-range farmers, because after the pig price fell below the cost line, the expansion of pig enterprises of major groups basically stopped, and all the pig farms that have been built stopped, and the pig farms that have not yet been built also ran aground, which will delay the scale process of pig breeding in China and give free-range farmers more development time. But in any case, the ultimate goal of raising pigs is price and profit. Everyone is more concerned about the second half of the year. Can the agreed price increase still come?
To sum up, in a word, it can go up, but the increase will not be great, profitable but meager. I believe you have seen many reasons. Last winter, non-plague in the north and south affected aquaculture. After the pig price falls, the old pig farmers take the initiative to reduce the production capacity, and the big chemical fertilizer that affects the pig price will gradually be cleared. Pork consumption is expected to improve after the temperature drops. Although various factors indicate that the pig price will rise, it is difficult to see a big increase under the restriction of capacity recovery.
I think the second half of the year will still be a profitable period. Piglet outsourcing has opportunities, but it is risky. There is basically no chance of gaining weight twice. I also advise you to give up at the equivalent pig farm as soon as possible. The more you raise, the more you lose.