What is the impact of purchase restriction on housing prices?
However, it should be noted that as more and more second-tier cities restart the purchase restriction, third-and fourth-tier cities in nearby second-tier cities may also usher in a new round of housing price increases.
For example, 20 10, Hangzhou ranks first in the housing price list, because Hangzhou's housing prices are too high, benefiting other cities in Zhejiang Province. According to the data of 20 10 national housing price list, except Hangzhou, five of the top 20 cities are from Zhejiang, among which Wenzhou, Ningbo and other cities even surpass Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
House prices in major cities
However, after large-scale purchase restrictions, housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities will come to a fork in the road.
In one case, some third-and fourth-tier cities may usher in a new wave of housing price increases due to the need for spillover after the purchase restriction in big cities.
On the other hand, the purchase restriction is a signal, which has the effect of lowering expectations. Some property buyers believe that the announcement of this round of purchase restriction policy will be a signal that the state will tighten the property market policy, thus delaying the time to enter the market and even giving up buying a house. As a result, shopping malls need to shrink, which will make house prices around big cities fall like a cliff.
Whether it goes up or down depends on whether there is new capital contribution. A shares, Hong Kong stocks, US dollars or gold futures? Let's wipe our eyes and wait.
first-tier city
Housing prices in first-tier cities are the vane of housing prices in China. In the government's view, it is definitely not feasible to allow the uncontrolled rise in housing prices in first-tier cities. Therefore, the implementation of the purchase restriction policy will stabilize housing prices, so the property market is temporarily risk-free.
However, the purchase restriction is not to raise housing prices, nor to curb housing prices, but to freeze housing prices and avoid the collapse of the property market. However, freezing anything for a long time will show signs of loosening.
Taking Beijing as an example, from the trend of Beijing's housing price data in the past five years, it can be seen that Beijing's housing prices have three obvious falling nodes, namely, the middle of 20 10, the beginning of 20 12 and the third quarter of 20 14. These three time points are just the time when Beijing announced the purchase restriction policy, for example, 20160. 20 14- 10, Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will not loosen the purchase restriction order, let alone cancel it, and continue to implement the real estate purchase restriction policy at this stage.
In other words, whenever the real estate purchase restriction policy or the purchase restriction policy is strengthened, Beijing's housing prices will drop significantly, and I believe this time will be no exception.
On the other hand, after the house prices fell, Beijing's house prices ushered in a significant rebound. In other words, with the weakening of future policy effectiveness, housing prices in first-tier cities will usher in a stronger rebound after a slight decline.
The reason is that the number of people in first-tier cities is huge, and a large population has pushed up the housing demand. Although the purchase restriction policy has limited the demand in a short time, with the passage of time, many constrained demands will enter the market at some point, so the producers who need it will definitely push up the house price again.
second-tier city
From the restricted cities, it can be found that second-tier cities are mostly provincial capitals or regional key cities. Although there are many cities, compared with the previous round of purchase restriction policy, the property market is not very strong.
However, for cities such as Hefei, Zhengzhou and Nanchang. The province where they are located is itself a province with a large population outflow, and the population flowing into the provincial capital will naturally decrease accordingly, and the demand will also decline; At the same time, compared with Nanjing, Hangzhou, Xiamen and other cities, these cities lack significant competitiveness and are not enough to attract many people to return. In addition, this round of housing price increase itself is caused by many foreign funds. Once the funds are withdrawn, the housing prices in these cities will inevitably fall.