Because the financial crisis will slow down or even decline the development of the world economy, which will lead to the decline in the price of non-ferrous metals, thus reducing the cost of metal products, and then reducing the price and profit of metal products.
The financial crisis dragged down the price of non-ferrous metals to continue to fall.
/kloc-The financial crisis triggered by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September, 2005 led investors to flee the industrial metal market. This week, the prices of basic metals continued the downward trend of last week, with the prices of tin and nickel falling the most, reaching 12.85% and 1 1.95% respectively.
In terms of stocks, stocks of copper, aluminum, tin and nickel increased, while stocks of lead and zinc decreased. After hitting a new high since March 2004 last week, LME aluminum inventory surged by156,700 tons this week, with an increase of more than 13%. Domestic aluminum stocks are also increasing, which once again confirms the reality that the supply of aluminum market exceeds demand.
The gold price rebounded strongly, in line with expectations.
This week, the US financial market suffered a concentrated outbreak of subprime mortgage crisis, and the global financial market was shrouded in shadow, and the value of gold as a hedging tool was rediscovered. The price of gold rebounded strongly this week after hitting the lowest point of the year last Friday. COMEX gold futures prices rose 16%, while domestic gold futures rose 1 1%. In the past few weeks, due to the rise of the US dollar and the fall of oil prices, the price of gold has continued to fall, and even hit a low point in the year last Friday. This week's pull-up is not only the discovery of safe-haven value, but also a revision of the previous large decline. The consumer price index of the United States and the European Union continued to rise in August, reaching 5.4%(CPI) and 3.8%(HICP) respectively. However, due to the decline in energy, automobile and housing prices, the growth rate dropped slightly from last month. However, the core CPI index of the United States increased by 2.5% compared with the same period of last year, which is still far higher than the Fed's long-term policy target 1.5%-2%. China's CPI growth rate dropped to 4.9%, but PPI growth rate continued to rise to 10. 1%, hitting a new high of 10 for three consecutive months. This shows that the price increase of domestic means of production has not been effectively controlled, which has put great pressure on the decline of CPI index and the inflation prospect is not optimistic. We still believe that the domestic CPI index will continue to rise in the future. Affected by this, the price of gold will remain volatile in the near future, and it is unlikely to fall deeply again, which is optimistic for a long time.
From June 5438 to July, the global non-ferrous metal market was mostly short of demand.
Global Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) released the supply and demand data of nonferrous metals market from June 5438 to July this week. Except for the oversupply of aluminum and zinc, there is a demand gap for other basic metals. However, the data from June to June, 65438 showed that there was an oversupply of all metals except tin and nickel, indicating that the market demand for basic metals increased relatively in July and the supply decreased relatively. This may be related to the general reduction of non-ferrous metals production in China in July.
The financial crisis dragged down the price of non-ferrous metals to continue to fall.
/kloc-in September, 2005, the financial crisis triggered by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers led investors to flee the industrial metal market. This week, the prices of basic metals continued the downward trend of last week, with the prices of tin and nickel falling the most, reaching 12.85% and 1 1.95% respectively. In terms of stocks, stocks of copper, aluminum, tin and nickel increased, while stocks of lead and zinc decreased. After hitting a new high since March 2004 last week, LME aluminum inventory surged by156,700 tons this week, with an increase of more than 13%. Domestic aluminum stocks are also increasing, which once again confirms the reality that the supply of aluminum market exceeds demand.
9. 16 Tin stocks hit a low of 5,300 tons in the year, and rose by 935 tons on Wednesday, and then fell slightly, with a weekly increase of more than 6%. Tin stocks have been declining in the first seven months of this year, which also supported the continuous upward trend of tin prices. However, due to the sluggish world economy, sluggish downstream demand and signs of recovery in stocks, the upward trend of tin prices will be suppressed. This week, under the comprehensive pressure of the financial crisis, the price of tin fell sharply.
Since the second half of 2007, nickel stocks have been exploding. Inventory has been running at a high level this year, and there is an accelerating trend in the near future, which has led to a drop of more than 35% in nickel price this year. The main reason is that the downstream stainless steel demand continues to be sluggish. To this end, many international producers have stopped supplying nickel or postponed their expansion plans. Jinchuan Group, the largest nickel producer in China, recently said that it would reduce its annual output. We expect that the supply of nickel will gradually decrease in the next few months of this year. From the downstream demand situation, in the first half of 2008, the global stainless steel output decreased by 1.8% year-on-year to14.8 million tons.
1 Output decreased by 2.9% in the first quarter and 0.6% in the second quarter, and the decline in demand slowed down. In July, the four major stainless steel producers in China actually exported 4033 1.2 1 10,000 tons, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the previous month, which also proved that the international demand for stainless steel has eased. The demand for nickel will gradually increase. Considering the supply and demand factors, we believe that nickel prices will start to stabilize and rebound this year.
The gold price rebounded strongly, in line with expectations.
This week, the US financial market suffered a concentrated outbreak of subprime mortgage crisis, and the global financial market was shrouded in shadow, and the value of gold as a hedging tool was rediscovered. The price of gold rebounded strongly this week after hitting the lowest point of the year last Friday. COMEX gold futures prices rose 16%, while domestic gold futures rose 1 1%. In the past few weeks, due to the rise of the US dollar and the fall of oil prices, the price of gold has continued to fall, and even hit a low point in the year last Friday. This week's pull-up is not only the discovery of safe-haven value, but also a revision of the previous large decline.
The turmoil in the US financial market has hit investors' confidence in holding dollars as a safe haven. This week, the US dollar index was weak, closing at 77.68 points on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.6%, which became one of the reasons for supporting the strength of gold prices this week.
The consumer price index of the United States and the European Union continued to rise in August, reaching 5.4%(CPI) and 3.8%(HICP) respectively. However, due to the decline in energy, automobile and housing prices, the growth rate dropped slightly from last month. However, the core CPI index of the United States increased by 2.5% compared with the same period of last year, which is still far higher than the Fed's long-term policy target 1.5%-2%. China's CPI growth rate dropped to 4.9%, but PPI growth rate continued to rise to 10. 1%, hitting a new high of 10 for three consecutive months. This shows that the price increase of domestic means of production has not been effectively controlled, which has put great pressure on the decline of CPI index and the inflation prospect is not optimistic. On Monday (15), the measures taken by the China government to reduce the loan interest rate and the deposit reserve ratio will, to some extent, expand the amount of base money and increase the inflation risk. To sum up, we still believe that the domestic CPI index will continue to rise in the future. Affected by this, the price of gold will remain volatile in the near future, and it is unlikely to fall deeply again, which is optimistic for a long time.
. com . cn/2008 1020/info 2008 1020754 . html
Since the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, it has had a major negative impact on the operation of the world economy. According to analysis, the steady growth of the global economy in the past few years has ended and has begun to enter a new adjustment cycle. The great changes in the world economic situation have had a great impact on the development of China's non-ferrous metal industry.
Spot and futures coexist in domestic and foreign nonferrous metal markets. Copper and other major nonferrous metal futures derivative financial products have outstanding attributes, and the price trend is closely related to the financial situation, which is a commodity closely related to the virtual economy and the real economy. The intensification of the financial crisis in the United States made investors lose confidence in almost all financial commodities and quit the futures market, which directly led to the decline in the prices of global financial commodities (including oil, non-ferrous metal futures and other derivative financial commodities). Due to the basic integration of domestic and foreign non-ferrous metal markets, the prices of major non-ferrous metals in the international market have fallen sharply, making the domestic market not immune.
Since mid-September, 2008, with the further aggravation of the financial crisis in the United States, the prices of major non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum in China market have also fallen sharply under the influence of a new round of sharp decline in the prices of major non-ferrous metals in the international market. By mid-June, 2008, the copper price in China market was about 40,000 yuan/ton, which was 27.6% lower than that in September 10. The price of aluminum is about 1.4 million yuan/ton, which is down 10/6.7% compared with September. Lead price15,500 yuan/ton, down from September 10/3.4%. Zinc price 1. 1 10000 yuan/ton, down 19.6% from September. Nickel price 1.2 million yuan/ton, down 20% from September 1.
China is currently the largest producer and consumer of nonferrous metals in the world. The sharp drop in the price of non-ferrous metals in the market not only has an important impact on the production and operation of China's non-ferrous metals industry, but also affects related industries, and thus affects the operation of the entire national economy to a certain extent.
From the analysis of the current situation, China's aluminum and zinc industries are the areas most affected by the financial crisis, and their production and operation have been in trouble, and the whole industry is in a state of loss. Although the copper, lead and nickel industries have also been greatly affected, they have not yet fallen into the predicament of losses in the whole industry.
The nonferrous metal market is closely related to the economic cycle. Although from the long-term development trend, China nonferrous metals market has a bright future. Driven by industrialization and urbanization, the demand for major non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum is generally on the rise. However, under the background that the domestic and international nonferrous metal markets are basically integrated, the periodic changes of the world nonferrous metal market will inevitably bring about the periodic changes of the China nonferrous metal market, and the domestic demand cannot rise linearly. It is predicted that the growth rate of demand for major nonferrous metals such as copper and aluminum in China market will change periodically in the next two years. The growth rate has obviously slowed down.